Heiwa Sho 2025 Predictions: Dosan-kei Star Million Crown vs. Funabashi’s Unbeaten Konyo Bangkok?

The 2025 Heiwa Sho (SIII) is a crucial race that foretells the future of the dirt racing scene. Top contenders from the high-level Dosan-kei (Hokkaido) circuit clash with the elite of the local Minami Kanto region. Key horses to watch include Million Crown, who has performed well in graded turf stakes, and Konyo Bangkok, undefeated at his home track of Funabashi. Data from the past 10 years shows a tendency for upsets, with longshots often making their mark. This article provides a thorough analysis of all runners and previews the race’s outcome.

Key Takeaways

• The spotlight is on Dosan-kei’s Million Crown, with a strong record in graded turf stakes, and Konyo Bangkok, who boasts an undefeated record at Funabashi.
• While the favorite has been reliable over the past 10 years, there’s a trend for upsets, with horses ranked 5th favorite or lower winning 5 times.
• Dosan-kei horses have won this race for the past three consecutive years, making the performance of visiting horses a key factor again this year.
• With multiple horses wanting to take the lead, a fast pace is likely, which could favor closers and stretch runners.

Gateway to the Classics: 2025 Heiwa Sho Outlook

The Heiwa Sho (a trial for the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun, SIII), a crucial race for young horses destined for the dirt racing scene, will be held at Funabashi Racecourse. This 1600m (left-handed) race is part of the “Future Yushun” series and is a must-watch for predicting next year’s classic contenders.

This year’s Heiwa Sho features a compelling matchup between talented horses honed in the high-level Hokkaido Racing circuit and the elite of the local Minami Kanto region. The Dosan-kei contingent includes Million Crown, who has a strong record in graded turf stakes, as well as Crowning Cup and Moere Sawan Miyagi. The Minami Kanto defense is led by Konyo Bangkok, undefeated at his home track of Funabashi, and Sumatra Flavor, who started his career with three consecutive wins.

Analyzing the past 10 years of data reveals interesting trends. The favorite has won 4 times and placed second 3 times, showing high reliability in the money. However, the second and third favorites have both gone winless, struggling in this race. In contrast, horses ranked 5th favorite or lower have won 5 times, highlighting a tendency for upsets. This suggests that factors beyond popularity, such as latent ability and course suitability, significantly impact the results, making detailed analysis key to successful betting.

Furthermore, the recent success of Hokkaido Racing horses cannot be overlooked. Dosan-kei horses have won this race for the past three consecutive years, proving their high level of competition. With three strong contenders participating again this year, they have a good chance of taking control of the race if they can overcome the challenge of long-distance travel. It will be a fascinating test of strength to see if the local horses can halt their momentum.

Heiwa Sho 2025: In-depth Analysis of All Runners

Here is a thorough, data-driven analysis of all nine runners in this year’s Heiwa Sho. Let’s start with a summary of each horse’s key points.

1. Crowning Cup

Record & Evaluation: He has finished 6th in his last two starts, but the reasons for these poor performances are clear. Two starts back, the Junior Grand Prix was a turf race, and in his last race, the Sunrise Cup at 1800m, he faced constant pressure from the outside in a tough trip. His experience traveling to Morioka and the cutback to 1600m should be beneficial. He hasn’t shown his full potential and has plenty of ability to bounce back.

Condition & Training: The training report notes “no drop in condition,” indicating he remains stable. In his final workout, he trained alongside stablemate and top contender Million Crown, handling the left-handed turn smoothly. As the stable suggests, his condition appears to be excellent.

Trainer’s Comments: Trainer Atsushi Tanaka commented, “In his last race, being on the inside, he had a horse on his outside the whole time and couldn’t get into the race mentally. It wasn’t a run that reflected his true ability. If he can run in a good rhythm, he won’t be outmatched.”

Pedigree: Sired by Reach the Crown, whose progeny tend to mature early and perform well around a mile on both turf and dirt. His dam’s sire, Thunder Gulch, was an American classic winner, adding dirt aptitude and stamina. His pedigree suggests that 1600m is his ideal distance.

2. Sumatra Flavor

Record & Evaluation: A local hopeful who won his first three starts. He suffered his first defeat in the Kamakura Kinen (6th), but this can be attributed to a disrupted training schedule due to a race cancellation from a thunderstorm and a pace that was tough on front-runners. The winner was in a class of his own, so this race can be largely ignored. Returning to his home track of Funabashi for his second 1600m race, he deserves a second look.

Condition & Training: In his final workout, he was pushed hard and finished slightly behind his workmate, but the report “no concern about the delay” suggests it was an intentional, strenuous workout. He is also fitted with a shadow roll to improve focus. He appears to be maintaining good form.

Trainer’s Comments: Trainer Takahiro Inamasu said, “His last race was affected by the cancellation and the disrupted schedule. It’s his second time at this distance, so we’re looking for a fresh start.”

Pedigree: Sired by Mozu Ascot, who won G1 races on both turf and dirt. His progeny inherit this versatility and distance flexibility. His dam’s sire, Gleneagles, was a European classic horse who passes on class to his offspring. A promising combination of his sire’s dirt ability and his dam’s high-class lineage.

3. Studia

Record & Evaluation: A well-bred horse whose older brother, Studium, won the 2014 Heiwa Sho and four other graded stakes, including the Haneda Hai. Despite his attractive pedigree, he was soundly beaten by King Perle (also in this race) two starts back and could only manage 3rd in his last outing. He still seems to be developing.

Condition & Training: He was pushed hard in his final workout but fell behind his workmate. However, the stable commented “no concern about the delay,” so it’s likely not a major issue. His overall preparation is considered to be on track.

Trainer’s Comments: Trainer Yoshiyuki Yano stated, “His training has been smooth, and he’s in good shape. The competition is tough, but if he can run at his own pace like last time, he has a chance.” This suggests that getting to the lead is key for him.

Pedigree: Sired by dirt champion Smart Falcon, whose progeny inherit his speed and front-running style. His dam’s sire is Jade Robbery, who adds speed and power on dirt. Given his brother’s success, his pedigree is well-suited for this stage.

4. Moere Sawan Miyagi

Record & Evaluation: A consistent performer who has finished in the top five in all his races. He proved his growing ability in his last start, the Sunrise Cup (graded stake), where he finished a strong 5th as a 10th favorite against tough competition. The first-time left-handed course and long-distance travel are challenges, but he doesn’t seem outclassed. Jockey Kota Motohashi is a strong rider, which is another plus.

Condition & Training: In his training at Monbetsu, he worked on par with older horses, earning a positive report of “moving well against older horses.” He has posted fast times on the uphill track, indicating he is in good condition.

Trainer’s Comments: Trainer Masahiro Saito said, “His 5th place in the graded stake last time showed his potential. There are challenges like travel and the left-handed track, but his ability is not inferior here. If the race flow suits him, he could be exciting.”

Pedigree: Sired by Hokko Tarumae, whose progeny are known for their stamina, power, and strong finish, excelling at middle to long distances on dirt. His dam’s sire is French Deputy, who imparts speed and strength on dirt. His pedigree will be an asset if the race becomes a test of endurance.

5. Haneda Brian

Record & Evaluation: His mid-race surge in the Kagemusha Tokubetsu at Kawasaki last time out was spectacular, resulting in a dominant 4-length victory. It seems his physical and mental aspects are coming together, showing remarkable growth. His experience on the Funabashi course in the Chiba TV Hai (4th) two starts back is a major advantage. He has the potential for an upset if the race unfolds in his favor.

Condition & Training: The training report notes he “improves in races,” suggesting he doesn’t post flashy workout times but performs well on race day. In his final workout, he was pushed hard and finished ahead of his workmate, indicating good form.

Trainer’s Comments: Trainer Hiroki Sato feels confident in his significant improvement, stating, “His response when asked has improved, and he’s growing with each race. His last win was dominant, and his physical and mental sides have aligned. I have no concerns about the distance or course, so I’m looking forward to seeing him in a graded stake.”

Pedigree: Sired by Hokko Tarumae, same as Moere Sawan Miyagi, known for producing tenacious runners. His dam’s sire is Gold Allure, injecting Sunday Silence line speed and dirt aptitude. The Funabashi 1600m, which demands power and stamina, should suit him well.

6. King Perle

Record & Evaluation: The only horse in this field with a victory at the Funabashi 1600m distance. He pulled up in his last race, the Chiba TV Hai, but based on the stable’s comments and his training, there are no lingering effects. His dam’s line includes the famous horse Furioso, and his sire, Le Vent Se Leve, is producing successful offspring from his first crop. His pedigree is excellent, and he should not be underestimated.

Condition & Training: He is moving with vigor, showing no signs of the previous incident. The training report is a strong “no effect from pulling up.” He even set a personal best in his final workout, suggesting his condition might be even better than before.

Trainer’s Comments: Trainer Takahiro Inamasu emphasized his full recovery, saying, “There are no effects from the incident, and his training has been smooth. I believe he has the ability to compete in graded stakes, so I’m expecting a good performance.”

Pedigree: Sired by the dirt monster Le Vent Se Leve. His dam’s sire, Johannesburg, is known for producing early-maturing, speedy offspring. The combination of his sire’s power and his dam’s speed could lead to a highly polished performance.

7. Road Raging

Record & Evaluation: His victory in the Rookies Summer Cup two starts back was extremely impressive and proved his high ability. His 5th place finish in the Kamakura Kinen last time can be excused, as the choppy pace may not have suited him. His closing kick is among the best in the field, and the long straight at Funabashi should suit his running style. If he can unleash his powerful finish, he is capable of sweeping past the entire field.

Condition & Training: The training report notes “stable condition.” He had light work in between races but showed powerful movement in his final workout, where he was pushed hard. He finished far ahead of his workmate, so there are no concerns about his fitness.

Trainer’s Comments: Trainer Seiichi Kato believes he can bounce back, stating, “His last race had a lot of pace changes, and I think the flow just didn’t suit him. His condition itself is good, so I expect him to run well here.”

Pedigree: Sired by Mozu Ascot, same as Sumatra Flavor, possessing dual-surface versatility. His dam’s sire, Neo Universe, is a stallion who imparts power and toughness, with his progeny being particularly strong at middle distances on dirt. His powerful closing kick is backed by this strong pedigree.

8. Million Crown

Record & Evaluation: A high-class horse who has competed on even terms with top central-level rivals, finishing 2nd in the Cosmos Sho (turf) and 8th by a narrow margin in the Sapporo Nisai Stakes (GIII, turf) despite a disadvantage. He has experience on dirt from early in his career, including a win at 1600m. The speed and class he developed on turf place him at the top of this field. If he handles the long-distance travel, he should be a major contender for the win.

Condition & Training: He had a break after his last race, but his training has been excellent, earning the evaluation “moves well after a break.” He handled the left-handed turn without issue in his workout with Crowning Cup, indicating he is fully prepared.

Trainer’s Comments: Trainer Atsushi Tanaka dismissed concerns about the surface change, saying, “While it’s true he’s suited to turf, he’s a horse that can run just as well on dirt. A mile is also a good distance for him, so I expect him to do well.” He has absolute confidence in his dual-surface talent.

Pedigree: Sired by Reach the Crown, same as Crowning Cup. His dam’s sire is Pyro, a top American sire who has produced numerous successful middle-distance dirt horses. The fusion of turf-oriented speed and a powerful dirt pedigree suggests his aptitude for dirt is very high.

9. Konyo Bangkok

Record & Evaluation: He boasts a perfect 3-for-3 record at his home track of Funabashi. He has finished 4th twice when traveling to Ohi, but the winners of those races, Go Buddy in both cases, went on to win graded stakes, so the competition was simply tough. In his last start, the Chiba TV Hai, he handled his first 1700m race with ease, showcasing his excellent race sense. The wide draw, which helps him stay out of trouble, is also a plus. His path to a first graded stakes victory looks clear.

Condition & Training: The training report notes “maintaining good form.” He has been training smoothly since his last race and has shown sharp movement. There are no concerns about his condition, and he should be at his peak for the race.

Trainer’s Comments: Trainer Satoshi Saito is looking to take on the strong competition with his horse’s versatility, saying, “Since his last race, we’ve been aiming for this one, and his training has been smooth. He’s very adaptable, so distance and pace are not an issue. I’m excited to see how he measures up against this strong field.”

Pedigree: Sired by Japan Cup winner Cheval Grand, with his dam’s sire being the mile G1 dominator Maurice. This is a pedigree rich in stamina and power, suggesting he will improve with more distance. The cutback to 1600m should not be a problem; in fact, it might make it easier for him to keep pace.

Race Pace and Key Data

Pace Analysis: A Fast Pace is Inevitable

Looking at this field, there are several horses that want to be on the lead. Sumatra Flavor, who won his early races by dictating the pace; Studia, who, like his brother, wants to run on his own terms; and King Perle, who has a front-running win at Funabashi 1600m, all increase the likelihood of a fast early pace.

This scenario creates a perfect opportunity for closers and stretch runners who can conserve energy mid-race. It could be an ideal setup for horses like Road Raging, who showed a powerful late kick two starts back, and Haneda Brian, who won his last race with a sweeping mid-race move. Versatile horses like Konyo Bangkok and Million Crown, who can sit just off the leaders, will also be in an advantageous position. If the battle for the lead intensifies, stamina and a strong finishing kick will decide the winner.

Data Analysis: Focus on “Previous Race Finish”

A historical trend in the Heiwa Sho is that “horses who finished 2nd or 5th in their previous race often bounce back.” In this year’s field, this applies to Moere Sawan Miyagi, who finished 5th in the Sunrise Cup. Million Crown, who was 2nd in the Cosmos Sho (turf) two starts back, could also fit this successful pattern. This statistic suggests that it’s important to look beyond just the last race finish and consider the quality of the race and the competition. These horses warrant special attention.

Conclusion: See the Expert’s Final Verdict

We have conducted a multi-faceted analysis of all runners in the 2025 Heiwa Sho, covering past performance, training condition, stable comments, pedigree, and overall race pace projections. The race presents a fascinating clash: the proven class of Million Crown from graded turf stakes, the unbeatable course suitability of Konyo Bangkok at Funabashi, and the explosive closing speed of Road Raging, who could surge past everyone if the pace is fast. Each top contender has a clear selling point, making this a very intriguing race.

Furthermore, the potential for upsets from horses like King Perle, aiming for a comeback after an incident, and the rapidly improving Haneda Brian cannot be ignored. Based on this detailed analysis, we have reached a final conclusion and formulated specific betting strategies. Which horse should be your anchor? What is the best combination to aim for a high payout? Click the link below to see the expert’s final verdict and picks.See the Expert’s Final Verdict Here