This report provides a thorough analysis of Kawasaki Horse Racing on November 21, 2025, focusing on identifying “value horses” by comparing estimated win probabilities with market odds and analyzing training data. The analysis considers Kawasaki Racecourse’s specific characteristics (tight turns, distance) and pedigree suitability for dirt racing.
- Key Analysis Guidelines
- Race-by-Race Analysis
- Race 2: Pisanzapra (2-Year-Old Newcomer Race)
- Race 3: Tenku no Kagayaki (2-Year-Old Newcomer Race)
- Race 4: B.B. Ellis (Tonosama Batta Sho)
- Race 5: Seiun Yatagarasu (3-Year-Old Thoroughbred)
- Race 6: Lalaredesanimaux (Raimon Sho)
- Race 7: Tosen Adelaide (3-Year-Old & Up Thoroughbred)
- Race 8: Bonheur (Kongo Sho)
- Race 9: Fifties (OMOTAN Hadano Sho)
- Race 12: Gifted Leader (Jockeys Cup)
- Overall Conclusion and Recommended Portfolio
- Risks to Note
Key Analysis Guidelines
- Focus on Discrepancies: The primary goal is to find horses where market valuation (odds) does not align with their actual ability (win probability).
- Key Factors: Training partner comparisons, past class performance, and pedigree suitability for dirt are crucial indicators.
- Kawasaki Racecourse: The analysis accounts for the course’s tight turns and the demands of its dirt track.
- Nankanto Racing: Specific characteristics of this racing circuit are considered.
- Data Integration: Both quantitative data (estimated win probability, odds) and qualitative data (training times, stable comments, pedigree) are holistically evaluated.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 2: Pisanzapra (2-Year-Old Newcomer Race)
Featured Horse: Pisanzapra (No. 1)
Recommendation Basis: Estimated win probability 30%, estimated odds 2.7. Structural advantage in finishing ahead of a higher-class horse in training and suitable pedigree for dirt.
Training Data: On November 17, Pisanzapra clocked 5F 67.0 – 3F 39.1 (hard driven) and finished 0.3 seconds ahead of Dream Japan (B3 class) from the outside. This demonstrates extraordinary engine performance.
Trainer Comment: Trainer Takatsuki expressed confidence in her immediate performance.
Rival Analysis:
- Hamano Hikari (No. 2): Pisanzapra has an edge due to the strength of its training partner.
- Unforgiven (No. 3): Still in development stage based on training.
- Bolero Rise (No. 4): Good readiness, dark horse potential.
Conclusion: Pisanzapra’s ability to dominate a B3 horse in training places it above other contenders.
Race 3: Tenku no Kagayaki (2-Year-Old Newcomer Race)
Featured Horse: Tenku no Kagayaki (No. 5)
Recommendation Basis: Estimated win probability 38%, estimated odds 2.0. Structural advantage in smooth cornering despite being a large horse and abundant exercise volume.
Training Data: Recorded an excellent time on November 16.
Trainer Comment: Trainer Kato noted her smooth handling of Kawasaki’s tight corners, resolving a key risk factor. “Thoroughly worked” indicates readiness.
Rival Analysis:
- Fulmine Bianco (No. 2): Biggest threat, finished ahead of a C2 horse in training.
- Roku no Rainbow (No. 7): Speed type, key to race pace.
- Chrom Blaze (No. 3): Small filly, performance on power-demanding dirt is a concern.
Conclusion: Tenku no Kagayaki is rated favorite due to agility and preparation, with Fulmine Bianco being a probable strong competitor.
Race 4: B.B. Ellis (Tonosama Batta Sho)
Featured Horse: B.B. Ellis (No. 3)
Recommendation Basis: Estimated win probability 40%, estimated odds 1.9. Structural advantage in track record at Monbetsu and adaptability to left-handed courses.
Training Data: Demonstrated sharp times on Monbetsu’s hill course and maintains good form after transferring to Kawasaki.
Trainer Comment: Trainer Hiroshi Yamazaki confirmed suitability for left-handed courses.
Pedigree: Sire Gold Ship provides stamina and power for 2-year-old races.
Risk Factors & Rivals:
- Super Icy (No. 1): Clocked a phenomenal training time, potentially superior in pure speed. Could be a “blind spot” for bettors.
Conclusion: B.B. Ellis is trusted for consistency, but Super Icy’s explosive power requires caution. Careful fund allocation is advised.
Race 5: Seiun Yatagarasu (3-Year-Old Thoroughbred)
Featured Horse: Seiun Yatagarasu (No. 7)
Recommendation Basis: Estimated win probability 19%, estimated odds 3.4. Structural advantage in “lightness” in training and clear tactical adjustment. Identified as a “value horse.”
Training Data: Showed significant improvement with a good time achieved with ease in the final workout.
Trainer Comment: Trainer Tanabe indicated the previous defeat was due to race development, not ability, and expects a performance change with a clear plan for settling in the middle.
Rival Analysis:
- Snowy Sky (No. 5): Strong favorite, but likely over-bet, offering less value.
- Afrogal (No. 8): Well-bred with potential but unrefined aspects.
Conclusion: Seiun Yatagarasu is recommended as a “value horse” for an upset, leveraging its tactical shift and improved condition against the popular Snowy Sky.
Race 6: Lalaredesanimaux (Raimon Sho)
Featured Horse: Lalaredesanimaux (No. 4)
Recommendation Basis: Estimated win probability 47%, estimated odds 1.9. Structural advantage in outstanding course suitability (900m) and improved condition due to cooler temperatures. Identified as the “Absolute Anchor.”
Training Data: Maintaining good form with easy training, indicating excellent readiness.
Trainer Comment: Trainer Shinobu Sakai noted liveliness with cooler weather, fast start, and suitability for 900 meters. American-bred speed is a key asset.
Rival Analysis:
- Koto no Sansho (No. 1): Innermost gate risk if start is poor.
- Ronette (No. 2): Speed potential but suitability is unknown.
Conclusion: Lalaredesanimaux’s winning probability is analyzed as extremely high, making it a reliable anchor horse.
Race 7: Tosen Adelaide (3-Year-Old & Up Thoroughbred)
Featured Horse: Tosen Adelaide (No. 9)
Recommendation Basis: Estimated win probability 16%, estimated odds 3.9. Structural advantage in refreshment from outside stable training and the stable’s confident stance.
Training Data: Thoroughly worked at an outside stable’s farm hill course.
Trainer Comment: Trainer Kokubo explicitly stated increased improvement from the previous race.
Rival Analysis:
- Blue Pearl (No. 1): Good race expected if leveraging the inside gate.
- Gum Peeling (No. 8): Consistent, but Tosen Adelaide may have an edge in explosive power.
Conclusion: Tosen Adelaide, with the “invisible added value” of outside stable training, is an attractive investment target with good odds.
Race 8: Bonheur (Kongo Sho)
Featured Horse: Bonheur (No. 1)
Recommendation Basis: Estimated win probability 12%, estimated odds 3.8. Structural advantage in a clear tactical move in distance reduction (to 900m) and preparation for it. Identified as a “Target Long Shot.”
Training Data: Improved training evaluation.
Trainer Comment: Trainer Hiroshi Yamazaki confirmed the planned distance reduction to 900m, believing it suits Bonheur based on a previous performance.
Rival Analysis:
- Best Tsukki (No. 8): Consecutive win expected, but odds will be low.
- Zagori (No. 11): Good training time, chance for upset with a good start.
Conclusion: Bonheur is recommended as a long shot aiming for a transformation with the distance reduction, offering “value” in win/place or wide bets against the favorite Best Tsukki.
Race 9: Fifties (OMOTAN Hadano Sho)
Featured Horse: Fifties (No. 9)
Recommendation Basis: Estimated win probability 17%, estimated odds 3.8. Structural advantage in having its own “style” (front-running) and smooth movement in training.
Training Data: Showed smooth movement, indicating good condition.
Trainer Comment: Trainer Inamasu believes front-running in longer distances suits Fifties and hopes she can maintain this style.
Rival Analysis:
- Oken Duke (No. 5): Wearing a shadow roll, interesting with distance extension.
- Haseno Crown (No. 7): Prefers longer distances, will be strong in a stamina battle.
Conclusion: Fifties’ tenacity when allowed to run at her own pace offers a risk-reward commensurate with her odds, though dependent on race development.
Race 12: Gifted Leader (Jockeys Cup)
Featured Horse: Gifted Leader (No. 9)
Recommendation Basis: Estimated win probability 22%, estimated odds 3.1. Structural advantage in class familiarity and resolution of issues (settling, hoof condition).
Training Data: Enhanced training.
Trainer Comment: Trainer Ki Yagi stated that settling issues and hoof concerns from the previous race have been resolved.
Rival Analysis:
- Gold Flavor (No. 1): Sharp turn of foot but easily influenced by race development.
- Benino Pearl (No. 2): Pessimistic stable comments lead to downgrade.
- Obiwan Ryusei (No. 13): Stable but lacks decisive winning power.
Conclusion: With anxieties resolved and in a condition to display true ability, Gifted Leader is the most reliable choice for the final race.
Overall Conclusion and Recommended Portfolio
The three most highly recommended “investment targets” are:
The Absolute Anchor
Lalaredesanimaux (Race 6)
Reason: Overwhelming suitability for the 900m race, positive training and stable comments, and a reliable 47% win probability.
Best Value
Chikyu (Race 1)
Reason: Astounding training performance (on par with a C1 horse) as a debutant, which is unlikely to be fully reflected in the odds, offering significant value.
The Target Long Shot
Seiun Yatagarasu (Race 5)
Reason: Clear cause for previous defeat, improved lightness in training, and a tactical shift suggest performance beyond its 19% win probability.
Risks to Note
Risk: B.B. Ellis (Race 4): While recommended, rival Super Icy’s training performance suggests a potentially greater threat than numerical data indicates. Careful fund allocation and observation of odds are advised.
This report is based on provided data snippets and statistical information. Horse racing involves unpredictable factors.
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