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Horse Racing Value Analysis

November 23, 2025

A high dividend investment strategy indicated by the Professional Index.

Key Takeaways

  • Analysis of market odds distortions using proprietary metrics to identify high expected value horses.
  • Discovery of “hidden gems” in morning races with potential for significant improvement.
  • Recommendation of Elton Barows as an undervalued investment target for the G1 Mile Championship.
  • Proposal of a portfolio strategy combining solid “Core Anchors” with high-dividend “Value Generators”.

Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary
  2. Morning Opportunity: “Hidden Gems”
  3. Technical Mid-Card: Re-evaluation
  4. The Feature Event: G1 Mile Championship
  5. Conclusion: Strategic Recommendations
  6. Disclaimer

Executive Summary

On Saturday, November 23, 2025, the central horse racing events at Kyoto and Tokyo Racecourses exhibit significant market inefficiencies detected by the proprietary “Professional Index” model. This report focuses on “Value Degree,” the discrepancy between market odds and statistical win probability, to identify horses with high investment value.

Core of the Analysis Framework:

The analysis centers on “Pro Favorite Index” and “Pro Rival Index,” but the most crucial factor is their deviation from real-time odds, quantified as “Value Degree.” Values exceeding 100% suggest a positive expected value. The day’s lineup includes multiple horses exhibiting “abnormal values” exceeding 200% or even 300%, indicating public psychological biases are obscuring true ability.

Morning Opportunity: “Hidden Gems”

Tokyo Race 1: 2-Year-Old Maiden (Dirt 1300m)

Big Chance

“Hidden sprinter” with explosive speed.

Popularity

12th

AI Return

230%

Rival Index

32

Pedigree: Sire Big Arthur produces early-maturing offspring with excellent initial acceleration, a key advantage at Tokyo Dirt 1300m.

Road Straddler

“Classic dirt” pedigree.

Popularity

8th

AI Return

255%

Rival Index

32

Pedigree: Sire Lord Kanaloa, dam’s sire Tiznow. The market has not fully priced in the expected improvement from a distance reduction.

Kyoto Races 1-5

Yamanin Feuer (Race 1)

Value Degree

203%

Fusion of sire’s stamina and dam’s sire’s dirt suitability. Trainer comment “dirt suits him better” indicates high probability of success.

Crack Shot (Race 2)

Value Degree

361%

Pro Favorite Index of 81% indicates “almost certain to win,” yet only 2nd favorite. An astonishing value.

Namura Wonder (Race 3)

Value Degree

233%

Reliable dirt pedigree with exceptional finishing speed in training. 6th favorite rating is excessively unfair.

Schnell Ange (Race 4)

Value Degree

179%

Possesses “early maturity” and “absolute speed.” Reliability is higher than odds suggest, making him a “sure thing” anchor.

Sky Splendor (Race 5)

Value Degree

180%

European pedigree emphasizing stamina. Exceptional training speed. Pro Favorite Index of 75% proves his ability.

Technical Mid-Card: Re-evaluation

Nihonpiro Karat (Race 6)

Value Degree

164%

Perfect balance of stamina and sprint at 1400m. Outstanding training time reflects current form.

Lot Blata (Race 7)

Value Degree

302%

Winning record at this course and distance. Significant betting value even as the favorite; immense reliability.

Shonan Kabuto (Race 8)

Value Degree

377%

Unconventional pool training is perceived negatively by the market, creating high value. A high-risk, high-return target.

Key Wave (Race 9)

Value Degree

229%

Balance between “uncontrollable risk” and “potential explosive power” creates investment appeal. A major upset is possible.

The Feature Event: G1 Mile Championship

Raijin (Race 10)

Value Degree

464%

Highest Value Degree of the day. Market rates him low, but Pro Rival Index suggests he can compete. A major long shot.

Elton Barows (Race 11 – G1)

Value Degree

237%

11th favorite rating is unfair. Pedigree suggests strength in tough conditions. Extremely valuable investment target.

Pax Romana (Race 12)

Value Degree

352%

Improves significantly in second race after a break. Pro Index judges him capable of competing at the top despite low rating.

Conclusion: Strategic Recommendations

Today’s strategy is to “solidify defense with Core Anchors while aiming for home runs with Value Generators.”

Core Anchors

(Asset Protection)

  • Crack Shot
  • Sky Splendor
  • Schnell Ange

Value Generators

(Profit Maximization)

  • Raijin
  • Shonan Kabuto
  • Pax Romana

Sweet Spot

(G1 Strategy)

  • Elton Barows

This report is based on predictions from statistical models and training analysis and does not guarantee future results. Please understand that horse racing involves uncertainties and make investments at your own risk.

ヤナシ社長(旧:生成系競馬予想)

競馬予想家 (経験20年)

データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。

専門分野: AIを使った競馬予想。生成AIを使ったコンテンツ作成
実績・資格:

主な活動実績 AI競馬マスターズ2023: 3位入賞 俺プロ: 馬将認定 参考成績(中央): https://yoso.netkeiba.com/?pid=yosoka_profile&id=562 参考成績(地方): https://yoso.netkeiba.com/nar/?pid=yosoka_profile&id=562

ヤナシ社長(旧:生成系競馬予想)

データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。

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ヤナシ社長(旧:生成系競馬予想)