November 23, 2025
A high dividend investment strategy indicated by the Professional Index.
Key Takeaways
- Analysis of market odds distortions using proprietary metrics to identify high expected value horses.
- Discovery of “hidden gems” in morning races with potential for significant improvement.
- Recommendation of Elton Barows as an undervalued investment target for the G1 Mile Championship.
- Proposal of a portfolio strategy combining solid “Core Anchors” with high-dividend “Value Generators”.
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- Morning Opportunity: “Hidden Gems”
- Technical Mid-Card: Re-evaluation
- The Feature Event: G1 Mile Championship
- Conclusion: Strategic Recommendations
- Disclaimer
Executive Summary
On Saturday, November 23, 2025, the central horse racing events at Kyoto and Tokyo Racecourses exhibit significant market inefficiencies detected by the proprietary “Professional Index” model. This report focuses on “Value Degree,” the discrepancy between market odds and statistical win probability, to identify horses with high investment value.
Core of the Analysis Framework:
The analysis centers on “Pro Favorite Index” and “Pro Rival Index,” but the most crucial factor is their deviation from real-time odds, quantified as “Value Degree.” Values exceeding 100% suggest a positive expected value. The day’s lineup includes multiple horses exhibiting “abnormal values” exceeding 200% or even 300%, indicating public psychological biases are obscuring true ability.
Morning Opportunity: “Hidden Gems”
Tokyo Race 1: 2-Year-Old Maiden (Dirt 1300m)
Big Chance
“Hidden sprinter” with explosive speed.
Popularity
12th
AI Return
230%
Rival Index
32
Pedigree: Sire Big Arthur produces early-maturing offspring with excellent initial acceleration, a key advantage at Tokyo Dirt 1300m.
Road Straddler
“Classic dirt” pedigree.
Popularity
8th
AI Return
255%
Rival Index
32
Pedigree: Sire Lord Kanaloa, dam’s sire Tiznow. The market has not fully priced in the expected improvement from a distance reduction.
Kyoto Races 1-5
Yamanin Feuer (Race 1)
Value Degree
203%
Fusion of sire’s stamina and dam’s sire’s dirt suitability. Trainer comment “dirt suits him better” indicates high probability of success.
Crack Shot (Race 2)
Value Degree
361%
Pro Favorite Index of 81% indicates “almost certain to win,” yet only 2nd favorite. An astonishing value.
Namura Wonder (Race 3)
Value Degree
233%
Reliable dirt pedigree with exceptional finishing speed in training. 6th favorite rating is excessively unfair.
Schnell Ange (Race 4)
Value Degree
179%
Possesses “early maturity” and “absolute speed.” Reliability is higher than odds suggest, making him a “sure thing” anchor.
Sky Splendor (Race 5)
Value Degree
180%
European pedigree emphasizing stamina. Exceptional training speed. Pro Favorite Index of 75% proves his ability.
Technical Mid-Card: Re-evaluation
Nihonpiro Karat (Race 6)
Value Degree
164%
Perfect balance of stamina and sprint at 1400m. Outstanding training time reflects current form.
Lot Blata (Race 7)
Value Degree
302%
Winning record at this course and distance. Significant betting value even as the favorite; immense reliability.
Shonan Kabuto (Race 8)
Value Degree
377%
Unconventional pool training is perceived negatively by the market, creating high value. A high-risk, high-return target.
Key Wave (Race 9)
Value Degree
229%
Balance between “uncontrollable risk” and “potential explosive power” creates investment appeal. A major upset is possible.
The Feature Event: G1 Mile Championship
Raijin (Race 10)
Value Degree
464%
Highest Value Degree of the day. Market rates him low, but Pro Rival Index suggests he can compete. A major long shot.
Elton Barows (Race 11 – G1)
Value Degree
237%
11th favorite rating is unfair. Pedigree suggests strength in tough conditions. Extremely valuable investment target.
Pax Romana (Race 12)
Value Degree
352%
Improves significantly in second race after a break. Pro Index judges him capable of competing at the top despite low rating.
Conclusion: Strategic Recommendations
Today’s strategy is to “solidify defense with Core Anchors while aiming for home runs with Value Generators.”
Core Anchors
(Asset Protection)
- Crack Shot
- Sky Splendor
- Schnell Ange
Value Generators
(Profit Maximization)
- Raijin
- Shonan Kabuto
- Pax Romana
Sweet Spot
(G1 Strategy)
- Elton Barows
This report is based on predictions from statistical models and training analysis and does not guarantee future results. Please understand that horse racing involves uncertainties and make investments at your own risk.
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