November 15, 2025 …
The Kibune Stakes, the main race at Kyoto Racecourse on November 9, 2025, is shaping up to be a showdown between two top contenders: Ludique and Yamanin Schurr. With both horses sharing predicted win odds of 2.3, we’ll conduct a thorough comparison using only official data like training reports and stable comments. This article breaks down the true difference in ability between the two favorites based on data and analyzes potential dark horses that offer value beyond their odds.
First, let’s review the basic race information and the characteristics of the course.
The Kyoto 1200m dirt course has a relatively long stretch from the start to the third corner, making it a stage where a fast pace is almost guaranteed. Since there is no incline in the home stretch, sustained speed and a sharp “finishing kick” to catch the tiring front-runners will decide the race. This field is diverse, with both front-runners and closers. The race’s development will largely depend on the positioning of the two favorites. Reading this pace scenario is the first crucial “prediction point” for success.
Ludique and Yamanin Schurr stand together with predicted win odds of 2.3. While they share the same rating, a closer look at the “quality of data”—such as training, stable comments, and reasons for previous losses or wins—reveals a clear difference in their evaluations.
First up is the 4-year-old colt, Ludique, ridden by C. Demuro with a weight of 58kg. The data on this horse appears nearly perfect at first glance.
Trainer Takano gives his seal of approval on the horse’s condition, stating, “He’s been in excellent shape during this period. I think he’s doing well.” He also expresses confidence in the horse’s versatility to handle Kyoto’s fast pace: “He’s the type that can run well regardless of the course or pace.” “Excellent shape” is the highest praise from a stable, suggesting no concerns.
The final workout was on Wednesday, November 5, on the Ritto training track’s slope course.
11/5 (Wed) Ritto Slope, Good: 56.5 – 40.9 – 26.3 – 12.3, cantering with plenty in hand.
While the time itself is average, the notes “cantering with plenty in hand” and “good finishing kick” are significant. The workout analysis states, “His spirit is strong, bordering on reckless, but his leg power is impressive. Great shape.” How his strong temperament will affect the race is unknown, but his overwhelming power and the “great shape” evaluation, which backs up the stable’s comments, indicate he is in peak condition.
Jockey Atsuya Nishimura, who rode him in his last race (Oyamazaki S, 2nd), commented, “He felt good at the 4th corner and came around with a great response. The horse in front just didn’t stop.” This was a clear case of being outpaced, not a question of the horse’s ability. In fact, he was so confident that he added, “He’s a good horse, I think he’ll win soon,” essentially predicting a victory in his next start (this race).
Digging deeper into Ludique’s data reveals two “X-factors.”
His rival is the 3-year-old colt, Yamanin Schurr, ridden by the highly reliable Yuga Kawada at 57kg. He comes into this race after winning his previous start (Shinryo Tokubetsu), stepping up in class with momentum.
Trainer Takashi Saito shows confidence in his ability to compete at a higher class, commenting on his last race: “Even in a different style of race (than before), he showed his strength by winning.” He adds, “Given his temperament, a break is actually good for him. I’m looking forward to seeing him in the 3-win class,” indicating that the current rest period is a positive factor.
The final workout was on Wednesday, November 5, on the Ritto CW (wood chip) course.
11/5 (Wed) Ritto CW, Good: 86.7 – 70.9 – 55.8 – 39.8 – 11.2, cantering with plenty in hand.
A final furlong time of 11.2 seconds is excellent. The short comment “well-prepared despite the break” also suggests his fitness is not an issue. However, the tone of the “workout analysis” is noteworthy: “His drive was a bit lacking compared to his partner, but he showed his own performance. Not bad.”
Despite winning his last race, jockey Kawada’s comments were very measured: “There are still various issues, but he’s starting to show his ability, so I hope he continues to improve.” He wasn’t satisfied with just the win, suggesting the horse is still developing.
Yamanin Schurr shares the exact same predicted odds of “2.3” as Ludique. However, there’s a clear difference in the “quality” of their data. Ludique’s data receives “S-rank” evaluations from both the stable (“excellent shape”) and trackmen (“great shape”). In contrast, Yamanin Schurr’s training analysis is “drive was a bit lacking… not bad.” “Not Bad” is hardly comparable to “Great Shape” or “Excellent Shape.” Similarly, after his last race, Ludique was confidently described as “will win soon” despite finishing 2nd, while Yamanin Schurr was noted to have “various issues” even after a 1st place finish, with comments focusing on his future potential. This comparison suggests that Yamanin Schurr’s popularity is heavily influenced by trust in jockey Kawada and the momentum of a 3-year-old (coming off a win), while the data on pure “readiness” and “completeness” gives Ludique the edge. This “evaluation gap” is the key to unlocking this two-horse showdown.
| Comparison Point | (1) Ludique | (6) Yamanin Schurr |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted Odds | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Stable Comment | ◎ “Excellent shape” | ◯ “Looking forward to it” |
| Training Analysis | ◎ “Impressive leg power. Great shape” | △ “Drive lacking, but… not bad” |
| Previous Jockey Comment | ◎ “Will win soon” (2nd) | ◯ “Various issues” (1st) |
| X-Factor | First time with blinkers | First race in this class |
While it looks like a two-horse race, it’s not as simple as the odds suggest. A close look at the data reveals betting justifications for the other 10 horses.
This 5-year-old colt is the third favorite with predicted odds of 7.2. The biggest reason to bet on him is the “reason for his last loss.” Jockey Moreira, who rode him in his last race (Boso S, 2nd), commented, “He broke well and ran in a good rhythm. However, I had to wait to make my move in the stretch. By then, the winner had already pulled away.” The “Next Race Memo” also notes, “He extended his stride tenaciously to finish 2nd by 0.1 seconds. Considering the 2kg weight difference with the winner, it was a strong performance.” This strongly suggests he could have won with a better trip and without the weight disadvantage. The stable also praises his consistency (“He’s been running well in all his recent races”), and the training data (“He’s not a flashy worker,” “He’s a racehorse”) speaks to his gritty, hard-knocking nature. If Ludique and Yamanin Schurr get too focused on each other, he is the most likely to capitalize and is a dangerous third contender.
The evaluation for this horse is simple. As trainer Morita comments, “He’s a one-dimensional closer, so we need the front-runners to tire.” However, his ability to “always finish strong” is genuine. In his last race (Boso S, 3rd), he “rallied furiously in the stretch with the fastest closing time of the field to finish a strong 3rd.” If the pace becomes blistering, perhaps with Ludique running too freely with the blinkers, a scenario where this horse’s late kick explodes is entirely possible.
Despite long odds of 23.4, the data suggests he has been specifically targeted for this race with a “deliberate schedule.”
Jockey Taguchi rode him in his workout on Nov 5 (Wed), and he received a passing grade of “fairly well-prepared.” He should not be underestimated.
Like Ludique, he has the “B” mark, indicating he’s wearing blinkers for the first time. Trainer Sugiyama clearly states his intention: “In this class, we need a little something extra. We’re trying blinkers this time. Hopefully, it will improve his finishing kick.” The reason for his last loss (Oyamazaki S, 5th) is clear (“The track was too fast”), and if the blinkers provide that “extra push,” improvement can be expected.
A 3-year-old filly. After her last race in August (Hidaka S, 13th), she has been rested and seems to have recovered splendidly. The training short comment is “Improved after recovery,” and the analysis is also positive: “This week she responded sharply and finished ahead. Her movement quality has improved after the break.” The key point is the assistant trainer Araki’s comment: “We’re trying her on dirt for the first time in a while, so we’ll see how she adapts.” The “surface change” from turf to dirt is the main angle. She might blossom on dirt in this fresh start.
Let’s summarize the “prediction points” from this article.
In this article, we have thoroughly analyzed the “prediction points” for the Kibune Stakes 2025 runners based on training data, stable comments, and past race interviews. Amidst a strong two-horse rivalry, our final conclusion and top pick (◎), after carefully considering each horse’s condition and course suitability, are available at the link below.