JBC Classic 2025 Predictions: Teio Sho Winner Mickey Fight or Defending Champion Willson Tesoro? A Complete Analysis of All 14 Runners & Expert Ratings

The pinnacle of autumn dirt racing, the JBC Classic (Jpn1), will be held at Funabashi Racecourse in 2025. The main focus is the showdown between the current strongest horse, Mickey Fight, and the defending champion, Willson Tesoro. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of course characteristics, past data, the training and condition of all 14 runners, and expert evaluations to offer a multi-faceted prediction for this championship dirt race.

Article Highlights

• The 2025 JBC Classic at Funabashi Racecourse centers on the rivalry between Teio Sho winner Mickey Fight and last year’s champion Willson Tesoro.
• Funabashi’s unique “Spiral Curve” allows horses in outer gates to maintain speed, meaning an inside draw is not always an advantage.
• Historical data shows that winners of the previous “Teio Sho” perform exceptionally well, giving Mickey Fight a strong statistical tailwind.
• Key challengers include King’s Sword, who is rapidly improving in his second race back, and Sunrise Zipang, returning to his preferred distance.
• Dark horses to watch include local Funabashi course specialist Saint Honore and mile champion Shamal, for whom distance is the key question.

Predicting the Race: Funabashi 1800m Course Characteristics & Key Data

To predict the JBC Classic, understanding the characteristics of the Funabashi 1800m dirt course is essential. At first glance, it appears to be a typical tight-turning local track, but it hides unique elements that significantly impact the race’s outcome.

The Key to Victory: Mastering Funabashi’s “Spiral Curve”

Funabashi Racecourse’s most defining feature is its “Spiral Curve,” a banked turn with varying elevations. On typical tight courses, horses on the outside lose significant ground due to centrifugal force. However, the Spiral Curve is designed with a higher bank on the outside, allowing horses to maintain speed through the turns. This structure adds a layer of complexity to race strategy.

The conventional wisdom that an inside draw is advantageous on a tight course doesn’t always apply here. A powerful horse can accelerate smoothly from an outside gate and improve its position in the corners. In fact, the course is known to be relatively favorable for closers, making it more than just a front-runner’s track. Although the favorite, ⑬ Mickey Fight, drew the wide gate 13, this course characteristic means there’s no need for excessive pessimism.

Key Prep Races Based on Past Trends

Analyzing past race data reveals crucial prep races for the JBC Classic.

• The Dominance of the Teio Sho Group: Historically, horses that won their previous start in the Teio Sho have won the JBC Classic four times, with an impressive in-the-money rate of 57.1%. The Teio Sho is a 2000m race where the top horses of their generation compete, and the stamina and class demonstrated there translate directly to the JBC Classic. This fact is a powerful tailwind for ⑬ Mickey Fight, who won this year’s Teio Sho in spectacular fashion.
• Reliability of Favorites: The first favorite has won four times in the past, indicating high reliability. Interestingly, the second favorite has an in-the-money rate below 70%, suggesting a gap in reliability among the top-rated horses. While the absolute star can be trusted, the second choice may have vulnerabilities, which is a crucial point when constructing a betting strategy.

The Main Contenders: In-Depth Analysis of the Top 4

This year’s JBC Classic is expected to revolve around four standout horses in terms of both record and ability. Let’s delve into each horse’s condition and expert evaluations.

⑬ Mickey Fight – The Reigning King on a Royal Road

Core: The undisputed favorite, aiming for complete domination of the dirt division after an overwhelming victory in the Teio Sho.

Expert Evaluation: Many experts have given him the highest praise, calling him the “top pick” and an “unavoidable presence.” His performance in the Teio Sho was particularly lauded, with comments like, “He pushed through a fast pace with early pressure. That’s a win only a truly powerful horse could achieve,” highlighting his exceptional ability and mental fortitude. Data analysis also gives him a perfect score with zero deductions in multiple categories, objectively confirming his superiority.

Training & Condition: In his final workout, he participated in a three-horse drill on the Miho woodchip course. He finished first with ease, showing excellent movement. His time was also impressive at 80.1 seconds for 6 furlongs and 11.6 seconds for the final furlong. The camp reported he is “moving with more spring in his step,” indicating an upward trend. His training is rated a solid “B,” confirming he is ready to perform.

Camp Comments: Assistant trainer Yamazaki from the Hiroyasu Tanaka stable commented, “His condition for the Teio Sho was excellent, so he might be a step below that, but he’s not in a state to be embarrassed.” While not at his absolute peak, this shows confidence that he is ready to contend for the win.

Summary: Having won a historically significant prep race, receiving rave reviews from experts, and completing a perfect final workout, Mickey Fight’s position as the central figure is unshakable. The only concern is the layoff, but the abundance of positive factors more than compensates for it.

⑨ Willson Tesoro – The Evolved Defending Champion

Core: Aims to become the sixth horse in history to win back-to-back JBC Classics, armed with a new dimension shown in his last race.

Expert Evaluation: Not just last year’s winner, his victory in the Nambu Hai impressed experts. “A perfect closing victory,” and “The patient race paid off handsomely,” were common praises, highlighting his ability to win from off the pace, not just by leading. Learning this new tactic with jockey Yuga Kawada is a major asset. His loss in the Teio Sho is largely dismissed as being caused by early pressure.

Training & Condition: His final workout was a solo run on the Miho woodchip course. He showed light footwork and was praised for his “powerful stride.” Despite the short two-week interval since the Nambu Hai, his training volume is sufficient, and he is judged to have maintained his good form.

Camp Comments: The Noboru Takagi stable commented, “His condition is improving, but as his spirit has sharpened, his tension has also risen. That’s a point of concern.” This suggests his good condition and mental fragility are two sides of the same coin, making his paddock demeanor on race day a key factor.

Summary: He has evolved into a more formidable opponent, not just aiming for a repeat but also adding versatility to his racing style. While he may concede to Mickey Fight in raw power and scale, he could very well turn the tables with a skillful ride. Some question his suitability for Funabashi’s tight course, but his high ability will likely overcome that.

⑪ Sunrise Zipang – Awaits Explosive Finish with Welcome Distance Increase

Core: Having proven his mettle in mile races, he returns to his preferred 1800m, holding the potential to swallow the leaders with his devastating late kick.

Expert Evaluation: His 4th place finish in the Nambu Hai (1600m) has paradoxically raised his stock. Experts praised the ride, saying, “It was a good decision not to force the fast pace,” and “The tight-turning mile seemed unsuitable, but finishing 4th is a testament to his ability.” With three graded stakes wins at middle distances, the extension to 1800m is seen as a definite plus. However, some are concerned that his large stride may not be suited to Funabashi’s tight corners.

Training & Condition: His final workout was a solo run on the Ritto training track’s uphill course. He showed a sharp finish with a final furlong time of 12.4 seconds, earning high praise for his “dynamic movement.” The improvement from his last race is clear, and the Koichi Shintani stable seems pleased, stating, “He has improved after one race.”

Camp Comments: Trainer Shintani sees the last race as a positive step, saying, “I think the experience of a fast pace will serve him well this time,” and welcomes the return to his preferred distance. The camp’s confidence is palpable.

Summary: The race conditions this time are incomparably better for him than his last start. It’s proven that his closing kick is G1-class if the race unfolds in his favor. The biggest question is whether the final piece of the puzzle—course suitability—will fall into place.

⑫ King’s Sword – Poised for a Comeback Strike?

Core: This is his second race back from a long layoff due to tendonitis. His condition is rapidly improving, and the question is whether the form that defeated Willson Tesoro in the Teio Sho will shine again.

Expert Evaluation: His return in the Nippon TV Hai (4th place) was a solid effort, just 0.1 seconds behind the winner. Experts are focused on his subsequent improvement. “His movement in training has changed dramatically since that race; his original fluid form is finally back,” is a common observation, pointing to a significant step forward. The camp sees him as “fully ready to compete,” and he is rated as having a very high chance of a complete turnaround.

Training & Condition: The training report’s comment “Improved from the last run” perfectly describes his state. His final workout was a tough paired drill on the Ritto woodchip course. Although he finished slightly behind, the camp was unconcerned, stating “no worries about being behind,” viewing it as a substantial, high-load workout. His training is rated “B,” and his improved movement is evident.

Camp Comments: The Ryo Terashima stable commented, “There seem to be no ill effects [from the last race], and he’s been doing well since.” They emphasize that his training has progressed smoothly without any leg issues.

Summary: There is no doubt that this horse possesses G1-level potential. If he is in top condition, he has the underlying strength to compete on equal terms with the top two. He may have the most upside from his last race and could be the one to hold the key to the race’s outcome.

Full Field Breakdown: A Look at Every Horse’s Ability and Rating

Beyond the four main contenders, a group of dark horses is waiting for their chance. Here, we analyze every runner based on training, camp comments, and expert insights.

1. Grande Mare
His training has been light, and the camp’s comments are pessimistic: “The competition is strong…” Experts have also dismissed him, suggesting a tough race ahead.

2. Meisho Hario
His four Jpn1 wins are the most in the field. However, he was scratched from the Teio Sho due to an issue, and the camp is cautious, saying, “His improvement is a bit slow after the layoff.” His ability is undeniable, but data shows he doesn’t perform well after layoffs of three months or more, so his condition on race day is critical.

3. Light Warrior
A typical front-runner, his success depends entirely on getting his preferred pace. Trainer Uchida is hopeful, “He has a chance depending on the flow,” but with other strong front-runners in the race, an easy lead is unlikely.

4. Aladdin Barows
A talented horse who consistently contends in dirt grade races at 1400m and below, including a 3rd in last year’s JBC Sprint. Trainer Shinko touts his condition: “He’s in great shape, and his workout was sharp.” The challenge is the 1800m distance; all eyes are on whether his closing speed will hold up.

5. Saint Honore
This 4-year-old carries the hopes of the local Funabashi contingent. He has dominated his last two starts at this same course and distance, winning by 5 and 8 lengths. His finishing times are competitive with the JRA horses, and trainer Arayama believes an upset is possible, stating, “The key is whether Saint Honore can dictate the pace.”

6. Ho O Truth
*Scratched*

7. Shamal
The 7-year-old mile champion has hit his peak, winning the Kashiwa Kinen and Sakitama Hai back-to-back. He has an excellent affinity for the Funabashi course, but the biggest question is the unknown 1800m distance. Trainer Matsushita is optimistic, “I think he can handle it, and he’s the type to improve with racing,” but also sees him as a horse that gets better with each run, suggesting this might be a step towards his next target.

8. Mick Fire
Despite a brilliant record of seven consecutive wins from his debut, including the South Kanto Triple Crown, he has been winless for over two years. However, trainer Kazuo Watanabe declared, “This might be his best condition since turning older,” hinting at a sudden resurgence. He has been moving powerfully in training, so a comeback is not out of the question.

10. Giga King
A veteran who knows Funabashi inside and out, but his recent form suggests a slight decline. Trainer Inamasu emphasizes his challenger status, “We’re here to learn from the best,” making a top finish seem unlikely.

14. Win Rublevka
This horse has spent most of his career on turf and has not shown results since switching to dirt. Experts have given him a harsh evaluation, “not a contender at all,” making him an easy pass.

Experts’ Final Verdicts: Consensus and Differing Opinions

Aggregating the opinions of experts from various media outlets brings the race’s structure into sharper focus.

Unanimous Top Pick: ⑬ Mickey Fight

Multiple horse racing media outlets and writers have named ⑬ Mickey Fight as their top pick. The reasoning is his overwhelming performance in the Teio Sho and his smooth preparation since. Data analysis also shows no negative factors, making him objectively a horse with few weaknesses.

The Leading Challengers

The main challengers—⑨ Willson Tesoro, ⑪ Sunrise Zipang, and ⑫ King’s Sword—are rated almost equally. ⑨ Willson Tesoro is highly regarded for his chances of a repeat victory and his improved race sense. ⑪ Sunrise Zipang is supported due to the clear advantage of the increased distance. ⑫ King’s Sword is drawing attention for the expected dramatic improvement in his second race back.

What’s interesting is how the ratings for the other contenders diverge based on what each expert prioritizes. Those who value absolute ability and record see ⑬ Mickey Fight as an immovable anchor. In contrast, experts who rate recent growth and tactical evolution are hopeful for an upset by ⑨ Willson Tesoro. Those focusing on changing race conditions and physical improvement see value in ⑪ Sunrise Zipang and ⑫ King’s Sword. These points of divergence are the biggest clues for building a betting ticket.

Conclusion: Who Will Conquer the Summit? Final Thoughts and Betting Strategy

The JBC Classic will decide the pinnacle of the dirt racing world. The narrative of a clash between two titans—⑬ Mickey Fight, who claimed the throne in the Teio Sho, and ⑨ Willson Tesoro, who seeks a repeat victory after reaching a new level—is firm. However, the excitement of this race lies in the presence of talented horses who could break up this duel. ⑫ King’s Sword, reaching peak condition in his second race back, and ⑪ Sunrise Zipang, returning to his favorite stage, both possess the destructive closing power to threaten the top two. Furthermore, if local expert ⑤ Saint Honore manages to set his own pace, he could very well become the agent of chaos.

The keys to the race are the tricky Funabashi 1800m course and predicting whether the early pace will be contested. In this article, we have thoroughly analyzed the outlook for the JBC Classic based on public information from various media and experts. For our final conclusion and specific betting recommendations, please follow the link below.

Next Steps

See Specific Bets and Final Conclusions Here