Copa República Argentina: Boldog Hush’s Comeback? In-depth analysis of Logicape (95% Index) & more.
November 9, 2025
A thorough analysis of key races at Tokyo Racecourse on November 9, 2025, including the G2 Copa República Argentina. We’ve selected 12 horses with true value based on the ‘gap’ between expert indices and expected odds, combined with qualitative data like training reports and stable comments. Get betting strategies featuring Logicape, boasting a 95% index, and the highly anticipated comeback of Boldog Hush.
Article Highlights
- Banker Bet: Logicape in Tokyo 3R is extremely reliable, with a 95% expert index and strong qualitative data.
- Today’s Best Value: Anzu Ame in Tokyo 8R shows a 328% value score, marking the largest “distortion” between expert opinion and public popularity.
- G2 Copa República Argentina: G1-proven Boldog Hush is expected to be 5th favorite. A prime candidate for a comeback with attractive odds.
- Dark Horse Candidates: Several longshots identified, including Neckarsulm in Tokyo 4R, praised for “flawless movement” in training.
Detailed Analysis: 6 Picks Based on Qualitative Data & Index
In this section, we dive deep into six horses for which we have gathered qualitative information such as training evaluations, stable comments, and jockey feedback.
Tokyo 1R 2YO Maiden – Frontear Moon
Expected Popularity
3rd
Pro Favorite Index
25%
Value Score
175%
Despite being the 3rd favorite, the Pro Favorite Index is 25%, indicating a higher evaluation than its popularity, and the 175% Value Score suggests good value. The Kunieda stable’s cautious comment, “Needs a little more punch,” could imply the horse hasn’t shown its full potential yet. Supporting this, a training report from Miho Training Center on Nov 6th noted “showing improvement after one race,” confirming an upward trend in condition.
A jockey interview from the previous race pointed out temperament issues: “a bit wary of other horses” and “reluctant to charge into the pack.” However, the jockey also commented, “should be fine with more experience,” showing confidence in its ability to learn.
Prediction Point:
The value (175%) lies in this “improvement” and “experience.” The clear progress shown in training is key to overcoming the temperament issues from the last race. If the horse can run more calmly with race experience, it’s expected to live up to its high 25% Pro Favorite Index.
Tokyo 2R 2YO Maiden – Olvright
Expected Popularity
9th
Pro Favorite Index
3%
Value Score
195%
Despite a low expected popularity of 9th, the Value Score is 195% against a 3% Pro Favorite Index, marking it as a classic “dark horse.” The Sugiura stable commented, “The time wasn’t bad. If the position and pace work out,” suggesting they are waiting for a breakthrough rather than dismissing its ability.
That “breakthrough” could come from its training on the Miho woodchip course on Nov 5th, where it received a positive note of “showing more agility,” indicating an improvement in its physical condition.
Prediction Point:
While the general public rates it as the 9th favorite, qualitative data from training shows clear improvement. The 195% Value Score indicates that betting on this underdog’s potential and improving condition is worth more than the odds suggest. If the “pace works out” as the stable hopes, this horse has the potential for an upset.
Tokyo 3R 2YO Maiden – Logicape
Expected Popularity
1st
Pro Favorite Index
95%
Value Score
214%
This is the most reliable horse of the day. Against its 1st favorite status, the Pro Favorite Index is an astonishing 95%. The exceptionally high Value Score of 214% for a favorite shows just how much of a sure thing the experts consider it to be.
Qualitative data backs this up. The Ogata Kazuo stable has publicly stated their high expectations: “The shorter distance should be a plus” and “We expect it to be in contention to win.” The training evaluation from Miho on Nov 5th was “stable at a high level,” confirming its perfect condition. While the jockey noted a temperament issue in the last race (“got worked up in the warm-up and behind the gate”), they also mentioned “we made it a patient race,” indicating that training is already underway.
Prediction Point:
All qualitative information—from the stable, training, and jockey feedback—strongly supports the overwhelming 95% Pro Index. The only concern, its temperament, is likely to be resolved by the shorter distance and race experience. It’s a horse you can place absolute trust in as an anchor bet.
Tokyo 4R 2YO Maiden – Neckarsulm
Expected Popularity
6th
Pro Favorite Index
8%
Value Score
243%
Despite being the 6th favorite, this horse has one of the best value scores of the day at 243%. The Tsuchida stable has clear expectations for improvement in its second race, stating, “We want to see a difference with the benefit of one race under its belt.” The most crucial piece of information for this horse is the training report from Miho on Nov 5th, where it received the highest praise: “Its movement is simply flawless.” The current situation is that this “flawless” movement has not yet translated into race performance.
Prediction Point:
While public opinion (6th favorite) remains low, its training movement has been lauded by experts. This is a classic case of hidden potential not yet displayed in a race. If the “benefit of one race” that the stable is counting on materializes, there’s a high chance this “flawless” movement will connect to its performance. A 243% Value Score indicates that betting on this horse’s “transformation” is well worth it.
Tokyo 5R 2YO Newcomer – Luster Verse
Expected Popularity
5th
Pro Favorite Index
13%
Value Score
224%
Even for a newcomer race, the index has picked this horse as a value bet with 5th expected popularity and a 224% Value Score. There’s a “contradiction” in its evaluation. The managing Maki stable is positive, saying, “It’s been getting better with each workout. It has a straightforward personality and is willing to run.” On the other hand, a third-party evaluation of its training at Miho on Nov 5th was a “C grade,” with a comment of “unremarkable presence.”
Prediction Point:
This “information contradiction” is the source of its value. The general public sees the objective C grade and keeps it at 5th favorite. However, the Pro Favorite Index (13%) and high Value Score (224%) suggest that, while factoring in the risk, the stable’s assessment of its “straightforward personality” and “willingness to run” could be major assets in a newcomer race. There’s a risk with the C grade, but this should be seen as a chance to bet on a horse with good stable feedback at long odds.
Tokyo 11R Copa República Argentina (G2) – Boldog Hush
Expected Popularity
5th
Pro Favorite Index
7%
Value Score
162%
In the G2 Copa República Argentina, the focus is on Boldog Hush, expected to be the 5th favorite. This horse has a top-class pedigree, with past strong performances in G1 races (Kikuka Sho, Arima Kinen). However, its last win was in a 2-win class race three and a half years ago, and it’s been a long time since it has won. This reality is reflected in its 5th favorite status, but the camp is showing strong determination for this race, stating, “We want to signal a comeback.”
Prediction Point:
This is a classic case of weighing “current form” against “past class.” The 7% Pro Favorite Index is skeptical, focusing on form. But the 5th favorite status (162% Value Score) offers more than enough value to bet on the “comeback” of a G1-caliber horse. Furthermore, analysis of this race’s trends shows that “front-runners are at a significant disadvantage,” which could favor this horse’s late-charging style. The camp’s determination and its past class are well worth betting on.
Index-Based Analysis: 6 Picks Based on Data
In this section, we provide recommendations for six horses without detailed qualitative data, focusing solely on the numerical interpretation of the provided indices (Expected Popularity, Pro Favorite Index, Value Score).
Tokyo 6R 2YO Newcomer – Peace Sign
Expected Popularity
5th
Pro Favorite Index
25%
Value Score
258%
Prediction Point:
In newcomer races, odds are often shaped by pedigree, stable, and jockey popularity. Against this horse’s 5th favorite status, the Pro Favorite Index is 25%, a very high rating from experts. This large gap between popularity and index is reflected in the very high 258% Value Score. This suggests its good condition or talent may not be reflected in the odds, making it one of the most valuable patterns in a newcomer race.
Tokyo 7R 3YO+ 1-Win Class – Sonnentanz
Expected Popularity
2nd
Pro Favorite Index
40%
Value Score
169%
Prediction Point:
While it has strong support from the general public (2nd favorite), the expert support is even higher at 40%. This is a candidate for an anchor bet that is both “logical” and “valuable.” The 40% Pro Favorite Index shows high reliability, and the 169% Value Score indicates it’s not over-hyped and still in a “good value” state.
Tokyo 8R 3YO+ 2-Win Class – Anzu Ame
Expected Popularity
4th
Pro Favorite Index
70%
Value Score
328%
Prediction Point:
This is today’s “Best Value Bet.” Public opinion places it fourth, but the expert rating is an overwhelming 70%, second only to Logicape (95%) in Tokyo 3R. The Value Score is the highest of the day at 328%. The fact that public popularity is low despite such a high expert index suggests the existence of a strong “buy” factor known only to experts. From an index analysis perspective, there is no better value bet.
Tokyo 9R Oxalis Sho – Alde Top Gun
Expected Popularity
8th
Pro Favorite Index
14%
Value Score
206%
Prediction Point:
A typical “dark horse.” Public opinion is low at 8th favorite, but the expert rating is 14%, not nearly as low as its popularity suggests. This discrepancy between popularity and rating creates a high Value Score of 206%. While overlooked by the general public, it is highly valuable to include in combination bets.
Tokyo 10R Equinox M – Mozu Rock n Roll
Expected Popularity
6th
Pro Favorite Index
6%
Value Score
163%
Prediction Point:
For this horse, public opinion (6th favorite) and expert opinion (6%) are nearly identical. However, the Value Score remains positive at 163%. This indicates that while the expert rating itself is not high, the odds are set even “cheaper.” Not a strong recommendation, but a mathematically advantageous mid-range longshot to consider if the odds are right.
Tokyo 12R 3YO+ 2-Win Class – Silver Rain
Expected Popularity
3rd
Pro Favorite Index
20%
Value Score
181%
Prediction Point:
While public opinion is high at 3rd favorite, the expert rating (20%) supports this. The 181% Value Score shows that even as a popular horse, there is still value in the odds. Similar to Sonnentanz in Tokyo 7R, this is a recommended pick with a good balance of reliability and payout potential.
Conclusion
Today’s races at Tokyo Racecourse offer some fascinating opportunities from an index analysis perspective. Of particular note are Logicape in Tokyo 3R, with a 95% expert index and perfect marks in stable comments and training, and Anzu Ame in Tokyo 8R, which shows the largest “distortion” with a 70% expert index against 4th favorite status, resulting in a 328% Value Score.
Also keep an eye on the improvement of Neckarsulm in Tokyo 4R (243% Value Score), praised for “flawless movement” in training, and the performance of Boldog Hush (162% Value Score) in the Tokyo 11R Copa República Argentina, where a comeback of its G1-class talent is anticipated. We hope this data and analysis will be a valuable aid in your betting strategy.
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