November 10, 2025 / Updated: November 10, 2025
The Haiseiko Kinen (S-II), a key graded stakes race for 2-year-old dirt horses, will be held at Ohi Racecourse on November 12, 2025. This crucial race, a stepping stone to the year-end Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun (Jpn-I), has drawn a full field of 16 talented prospects. While Go Buddy, winner of his last graded stakes race, leads the betting alongside Barbarion and Xeros, the field is closely matched. This article provides a thorough analysis of all contenders, exploring the key factors to conquer this challenging, high-pace race.
Key Takeaways
- The Race’s Key is a “High Pace”: With numerous front-runners, a fast and furious pace is expected, likely favoring horses that can close from off the pace.
- Top Contender Go Buddy’s Blind Spot: While his last graded stakes win was impressive, his decisive loss to Barbarion in his debut race is a major concern.
- Barbarion’s Challenge: The speed that overwhelmed Go Buddy is undeniable, but he now faces the risk of getting caught in a fierce battle for the lead.
- Talented Horses Aiming for an Upset: Xeros, who finished a strong 3rd in the Kamakura Kinen despite a troubled trip, and Loyly, with proven stamina over 1700m, could benefit from the race’s dynamics.
- Watch Out for the Dark Horses: Keep an eye on longshots like Pod Festa, who is in excellent training form, and Hubsch, a well-bred colt whose half-brother won the Lord Derby Challenge Trophy.
Haiseiko Kinen (S-II) Race Outlook
The “Haiseiko Kinen (S-II),” a crucial first major test for 2-year-olds aspiring to be future dirt champions, will be held on Wednesday, November 12, 2025, at Ohi Racecourse. Post time is 20:10 for the 1600m (right-handed) dirt contest. This race serves as an official trial for the year-end grand prix, the “Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun (Jpn-I),” and its past winners include future G1/Jpn-I champions. It is an unmissable event for gauging the top contenders in the 2-year-old dirt division.
This year, a full field of 16 talented horses has assembled. According to data analysis, the betting is concentrated on five horses: #10 Go Buddy, winner of the Gold Junior stakes in his last start, followed by #8 Barbarion, #12 Xeros, #4 Loyly, and #1 Dokidoki. However, #6 Chancerade (6th favorite) and #14 King Passion (7th favorite) are close behind, confirming the experts’ view that this is a “closely contested race.” This article will thoroughly analyze this challenging graded stakes race based on recent performance data, training reports, stable comments, and race simulations.
Key Betting Points from Post Position and Pace
Course Analysis: Characteristics of Ohi 1600m (Right-handed)
The 1600m course at Ohi Racecourse features a short distance from the start to the first turn, which gives an advantage to horses in the inner gates for securing a good position. Conversely, horses in the outer gates risk being forced to run wide in the early battle for the lead. In this regard, #1 Dokidoki, who drew the innermost gate, is seen by experts as having secured a perfect post position.
In-depth Analysis: Race Development and Pace Prediction
The single most important factor in this race is the “pace.” In addition to the large 16-horse field, race projection data classifies six horses as “front-runners”: #1 Dokidoki, #3 Prorok, #5 Pod Festa, #6 Chancerade, #8 Barbarion, and #12 Xeros. The conclusion drawn from this lineup is that a “High Pace (H)” is inevitable.
The presence of the following three horses supports this prediction:
- #1 Dokidoki: He led wire-to-wire (“1-1-1”) in the Gold Junior and is certain to push for the lead from the inside gate.
- #8 Barbarion: His only win was a wire-to-wire victory (“1-1”) in his debut. Analysis suggests he failed to show his best when held back in his last race, and the stable has stated, “This time, we’ll let him run his own race.” This indicates a clear intention to take the lead.
- #6 Chancerade: With running positions of “1-1-1” and “1-2-1-1” in his past two races, he is also a natural front-runner.
With these three battling for position into the first turn, it’s hard to imagine the pace will be slow. This high-pace forecast directly impacts betting strategy. A fast pace will be grueling for the front-runners, depleting their stamina and risking them fading in the stretch. Conversely, the horses that will benefit are the “closers” and “deep closers.” Of particular note are #10 Go Buddy, who mastered a closing style by saving ground on the inside before a sharp burst in the stretch last time out, and #4 Loyly, highly regarded for his stamina after winning a 1700m race. Both are analyzed as horses who will truly shine when the front-runners begin to tire.
Top Contender Analysis: The “Big 7”
We will compare the “pros” and “cons” of the top seven horses in the predicted odds, based on training trends, stable comment ratings, final workout reports, and expert data points.
| # | Horse Name | Fav. | Final Workout | Training Trend | Stable Comments | Key Data Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Go Buddy | 1st | Sharp, fluid movement | ↗ (Improving) | ◎ (Top-class potential) | 3 straight wins at 1400m. Closing style last out suggests mile is fine. |
| 8 | Barbarion | 2nd | Improved since last race | → (Steady) | ○ (Wants to run his race) | Dominated Go Buddy in debut. Failed when rated last time. |
| 12 | Xeros | 3rd | Excellent work last week | ↗ (Improving) | ○ (Equipment change) | Was last at 1st turn in last G-race but rallied for 3rd. |
| 4 | Loyly | 4th | Solid work alone | ↗ (Improving) | ◎ (Everything on schedule) | Stamina proven at 1700m. Versatile, runs to competition. |
| 1 | Dokidoki | 5th | Good response | → (Steady) | ○ (Distance no issue) | Narrowly lost to Go Buddy. Inside gate, jockey change are key. |
| 6 | Chancerade | 6th | Maintains good form | → (Steady) | ○ (Won at 1600m) | Easy 3.5 length win at 1600m. Test is handling traffic. |
| 14 | King Passion | 7th | Posted fast time | ↗ (Improving) | ○ (Lots of potential) | Excellent time in 1600m debut. Well-bred, not outclassed. |
#10 Go Buddy (1st Favorite)
Analysis and Evaluation: Currently on a three-race winning streak after winning the Gold Junior stakes. In that race, he saved ground on the inside before out-finishing #1 Dokidoki in the stretch. This performance was highly praised by experts, with the consensus being, “If he can run like that, the mile is no problem.” His condition is also perfect, with his final workout described as “sharp, fluid movement.” The Matoba Naoyuki stable emphasized their confidence, stating, “We’ve been pointing him to this race and have trained him up carefully.”
Concerns: His only loss was in his debut race, where he was soundly beaten by #8 Barbarion by a decisive 0.6 seconds. In a 2-year-old race, that margin is significant, and the head-to-head result cannot be ignored.
#8 Barbarion (2nd Favorite)
Analysis and Evaluation: His biggest selling point is the performance where he dominated #10 Go Buddy in his debut. It’s been asserted that “the speed he showed to beat Go Buddy is top-class,” and his ability is unquestionable. Both stable comments and expert analysis align, making it almost certain he will employ “front-running” or “aggressive forwardly-placed” tactics.
Concerns: A battle for the lead with #1 and #6 is inevitable. It’s unknown if he has the stamina to last 1600m if caught in a high-pace duel. The biggest question is whether the overwhelming speed he showed in his debut will be effective in the heat of a mile race.
#12 Xeros (3rd Favorite)
Analysis and Evaluation: His 3rd place finish in the Kamakura Kinen was more valuable than the result suggests, as he rallied after being pushed wide and dropping to last at the first turn. The stable has announced equipment changes—blinkers and a new bit—to address his temperament. The positive effects have been seen in his training, and his condition is perfect. He has the ability to win if he runs a clean race.
Concerns: The key is whether the equipment changes can correct his temperament issues.
#4 Loyly (4th Favorite)
Analysis and Evaluation: His consistency, finishing 2nd against strong fields since his debut, should not be overlooked. The Morishita Junpei stable commented, “A mile seems to be his ideal distance,” indicating he has been perfectly prepared for this specific race. If the pace up front is intense, his proven stamina from winning at 1700m and his closing running style will be his greatest assets. With top jockey Hiroto Yoshihara aboard, he is a horse to watch.
Concerns: He can be a bit slow to win and may need the race to unfold perfectly for him.
#1 Dokidoki (5th Favorite)
Analysis and Evaluation: Finished 2nd in the Gold Junior, just 0.2 seconds behind Go Buddy, after setting the pace. He has many positives: “He secured the inside gate, and the jockey change to Mikamoto is a big plus.” His pedigree, with Heart’s Cry as his dam’s sire, also suggests the longer distance will be a benefit.
Concerns: For a horse that wants to lead from the inside, the presence of #8 Barbarion and #6 Chancerade is problematic. If he gets drawn into a fierce pace battle, he may weaken in the final stages.
#6 Chancerade (6th Favorite)
Analysis and Evaluation: Undefeated in two starts. His last race was particularly impressive, an effortless 3.5-length victory over the same 1600m course and distance. The stable is confident, stating, “Having experience on this track is a plus.”
Concerns: His two previous races were in small fields. As pointed out, “The key will be how he handles traffic in a large field.” This graded stakes race with 16 runners and an intense pace battle will be his true test.
#14 King Passion (7th Favorite)
Analysis and Evaluation: His winning time of 1:42.8 in his 1600m debut was exceptional, only 0.1 seconds slower than a C1 class race on the same day. He clocked a phenomenal “11.4” for the final furlong in a recent workout, proving his high potential.
Concerns: The stable’s tone is cautious: “He’s a horse with a future, but we’ll see how he measures up at this stage.” He was out-finished by his stablemate Xeros in a workout, suggesting that, for now, Xeros may be higher in the stable’s pecking order.
Full Field Analysis: Dark Horses and Longshots (8th Fav & Below)
Beyond the top seven favorites, there are other horses worth noting based on the data. Here is a brief evaluation of the notable horses with longer odds.
| Gate | # | Horse Name | Fav. | Final Workout | Stable Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Baby Monstre | 11th | Slow final time | ○ (Immature) |
| 2 | 3 | Prorok | 10th | Maintains good form | ○ (Tougher competition) |
| 3 | 5 | Pod Festa | 8th | Kept up with higher class horse | ○ (Needs to run faster) |
| 4 | 7 | Dente Brillante | 9th | Blinkers on | ○ (Versatile style) |
| 5 | 9 | Iries | 14th | Maintains good form | ○ (Has expectations) |
| 6 | 11 | Hubsch | 13th | Trained at farm | △ (Condition is good, but…) |
| 7 | 13 | Euro Heartbeat | 12th | Looked strong | ○ (Improving) |
| 8 | 15 | Kannon Hayate | 16th | Fast time, but on inside | ○ (Showing growth) |
| 8 | 16 | Conceal | 15th | Gradually improving | △ (A step for the future) |
#5 Pod Festa (8th Favorite)
Analysis: His training trend is “↗ (Further Improvement),” indicating he’s in peak condition. His final workout was excellent, “keeping up with a higher-class horse.” He has already won at 1600m, proving his suitability for the distance. His versatility is also praised—”he’s fine even if rated”—making him a prime candidate to upset the favorites.
#7 Dente Brillante (9th Favorite)
Analysis: He scored a major upset in his last start, defeating #8 Barbarion by a nose. The stable is confident in his versatility, stating, “He can run his race regardless of the pace.” However, some analysts question whether the extension to a mile will be a positive, leading to mixed evaluations.
#11 Hubsch (13th Favorite)
Analysis: His pedigree is arguably the best in the field. His half-brother is Trovatore, this year’s Lord Derby Challenge Trophy winner, and his sire is Real Steel, who also produced Forever Young. He has posted fast times while training at an external facility and is described as having “high potential,” making him a fascinating longshot.
Other Evaluations
#2 Baby Monstre has temperament issues, the key for #3 Prorok is handling the step up in class, and #9 Iries faces a tough challenge with many firsts. #15 Kannon Hayate is considered outmatched based on past performance. The stable comments for #13 and #16 are also reserved.
Final Predictions and Conclusion
After analyzing all 16 horses based on the provided data, it’s clear that the top favorites each have distinct strengths and weaknesses, confirming the “closely contested” assessment. This is an extremely difficult race to handicap. Key questions remain: How much weight should be given to the head-to-head result between #10 Go Buddy and #8 Barbarion in their debut? Will the equipment change for #12 Xeros lead to a rebound? And can #4 Loyly, who seems to have the biggest pace advantage, close for the win? The points of analysis are numerous and complex.
See the Final Conclusion Here
For our final selections (◎○▲△) and expert betting picks based on this report’s analysis, please visit the link below.
▼▼ See the Final Picks for Free Here ▼▼
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