November 8, 2025 / November 8, 2025
Here is our forecast for the 73rd Hokkoku Oukan, to be held at Kanazawa Racecourse on November 9, 2025. This highly anticipated long-distance race sees 3-year-old champion Ricare Cappuccino challenging the wall of older horses. We thoroughly analyze the suitability, race development, and current condition of key contenders such as Kei Ai Purple, who has a proven record over 2600m, and local hero Mangan, explaining the crucial points to conquer this challenging stamina test.
Before diving into detailed analysis, let’s review the core strengths and recent trends of the five key contenders who are likely to be the stars of this race.
| Horse No. | Horse Name | Sex/Age | Notable Long-Distance Record | Recent Race (Date/Finish/Track Condition) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (10) | Ricare Cappuccino | C.3 | 2 Grade M1 Stakes wins over 2000m | 10/19 Topaz C (1st/Heavy) |
| (4) | Kei Ai Purple | H.9 | Sengun Banba Open (2600m) (1st) | 10/8 Drefong OP (4th/Heavy) |
| (11) | Mangan | H.8 | Hyakumangoku Sho (2100m) (2nd) | 9/30 Inuwashi Sho (1st/Good) |
| (9) | San Tex | H.5 | Meiko Hai (1700m) (1st/Front-run) | 10/27 Rakuten Po (1st/Sloppy) |
| (6) | Hero Call | H.5 | Hochi ASC (2100m) (1st/Front-run) | 10/29 Saitama Shimbun Eikan Sho (8th/Yielding) |
The 2600m dirt course at Kanazawa Racecourse is an extremely tough configuration, featuring no fewer than six turns from the start. On the tight Kanazawa track, where horses find it hard to catch their breath, this distance demands not just stamina, but absolute ‘bottomless energy’ to endure a war of attrition. Therefore, the first step in our forecast is to identify suitability for this unique distance.
Among the 11 horses entered, (4) Kei Ai Purple’s record stands out. He is the only runner in this field with a victory over the exact same 2600m distance as the Hokkoku Oukan. That race was the ‘Sengun Banba Open’ three starts ago, where he won decisively, pulling far ahead of the second-place finisher. The result of this direct confrontation clearly demonstrates his superior stamina on the same stage.
While it’s true he finished 4th in his last two 1800m races, it’s reasonable to interpret these as ‘tune-up’ runs for the main event, this 2600m race. It would be premature to downgrade his evaluation based on defeats at 1800m; a complete re-evaluation is necessary now that he returns to the 2600m stage where absolute stamina is demanded.
While (4) Kei Ai Purple boasts an ‘absolute distance record,’ local Kanazawa horse (11) Mangan counters with ‘course suitability + stamina.’ He is a typical stayer (long-distance horse) and has consistently been campaigned exclusively in middle-to-long distance races of 2000m and 2100m recently. He finished 2nd in the ‘Hyakumangoku Sho’ (2100m) three starts ago and won the ‘Inuwashi Sho’ (2000m) decisively last time out, demonstrating an outstanding record on his home course. Although 2600m is an unknown distance for him, his record at 2100m suggests absolutely no concerns about his stamina.
The sole 3-year-old participating this time is (10) Ricare Cappuccino. His victory in the ‘Ichijo Kinen Michinoku Daishoten’ three starts ago, in particular, saw him overpower strong older horses, proving that he already possesses the ‘class’ to compete with top-tier older horses.
However, the main focus is the distance. His longest experience to date is 2000m, and this race involves an abrupt extension of 600m. Trainer Isao Sugawara expressed confidence after his previous win, stating, “I think [the Hokkoku Oukan] suits him because it’s a long-distance race.” His evaluation hinges on whether his ‘proven class’ can overcome the wall of an ‘unexperienced distance’.
In a long-distance race like 2600m, the biggest factor determining victory or defeat is the ‘pace.’ This time, there are two clear ‘front-runners’ who hold the key to this pace. The actions of these two horses will be the most crucial point in deciding the outcome of the race.
As the data shows, (6) Hero Call is a typical front-runner/early pace setter with no option to hold back. He won the ‘Hochi All-Star Cup’ (2100m) wire-to-wire in February this year, demonstrating his long-distance suitability. However, he also has a weakness when unable to set his own pace, making the interplay with other strong front-running types crucial.
Even more striking than (6) Hero Call, (9) San Tex has shown brilliant front-running tactics in recent starts. He secured his first stakes victory in the ‘Meiko Hai’ three starts ago, and in his last race, he scored a dominant win, pulling away by a large margin even on a sloppy track. In contrast to (6) Hero Call’s recent fade, San Tex enters this race in absolutely top form.
The absolute core of this race forecast is the presence of two horses whose only winning pattern is to lead. If these two horses fiercely contend from the start, a ‘high-paced’ scenario is conceivable, leading to them exhausting their stamina and collapsing together. In such a case, the horses that stand to gain the most are ‘closers’ who can calmly observe the early pace battle and conserve their energy in the mid-pack. Especially (10) Ricare Cappuccino and (11) Mangan, who possess excellent stamina records and a closing style from the mid-pack, become the strongest candidates to benefit from such a race development.
Following stamina (suitability) for 2600m and the race pace (development), the final point is each horse’s ‘condition.’ We will carefully examine recent race performances and the interval leading up to this race (racing schedule) to assess each horse’s physical state.
The condition of the local Kanazawa horses, who will face off against visiting horses from other regions, is extremely good. (9) San Tex, (11) Mangan, and (3) Kurfurst all approach this major race having won their previous starts ‘decisively’ or ‘comfortably.’ For horses from other regions, this represents a significant threat, not just in terms of ‘home-field advantage,’ but even more so due to their ‘momentum’ of being in excellent form.
The racing schedule for 3-year-old (10) Ricare Cappuccino reveals a clear intention from the stable. After a defeat in a JpnII race, he secured a confident victory in an 1800m M2 race without overexertion, and now enters the target ‘Hokkoku Oukan’ on a perfect ’20-day break.’ This is a meticulously planned racing schedule for a 3-year-old to conquer a long-distance stakes race against older horses, leaving no concerns regarding his condition.
In contrast, (6) Hero Call carries significant concerns. After finishing 8th in a stakes race on October 29, he will be running on a tough ’10-day break.’ It will not be easy for a horse that faded in its last race to recover over an even longer distance (an additional 600m) on such a short interval, thus requiring a downgrade in his assessment.
In this article, we have thoroughly analyzed the key points for the 73rd Hokkoku Oukan forecast from three angles: stamina (distance suitability), pace (race development), and condition (racing schedule). Will it be the proven 2600m record, or the momentum of the 3-year-old and the ‘advantage of race development’? And the actions of the two front-runners will dictate the outcome of the race.
The final forecast conclusion, our top pick (◎), and recommended betting selections, based on a comprehensive judgment of these factors, are available for free at the link below.