The Strategy and Suitability of Four Horses Aiming for a Historic Victory
A thorough analysis of the profiles, recent performances, and suitability for the Tokyo 2400m turf of the four European horses invited to the 2025 Japan Cup. What is the ‘team strategy’ each camp will employ to aim for the first foreign victory in 20 years? We break down the strengths and challenges of each horse, including the top European contender Calandagan and the Irish Derby winner Los Angeles, who is looking for a comeback.
The 2025 Japan Cup is a pivotal year that once again questions its identity as an international race. According to the JRA’s announcement, a total of four foreign-trained horses—two from A. O’Brien’s stable in Ireland and two from F. Graffard’s stable in France—have accepted invitations. These four challengers are not just taking on Japan’s formidable horses; they are confronting the “wall” of the Japan Cup itself, which has denied a foreign victory for 20 years, since Alkaased (UK) won in 2005.
This 20-year “victory drought” reflects the dramatic improvement in the quality of Japanese horse racing and the unique suitability required for the high-speed 2400m turf at Tokyo Racecourse. Notably, two of Europe’s top trainers are each bringing two horses, employing a “team strategy.” This suggests a strong determination from the European contingent to conquer this impregnable fortress not just with individual talent, but with strategic intent. The four horses will arrive at Narita Airport on November 20th and move to the international stables at Tokyo Racecourse to prepare for the decisive battle. This report provides a thorough analysis and evaluation of their profiles, recent performances, and suitability for the Tokyo 2400m stage.
| Horse Name | Age/Sex | Trainer (Country) | Sire | Major G1 Wins & Recent Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | 4yo Colt | A. O’Brien (IRE) | Camelot | 3 G1 wins (’24 Irish Derby, ’25 Tattersalls GC, etc.). Last start: 17th in Arc de Triomphe. |
| Queenstown | 5yo Gelding | A. O’Brien (IRE) | Galileo | Only a maiden win. A stayer with recent 3rd in Prix du Cadran (G1, 4000m) and 2nd in Prix Royal-Oak (G1, 3100m). |
| Calandagan | 4yo Gelding | F. Graffard (FR) | Gleneagles | On a 3-race G1 winning streak (Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, King George, Champion S). Defeated the world’s top-ranked horse in his last start. |
| Goliath | 5yo Gelding | F. Graffard (FR) | Adlerflug | 2 G1 wins (’24 King George, ’25 Grosser Preis von Baden). Last start: 11th in BC Turf. 6th in last year’s JC. |
Calandagan (4yo Gelding, FR, F. Graffard, by Gleneagles) is owned by the Aga Khan Studs and is currently considered one of the closest contenders for the title of Europe’s best. His three consecutive G1 victories in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, and the British Champion Stakes are all top-tier European turf races. His career record of 7 wins from 13 starts has been achieved entirely on turf. His sire, Gleneagles, was an excellent miler, and the fact that Calandagan is a gelding is crucial to understanding his career. As a gelding, he is not bound by stallion value, allowing his career to be focused on maximizing his racing ability and prize money.
Calandagan’s performance in the 2025 season has reached an awakening. He has secured three consecutive G1 wins at different distances and racecourses: the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (G1, 2400m), the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1, 2390m), and the British Champion Stakes (G1, 2000m). His most notable performance was in the Champion Stakes, where he decisively defeated Ombudsman, then ranked as the world’s number one horse, by 2 ¼ lengths. The race was run at a solid pace, and while Ombudsman challenged him in the straight, Calandagan reportedly showed a superior change of gear to pull away. This G1 treble demonstrates both his 2400m stamina and his 2000m speed and turn of foot. His ability to deliver a sharp finishing kick, despite being a European horse, is precisely the quality required for the Japan Cup.
What makes Calandagan a top contender for the Japan Cup is not just his record, but the fact that he left the world’s number one horse behind with his “change of gear.” He displayed a Japanese-style “kire” (finishing kick) on the tough Ascot turf. The only concern is whether he can instantly adapt to Japan’s firm and fast “high-speed track.” However, the trainer’s “experience” may alleviate this concern. Trainer Graffard experienced the Japan Cup firsthand last year with Goliath, finishing 6th. He understands the firmness of the Japanese track and the unique race pace better than anyone. His decision to send Calandagan to Japan is a testament to his confidence that the horse can overcome the challenge of a race decided by a turn of foot.
Goliath (5yo Gelding, FR, F. Graffard, by Adlerflug) is Calandagan’s stablemate and will be making his second consecutive appearance in the Japan Cup. His greatest asset is his “experience” from finishing 6th in the 2024 Japan Cup. He has already been through the long-distance travel, quarantine, and the unique race environment and pace of Japan. Analyzing last year’s race, he tracked mid-pack and closed with a very fast final 600m of 33.5 seconds to finish 6th, indicating he was simply out-kicked in the final stretch. This experience and data are invaluable assets for the Graffard stable in formulating their 2025 “team strategy.”
Goliath is a talented horse who won the 2024 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1). He made a comeback in the 2025 season by winning the Grosser Preis von Baden (G1) on September 7th. However, his performance in 2025 has lacked consistency. After his Baden victory, his connections paid a hefty supplementary entry fee to travel to the United States.
Goliath competed in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) at Del Mar on November 1st, but finished a disappointing 11th. This result is a serious concern for his Japan Cup challenge. He is in the midst of a grueling global campaign and is in a situation where fatigue is a worry, just a few weeks after a poor showing in the US. Considering this and the overwhelming performance of his stablemate Calandagan, it is reasonable to analyze Goliath’s role in 2025 not as the “ace,” but as “support.” It is highly likely that Graffard will use him, with his course experience and stamina, to set a strong pace for the ace or to act as a “shield” by drawing the attention of Japan’s top contenders.
Los Angeles (4yo Colt, IRE, A. O’Brien, by Camelot) is a three-time G1-winning classic horse from the prestigious O’Brien stable.
Los Angeles has won three G1 races: the 2023 Critérium de Saint-Cloud (G1, 2000m), the 2024 Irish Derby (G1, 2400m), and the 2025 Tattersalls Gold Cup (G1, 2100m). His 2024 season was particularly brilliant, with a 3rd in the Epsom Derby, 1st in the Irish Derby, and 3rd in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, establishing him as a top contender of his generation. His profile, having triumphed at the classic distance of “2400m”—exactly the same as the Japan Cup—is, in theory, ideal.
After a promising start to 2025 with a win in the Tattersalls Gold Cup (G1) in May, things started to go wrong. He had a series of uninspiring runs, finishing 5th in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, 4th in the Royal Whip Stakes, and 4th in the Prix Foy. This culminated in his last start, where he suffered the biggest defeat of his career, finishing 17th in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1), a race in which he had performed well to finish 3rd in 2024.
This trip to the Japan Cup is nothing less than a bid for his “comeback.” Trainer A. O’Brien may be betting that Los Angeles strongly disliked the tough European ground in the autumn of 2025. The firm and fast track at Tokyo Racecourse could be the “remedy” to restore his 2024 brilliance. This makes him the biggest “X-factor” among the entrants. To make this gamble succeed, O’Brien is bringing his stablemate Queenstown. By having the stayer Queenstown lead the race and turn it into a pure 2400m stamina contest, O’Brien aims to create the best possible chance for Los Angeles to win.
Queenstown (5yo Gelding, IRE, A. O’Brien, by Galileo) is the most unusual entry among this year’s invitees.
Although Queenstown’s only win was in a maiden race on his third start, his true value lies in his distance suitability. In his last two starts, he has performed well in Europe’s premier ultra-long-distance G1 races. He finished 3rd in the 4000m Prix du Cadran (G1) and 2nd in the 3100m Prix Royal-Oak (G1), proving his mettle in races where stamina is paramount.
Why would a 4000m horse enter the 2400m Japan Cup? He is Los Angeles’s stablemate, his running style is “front-runner,” and his trainer is A. O’Brien. From these facts, his role becomes 100% clear. Queenstown’s mission is to serve as a “pacemaker (rabbit)” for the ace, Los Angeles. Using his Galileo-sired stamina, he will set a fast pace over Tokyo’s 2400m, aiming to neutralize the “turn of foot” of the Japanese horses and turn the race into a stamina contest for his stablemate. His entry is a purely tactical move.
| Horse Name | 2025 Major G1 Wins | Recent Major Race Performance | JC Suitability (2400m) | JC Suitability (Firm Ground) | Analyst’s Rating (Role) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calandagan | 3 G1 Wins (FR/UK) | 1st in Champion S | ◎ (2400m G1 Winner) | △ (Unknown) | Ace (Top Contender) |
| Goliath | Grosser Preis von Baden (G1) | 11th in BC Turf | ◯ (JC 6th Experience) | ◯ (Experienced) | Support (Experience/Shield) |
| Los Angeles | Tattersalls GC (G1) | 17th in Arc de Triomphe | ◎ (2400m G1 Winner) | ◎ (High Hopes) | Ace (X-Factor) |
| Queenstown | (None) | 2nd in Prix Royal-Oak (3100m) | × (Too Short) | × (Unsuitable) | Support (Pacemaker) |
The challenge of the foreign horses in the 2025 Japan Cup is clearly structured as a battle between two “teams.”
CalandaganHe has the best profile. He has won G1s at both 2400m and 2000m and possesses the “change of gear” essential for the Tokyo straight. His trainer is also familiar with the Japanese track, making him the closest to achieving a victory after 20 years.Los AngelesHe embodies the highest risk and the highest reward. His profile is perfect, but his recent form is terrible. It’s a huge gamble on whether the fast Tokyo track will “cure” him, but the presence of a dedicated pacemaker is a powerful advantage.GoliathHis chances of winning are slim. The grueling travel and his performance last year suggest he is a step below the winning level, and his role will likely be to support his stablemate.QueenstownHis chance of winning is zero. His purpose is 100% tactical. The success of Team O’Brien depends on how fast he can lead and disrupt the race.
The defeats of foreign horses over the past 20 years were often due to a fundamental mismatch: sending European-style “stamina horses” into Japan’s “speed races.” However, the 2025 challengers have clearly learned from this lesson. Calandagan is a finisher with a “kick,” and Los Angeles is a “true” classic horse.
The 2025 foreign contingent is one of the most “strategic” and “suitable” lineups in recent years. In particular, the “team strategies” adopted by the O’Brien and Graffard stables are designed to maximize the talent of their aces. Calandagan is the leading contender, and his world-class record and un-European-like “turn of foot” hold enough potential to break down the 20-year “wall” built by the local Japanese horses.