A final analysis of …
The 2025 Kahoku Shinpo Hai is a must-watch race, pitting the overwhelming 1.5 odds favorite, Capelle Brucke, against the experts’ choice, Miraihenokagi. With a high pace expected on the Fukushima Dirt 1700m course, we compare data from netkeiba and Keiba Book to analyze all contenders. From dangerous favorites to dark horses who could turn the tables, we break down the core of the race prediction.
First and foremost, the most critical factor governing this race is the “pace.” Held on the tricky, tight-turned Fukushima Dirt 1700m course, netkeiba.com’s data analysis predicts an “H” (High Pace). This isn’t mere speculation; an analysis of the 15 contenders’ running styles makes the reason clear.
With two horses that “want the lead” and both stables publicly declaring their intent to run at the front, a fierce battle for dominance right from the start is almost certain. This “guaranteed high pace” is the absolute filter through which every horse must be evaluated. Who will benefit from this war of attrition, and who will be consumed by it? That is the central question.
The most striking feature of this year’s Kahoku Shinpo Hai is the divergence between netkeiba.com’s odds data (the market) and Keiba Book’s expert selections (the insiders), who are backing different horses.
The market places its absolute trust in #8 Capelle Brucke, who has garnered support pushing the win odds to 1.5. The reason is a near-perfect evaluation in netkeiba.com’s data analysis.
Jockey Hayato Samejima, who rode him last time, also praised the performance, noting he “maneuvered well from the inside” and “showed his grit.” There appear to be no weaknesses. For data-driven and odds-focused bettors, this horse is a solid anchor.
Meanwhile, the experts at Keiba Book are recommending a completely different horse as the “shadow protagonist”: #12 Miraihenokagi.
However, this horse comes with a major “contradiction.” In both data sources, trainer Yu Uehara has stated, “The right-hand turn will be key, but I want him to overcome it,” suggesting this race is a test. This sounds less like “we’re here to win” and more like “we’re here to learn.” Nevertheless, the fact that experts have named him their top pick is proof they believe his raw “ability” can transcend any concerns about course suitability.
With the “high pace” and “two-horse conflict” in mind, we’ll now analyze the entire field using two data sources.
#1 OK Birdie: 2nd favorite (11.8 odds). Well-prepared despite a layoff. Trainer Aizawa is confident, stating, “He’s good enough to compete even after moving up in class.” A top contender likely to join the pace battle.
#2 Eifer Globe: 7th favorite (20.2 odds). Recent form is poor, but has a history of good runs at Fukushima. Training looks good, making him a potential dark horse with improved condition.
#3 Tupi: 13th favorite (60.8 odds). Low training marks, and the stable’s comments are weak: “Stamina is a concern,” and “We can’t push him hard right now.” Difficult to recommend.
#4 Grace of God: 10th favorite (27.0 odds). The stable’s comment “depends on the pace” suggests they’re relying on luck. A top finish on his own seems unlikely; he’ll need the race to unfold perfectly for him.
#5 Grand King O: 5th favorite (16.2 odds). A classic front-runner and a key pacemaker. An uncontested lead would be ideal, but his fate depends on the duel with #10.
#6 Arena Palacio: 12th favorite (48.6 odds). The stable is bullish, but his training is rated “D.” The horse’s condition doesn’t seem to match the words, so he should be downgraded.
#7 Win Ardore: 11th favorite (28.6 odds). Ranks high in “Improvement” data. The reason for his last loss is clear, and if you reconsider his 2nd place finish two races ago, a turnaround is possible.
#8 Capelle Brucke: (See analysis in “The Market’s Undisputed Favorite“)
#9 Empress Flame: 6th favorite (18.7 odds). A 3-year-old filly with an attractive 54.0kg weight. If she banks on her late kick in an anticipated high-pace race, she’s a strong contender who could benefit from the setup.
#10 Sandblast: 9th favorite (25.6 odds). The other key pacemaker. The stable emphasizes improvement from his last race, saying, “He’s in shape to perform.” His moves will dictate the entire flow of the race.
#11 Takasan Face: 8th favorite (22.1 odds). Course suitability and jockey are appealing, but the stable’s comment “there are some difficulties in his preparation” raises questions about his condition.
#12 Miraihenokagi: (See analysis in “The Experts’ “Shadow” Favorite“)
#13 Puff: 3rd favorite (12.4 odds). Strong on paper, but the stable has expressed concern, saying he “still seems a bit soft,” making him a potential “dangerous favorite.”
#14 Ca Va Bien: 14th favorite (60.8 odds). First race after a stable transfer, but with low training marks, a major turnaround is unlikely.
#15 Atractivo: 15th favorite (81.0 odds). No compelling factors in the data to support him.
Let’s consolidate the analysis so far into three key prediction points.
Out of 15 runners, a remarkable four (#1, #3, #5, #6) are sired by Sinister Minister. If the forward-running #1, #5, and #6 battle each other, the race will become a grueling test of stamina, setting up a perfect scenario for closers like #9 Empress Flame and #12 Miraihenokagi.
Jockey evaluations are also split. According to netkeiba.com’s data, the “course specialists” for Fukushima Dirt 1700m are #5 Nagashima, #8 Saito, and #11 Maruyama. On the other hand, the jockeys on the horses favored by Keiba Book experts are #12 Tannai and #1 Yokoyama. The question is whether to trust the statistical course record or the experts’ confidence in the rider.
The biggest red flag is #13 Puff. Data-wise, he’s a strong contender, ranking high in “Ability” and “Improvement.” However, Keiba Book’s short comment is “Awaits return to form,” and both stables agree he “still seems a bit soft.” The data (past performance) says “bet,” but the stable’s honest assessment (current condition) suggests “wait.” How you handle this horse could be the difference between winning and losing your bet.
| # | Horse | netkeiba.com (Market/Data) | Keiba Book (Experts/On-Site) | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Capelle Brucke | 1.5 odds (1st Fav), Top 3 in 4 data categories | Stable: “Expect a promising race” | Data & Stable Align (Favorite) |
| 12 | Miraihenokagi | “Ability” Top 3 | 4 experts pick “◎” BUT Stable: “Right turn is key” | Experts vs. Stable (Shadow Favorite) |
| 13 | Puff | 3rd Fav, “Ability” & “Improvement” Top 3 | Comment: “Awaits return to form” Stable: “Still a bit soft” | Data vs. On-Site (Dangerous Favorite) |
| 6 | Arena Palacio | Stable: “This was the target” | Training: “D” Comment: “Improving with this workout” | Stable vs. Condition (Questionable) |
Here’s a summary of the key points for predicting the 2025 Kahoku Shinpo Hai. The race will be defined by the “high pace” set by #5 Grand King O and #10 Sandblast. The central conflict is between the “market favorite,” #8 Capelle Brucke, who has perfect data, and the “shadow favorite,” #12 Miraihenokagi, whose talent experts are backing despite the stable’s reservations.
Despite being strong on paper, #13 Puff should be treated as a “dangerous favorite” due to the stable’s lukewarm tone. The horse who may benefit most from the high pace could be the 3-year-old filly with a weight advantage and a confident stable, #9 Empress Flame.
Who will conquer the Fukushima Dirt 1700m? The data-backed favorite, the expert-endorsed talent, or a dark horse capitalizing on the fast pace? For the final conclusion and recommended bets based on this analysis, please check the professional predictions.
Get the final verdict from the pros and see their recommended bets!