Inotsume-mōshin Shō Race Prediction

Kawasaki Racecourse (B2B3, 900m) — November 19, 2025

A detailed analysis of the unique Kawasaki 900m course, evaluating the bloodlines, training, and past performance of the 12 participating horses to provide a comprehensive betting guide.

Key Takeaways

Favorite (◎): Lavomi

Fastest time, confident stable, and excellent jockey rapport make this 3-year-old filly the top pick.

Second Favorite (○): Buffalo Rise

Outstanding training performance post-layoff suggests a full recovery and peak condition.

Dark Horse (▲): Pink Towel Chan

Proven performer with a close finish against the favorite and a versatile racing style.

Kawasaki 900m Course Bias

Favors inner gates and front-runners, but absolute speed is the ultimate deciding factor.

Table of Contents

• Introduction & Race Characteristics
• Detailed Analysis of All Participating Horses
• Data Analysis and Race Simulation
• Overall Evaluation and Prediction Conclusion

1. Introduction: Race Characteristics and Environmental Analysis

The “Inotsume-mōshin Shō,” a B2B3 selected horse race over 900m, will be held as the 10th race at Kawasaki Racecourse on November 19, 2025. This race demands extreme speed from start to finish and is part of the “Special Kawasaki Sprint Series.” The analysis will cover bloodlines, training, performance, and strategy for the 12 runners, with a particular focus on the impact of the unique Kawasaki 900m course.

Structural Peculiarities of the Kawasaki 900m Course

• Centrifugal Force and Gate Bias: The sharp curve makes it difficult for horses in outer gates to maintain speed, leading to a statistically significant advantage for horses from inner gates that can lead or race forward. Winning from an outer gate requires exceptional early speed.
• Sustained Anaerobic Exercise: There is no recovery section, demanding sustained top speed from start to finish, pushing cardiovascular and muscular endurance to their limits.
• Absolute Importance of the Start: A slow start is fatal. Gate departure and initial acceleration are more critical than in any other distance.

Class Structure of the B2B3 Mixed Race

This race is a mix of B2 and B3 class horses, including those recently promoted, demoted, and regulars within the same class. The comparison between the growth potential of 3-year-old horses and the experience of older horses is a key focus. The impact of weight allowances and developmental stages on potentially overturning the performance of higher-rated older horses is noteworthy.

2. Detailed Analysis of All Participating Horses

1

Momomoo Black

Mare, 7yo, Stable: Murata Jun

2

Rule Maple

Mare, 5yo, Stable: Yamasaki Hiroshi

3

Take Note

Colt, 4yo, Stable: Sasaki Jin

4

Lavomi

Filly, 3yo, Stable: Hayashi Takayuki

5

Buffalo Rise

Colt, 4yo, Stable: Hirata

6

Eternal Saber

Mare, 4yo, Stable: Yagi Jin

7

Crystallize

Colt, 4yo, Stable: Takatsuki Ken

8

Dee’s Mate

Mare, 5yo, Stable: Takatsuki Ken

9

Tony Prince

Colt, 5yo, Stable: Tanabe

10

Pink Towel Chan

Mare, 3yo, Stable: Yamada Tadashi

11

Akaza

Mare, 6yo, Stable: Yamada Tadashi

12

Shigeru Mach

Colt, 5yo, Stable: Suzuki Yoshiki

3. Data Analysis and Race Simulation

Time Comparison: Ranking of Absolute Ability

Comparing recent recorded times on the Kawasaki 900m course, Lavomi and Tony Prince are significantly faster. A time below 54 seconds is likely necessary to contend for victory.

Training Time Analysis: Current Burst Power

S RatingBuffalo Rise (3F 36.2s) – Exceptional time, highlighting excellent condition.

A RatingShigeru Mach (3F 37.4s) – Good time while racing wide, indicating strong form.

A RatingTony Prince (3F 37.7s) – Good time, but potential weight gain warrants caution.

B RatingLavomi (3F 40.1s) – Relaxed with plenty of room, indicating high and stable condition.

Race Simulation: Who Will Take the Lead?

A fierce battle for the lead is expected. Momomoo Black from the inner gate will likely push for the front, challenged by Akaza and Buffalo Rise from wider gates. The favorite, Lavomi, is expected to settle in a forward position (3rd-4th), aiming to replicate her winning pattern. She is likely to advance around the final turn as the pace-testing front-runners tire, and then break through in the stretch. Shigeru Mach and Eternal Saber will be closing from behind, but their success will depend on how well the front horses hold their ground.

4. Overall Evaluation and Prediction Conclusion

Based on the comprehensive analysis, the key factors for winning are “current form” and “absolute speed.” In this regard, the momentum and development of the 3-year-old filly Lavomi are judged to surpass those of the older horses.

◎ Favorite: Lavomi

Her “54.1 seconds” time is the fastest, the stable is confident, and her jockey partnership is excellent. With the growth potential of a 3-year-old and a weight advantage, she has very few weaknesses.

○ Rival: Buffalo Rise

A training time of 36.2s for the last 3 furlongs indicates complete recovery. Her sprint-suited bloodline makes her the primary threat to the favorite.

▲ Dark Horse: Pink Towel Chan

Finished just 0.3 seconds behind Lavomi previously and demonstrated stamina. Her versatility could be a game-changer if the race develops favorably.

Other Picks (△・注)

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