November 8, 2025
On November 8, 2025, autumn’s JRA races will be held at Tokyo, Kyoto, and Fukushima. Based on our unique expected value data and the latest information, we have carefully selected six horses to watch in today’s races. From Estupenda, the 1st favorite with an expected value of 183%, to Lord Trail, a 13th favorite aiming for an upset, we provide detailed explanations of each horse’s recommended reasons and prediction points. Please use this as a reference for your betting strategy.
Key Takeaways from This Article
- Tokyo 8R Estupenda: The 1st favorite with an expected value of 183%. Its greatest weapon is its “outstanding finishing burst.”
- Kyoto 2R Patrona: With a jockey change to C. Demuro, expectations are high for the unleashing of its hidden “finishing burst.”
- Fukushima 2R Hardy Genner: Expected to have grown both physically and mentally since its debut, can it live up to its 1st favorite status?
- Tokyo 3R Fondorelle: Its racing intelligence and stamina, unafraid of crowded fields, will be effective on Tokyo’s long straight.
- Fukushima 4R Fukuchanhime: A 12th favorite longshot. If its high potential, praised by the stable, blossoms, it could cause a major upset.
- Fukushima 11R Lord Trail: The gap between its workout evaluation and stable comments makes it an intriguing prospect, not to be underestimated even as a 13th favorite.
【Tokyo 8R 3YO+ 2-Win Class】 No. 6 Estupenda
1st Favorite with an Expected Value of 183% — The Basis for this Astonishing Figure
Among today’s highlighted horses, Estupenda stands out the most. Despite being the overwhelming 1st favorite, its “Expected Value of 183%” suggests that the market’s assessment has not yet caught up with this horse’s true ability. The main reason for this is its rare burst of speed, which experts describe as an “outstanding finishing burst.” This “finishing burst” is Estupenda’s greatest weapon.
According to research, the stable is clearly targeting this Tokyo stage. Trainer Mizuki Takayanagi explicitly stated, “A long straight course suits her.” This is a clear indication of their confidence that this is the ideal stage to maximize her explosive late kick. On the other hand, the fact that a 1st favorite horse has such a high expected value indicates the presence of “risks” factored in by the market. Several sources point to difficulty in “handling” (temperament). Trainer Takayanagi also said, “It all comes down to her handling,” making it a key focus on how relaxed she can run in the race.
However, there is enough positive information to outweigh these risks. Firstly, the horse’s own maturity has significantly increased. The workout report summary from the latest training data gave the highest praise: “In excellent physical condition, movement stands out.” The workout trend arrow also shows “↗” (improving), indicating she is likely reaching the best physical and mental condition of her career. In a workout on October 29, jockey Keita Tosaki himself rode her, showing “brisk movement” and sharp strides, suggesting perfect communication with the rider.
Estupenda is a talented horse equipped with an engine so powerful it can be difficult to control. The sole concern of her “handling” is highly likely to be resolved by her own growth and the setting of the long straight Tokyo course. With the market currently overestimating that risk, the 183% expected value might represent an excellent opportunity to bet on her “completion.”
Prediction Points
Reason for Recommendation: The stable’s confidence in “handling” and excellent workout condition
The biggest reason to recommend this horse is that the stable clearly understands both the challenge (handling) and the solution (long straight course). Trainer Takayanagi’s statement, “It all comes down to her handling,” is, in essence, an expression of confidence that her ability is exceptional if only that issue is cleared. Supporting this confidence, she is in top condition, as evidenced by the praise “In excellent physical condition, movement stands out” in her final workout.
Pedigree Background and Course Suitability
According to pedigree data, her sire is Real Steel. Being a direct son of Deep Impact, he is the source of the “finishing burst” Estupenda inherited. The Tokyo turf 2000m stage is the most suitable condition to unleash her full potential.
Race Outlook
Strong contenders such as Classified (Jockey Lemaire) and Be On The Cover (Jockey Poosah) are also in this race, but experts’ ratings heavily favor Estupenda with many “◎” (top pick) marks, dominating the others. Jockey Keita Tosaki will calmly guide her, trusting her “finishing burst,” and unleash her late kick on Tokyo’s long uphill straight.
【Kyoto 2R 2YO Maiden】 No. 6 Patrona
Unleashing a “Finishing Burst” with Star Jockey C. Demuro Aboard
3rd favorite, 152% expected value. This “value” indicated by the data stems from Patrona’s high hidden potential and the “jockey upgrade” to draw it out. Experts rate her as having a “finishing burst,” praising the sharpness of her late kick. To maximize this potential, the stable’s move was a jockey change to “C. Demuro.” It will be fascinating to see how the world-class jockey navigates the Kyoto turf 1400m, where pathfinding is key.
Furthermore, the stable’s comments are assertive. Trainer Ryo Takahashi emphasized that the horse is in perfect condition, stating, “We took time to reset and refresh her.” He also showed absolute confidence in the distance, saying, “1400 meters suits her.” The workout data shows “maintaining good condition” (arrow “→” for steady), which is perfectly adequate for a horse returning from a refresh. Expert evaluations are also high, with multiple analysts giving her a “◎” (top pick). A talented horse is in perfect shape and has the best jockey aboard. Remaining the 3rd favorite in this situation presents a significant opportunity.
Prediction Points
Reason for Recommendation: “Finishing Burst” + Jockey Change to “Star Jockey”
The reason to recommend this horse is its weapon: the “finishing burst.” This time, to maximize this weapon, jockey C. Demuro has been assigned. This jockey upgrade can be seen as a sign of their strong intent to win.
Perfect Race Rotation
As the stable commented, “We took time to reset and refresh her,” the horse is presumed to be in a fresh state. Workouts also rated her as “maintaining good condition,” indicating she is in a condition to perform at her best.
Race Outlook
In this race, talented horses like Tommy Barrows and Ayrton are present. However, Patrona’s “finishing burst,” if smoothly handled by C. Demuro, is a cut above. We anticipate a race where she skillfully navigates the inner course of Kyoto and extends her late kick in the straight.
【Fukushima 2R 2YO Maiden】 No. 3 Hardy Genner
Reliability as 1st Favorite — “Mental Growth” as the Basis for Improvement
1st favorite, 138% expected value. The data indicates this Silver State progeny’s expected rebound. The basis for this is the clear “improvement” since her debut. Experts’ summaries noted “big loss in debut,” suggesting her last race did not reflect her true ability. The cause of that “loss” was the “mental immaturity” typical of a 2-year-old.
Regarding this challenge of “mental immaturity,” Trainer Nishida provided strong comments. He stated that she is “fresher compared to her debut, which was prepared in the heat,” and that her “mental state has also improved.” “Growth in both mind and body” — this is precisely the reason to trust Hardy Genner as the 1st favorite. Looking at the workout data, she received high praise for “light footwork” in a workout on October 22, indicating a significant improvement in her running balance after being raced. A talented horse, unable to show her full potential due to immaturity, grows both physically and mentally and is set to unveil her true form in her second race. The 138% expected value is a reasonable figure that factors in this growth.
Prediction Points
Reason for Recommendation: The stable’s explicit statement of “mental and physical growth”
The key point for recommending this horse is the stable’s definitive statement that “her mental state has also improved.” They also emphasized her “fresh condition,” suggesting a completely different performance from her debut. The “light footwork” evaluation in workouts is also evidence that the horse has matured.
Pedigree Background
Sire Silver State is known for his progeny’s exceptional burst of speed on turf over middle distances. The Fukushima turf 1800m stage is precisely the optimal condition to utilize that ability.
Race Outlook
Her rivals include horses like Bright Aerial and Bellingham. However, Hardy Genner’s “mental and physical improvement” holds the potential to surpass other horses. This time, an apprentice jockey (Naota Kamisato) will be aboard, also utilizing a weight allowance.
【Tokyo 3R 2YO Maiden】 No. 10 Fondorelle
“Racing Intelligence” Shines on Tokyo’s 2000m Course
4th favorite, 131% expected value. This figure indicates that the market is overlooking Fondorelle’s “extraordinary racing intelligence.” While her sire is Le Vent Se Leve, her true value seems to lie in turf middle distances. Trainer Toda’s comments vividly illustrate this: “She ran without flinching even in a crowded field.” For a 2-year-old, running without fear (flinching) in a crowded field and following the jockey’s instructions requires exceptional mental strength. This “racing intelligence” is her greatest weapon.
Furthermore, jockey Yutaka Yoshida analyzed her characteristic as “having a large stride.” This indicates she is a stamina type that maintains a good pace for a long time rather than relying on a sudden burst of speed, and the Tokyo turf 2000m stage is the ideal condition to leverage this “large stride.” The stable also mentioned in their summary that “her debut was a good lesson, and she will improve further,” expressing expectation for her growth. In her final workout, she received an evaluation of “light movement,” indicating she is in perfect physical condition. While the market tends to focus on horses with flashy bursts of speed, Fondorelle’s “mental strength” and “stamina” will truly shine on Tokyo’s long straight.
Prediction Points
Reason for Recommendation: Stable-recognized “mental strength” and “racing intelligence”
The biggest positive for this horse is the mental toughness she already showed in her debut, “running without flinching even in a crowded field.” In 2-year-old races, this “racing intelligence” is a significant advantage. Trainer Toda is also confident that she can aim higher if physical growth accompanies her, stating, “there is room for improvement.”
Course Suitability and Pedigree
Jockey Yutaka Yoshida’s observation of her “large stride” is a weapon that will truly come alive on the Tokyo turf 2000m. Her pedigree background, by Le Vent Se Leve out of a Kitten’s Joy mare, provides versatility with power and stamina for both turf and dirt, allowing her to handle tough paces.
Race Outlook
Strong rivals such as Cardamom and Play the Lead are in this race. However, Fondorelle’s sustained pace and mental strength hold the potential to compete on equal terms or better with these horses. With jockey Yutaka Yoshida again aboard, we expect her to conserve energy calmly in the crowded field and burst through in the straight.
【Fukushima 4R 3YO+ 1-Win Class】 No. 6 Fukuchanhime
A 12th Favorite Longshot with Hidden “High Ability”
12th favorite, 134% expected value. This longshot designated by the data holds the typical “high-risk, high-return” kind of value. Her current low popularity (12th favorite) is understandable. Even looking at workout data, her final workout was merely “finished reasonably well,” indicating nothing dramatic. The trend arrow was also “→” (steady), not suggesting significant improvement. However, the reason for including this horse in the recommendation list lies solely in Trainer Masahiro Kato’s comment: “She gets highly agitated, but her ability is high.” This internal stable evaluation of “high ability” is the source of the 134% expected value.
The market has lowered her evaluation to 12th favorite due to her “agitation,” a mental fragility, and health concerns (“felt like heatstroke in the summer”). But what if she can channel her intense temperament positively (forward eagerness) in the race? Or if she has recovered from her summer health issues and is in a state to exhibit her true ability, her current popularity is clearly an “underestimation.” Her pedigree, by Drefong out of a Daiwa Major mare, combines speed and power, precisely suited for Fukushima’s small-turn dirt track (1150m). Her workouts aren’t outstanding, and she lacks popularity. However, only the stable knows her “high ability.” For betting purposes, believing the stable’s words and betting on her “awakening” in a longshot scenario could yield significant returns.
Prediction Points
Reason for Recommendation: Stable revealing “potential ability” and “longshot value”
The reason to recommend this horse is her “potential ability,” which is contrary to her popularity (12th favorite). Trainer Masahiro Kato praises her “high ability” while clearly stating the challenge: “gets highly agitated.” This challenge has led to her low popularity, but the returns could be immeasurable if it is resolved.
Pedigree Background and Course Suitability
Her pedigree, Drefong x Daiwa Major (dam’s sire), is known for excellent speed. The Fukushima dirt 1150m stage is conditions where she can fully utilize that speed.
Race Outlook
Horses like Honey Laurier and Idol are popular in this race, but the field composition suggests a potential upset. Although dependent on Fukuchanhime’s “temperament,” if she can get a good start and run at her own pace, she possesses the potential to deliver a performance that defies her popularity.
【Fukushima 11R Kibitaki Stakes】 No. 2 Lord Trail
Defying 13th Favorite Status? The “True Intent” of Stable Comments
13th favorite, 127% expected value. The more this longshot, picked up by the data, is analyzed, the more “ominous” its presence becomes. Firstly, publicly available data is largely negative. Expert summaries note “after big loss, observe quietly.” The final workout evaluation was “somewhat heavy,” and the workout commentary was almost critical, stating, “even considering the rough track conditions, her movement was heavy…” Judging solely by this, 13th favorite is understandable, and she wouldn’t be a horse to bet on.
However, there is one source of information that sends a completely opposite signal: the “stable comments.” Assistant Trainer Nakata acknowledged the negative situation but provided clear reasons for her previous defeat (“Perhaps it was fatigue from consecutive races during the hot season”) and expressed expectations for this race. “She has been reset and is in fresh condition,” and “If she can utilize her speed on the opening week track” — these comments indicate that her internal condition (“fresh”) is better than her workout times or apparent “heavy” movement, and that there is a clear race strategy involving “opening week track” and “speed.”
This striking gap between “workout evaluation (negative)” and “stable comments (positive)” is what generates the 127% expected value. The market, disliking her visibly “heavy movement,” has lowered her evaluation to 13th favorite. However, the data likely judges that the “stable’s internal evaluation” and “track suitability” more than compensate for those negatives. Her sire is Lord Kanaloa. For utilizing speed on a fast track on opening week, this pedigree is second to none.
Prediction Points
Reason for Recommendation: The dramatic gap between “workout” and “stable” comments
The biggest reason for recommendation is the clear “contradiction” between the workout evaluation (“movement was heavy”) and the stable comments (“in fresh condition”). Horses of this type, even if they don’t look good in public workouts, can run spectacularly when the stable judges them to have “been reset,” becoming blind spots in popularity.
Clear Race Plan
The stable has a clear race vision: “If she can utilize her speed on the opening week track.” As a progeny of Lord Kanaloa, the Fukushima turf 1200m conditions are optimal, and she has the potential for a complete turnaround if she can race according to the plan.
Race Outlook
In this race, Salt Queen and Especially will be popular. Lord Trail is in a relaxed position as the 13th favorite, and if jockey Yamato Kakuda can execute the stable’s plan by actively utilizing her speed on the opening week track, she has sufficient qualifications to be the protagonist of a major upset.
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