Autumn Leaf Stakes 2025
A data-driven deep dive into the Kyoto dirt 1400m race, with expert analysis and recommended bets.
Key Takeaways
Bidya: The Favorite
Central figure with a superior 3rd place finish in the Musashino Stakes (GIII), indicating top-tier ability.
Course Dynamics
The unique turf start and undulating 3rd corner at Kyoto dirt 1400m are critical, favoring tactical speed.
Age Factor
Horses aged 8+ have a poor historical record ([0-0-0-7]), posing a significant challenge for Belder Immel.
Key Contenders Analysis
Bidya
The Undisputed Favorite
◎ FAVORITE
Age: 4yo Colt
Jockey: J. Nishimura
Weight: 58kg
Stable: Ritto – Y. Yahagi
Boasting an elite pedigree and a remarkable 3rd in the Musashino Stakes, Bidya’s class is undeniable. Despite a short turnaround, training reports indicate he’s full of energy. A superior talent in this field, poised to claim victory.
Justin Earth
Verge of Awakening
○ 2ND FAVORITE
Age: 4yo Colt
Jockey: Y. Take
Weight: 57kg
Stable: Ritto – H. Sugiyama
Impressive 2nd place finish last start after a layoff. His pedigree suggests an aptitude for speed-oriented tracks, and his lively training indicates significant improvement is imminent. A major threat with Yutaka Take aboard.
Lights Fall
The Kyoto Specialist
▲ 3RD FAVORITE
Age: 5yo Colt
Jockey: T. Danno
Weight: 58kg
Stable: Ritto – T. Takahashi
A true course specialist returning from a spell. His front-running style is perfectly suited for Kyoto’s flat straight. Strong training suggests he’s fully prepared to fire first-up, especially in colder weather.
Kyoto 1400m Course Dynamics
Turf Start & Positioning
The race begins on turf, giving wider gates an acceleration advantage. Horses with a turf background, like Noble Roger, can leverage this to secure a favorable early position, which is a decisive factor in the race’s outcome.
The 3rd Corner Paradox
A unique uphill/downhill sequence at the 3rd corner forces a high pace. Front-runners are tested, while closers use the downhill slope to build momentum, leading to a condensed field and a sprint finish on the notoriously flat straight.
Full Field Evaluation
◎Favorite○2nd Fav.▲3rd Fav.△Underdog注Mention穴Long Shot消Scratch
▲
1-1 Nishikigi Mitchy: Upset potential from inside gate; distance reduction is a plus.
△
1-2 Advance Pharaoh: Tenacious if he can set his own pace.
消
2-3 Kazu Presto: Recent form is poor, faces tough competition.
◎
2-4 Bidya: Top class, outstanding record, prime condition.
△
3-5 Happy Man: Relying on 3-year-old growth potential.
消
3-6 Total Clarity: Dirt debut is a major uncertainty.
消
4-7 Belder Immel: Age (8) and health concerns are significant barriers.
△
4-8 Noble Roger: Expected to improve, turf start is an advantage.
消
5-9 Continual: Lacks recent form and fitness.
注
5-10 T.M. List: Could perform well if temperament holds up.
穴
6-11 Andes Viento: Blinkers and early speed could cause a surprise.
○
6-12 Justin Earth: Excellent training, strong contender.
▲
7-13 Lights Fall: Course specialist, capable first-up.
消
7-14 Lord Radius: Speed is a major concern.
消
8-15 Lord Frontier: Returning from ailment, likely not at peak fitness.
消
8-16 Star Pesca Ori: Facing a steep class hike.
Training Data Matrix
| Gate | Horse | Course | Time (4F-1F) | Comment | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Nishikigi Mitchy | Miho W | 53.7-11.3 | Improved after this workout | A |
| 2-4 | Bidya | Ritto CW | 53.9-11.9 | Full of energy | S |
| 3-5 | Happy Man | Ritto CW | 53.1-11.2 | Recovering after a break | A |
| 6-12 | Justin Earth | Ritto S | 54.1-12.9 | Lively movement | A+ |
| 7-13 | Lights Fall | Ritto S | 54.0-12.4 | Improved after this workout | A |
| 5-9 | Continual | Ritto CW | 52.6-11.5 | Slow reaction | C |
Race Simulation & Betting Strategy
Pace Simulation
Expect a middle to high pace. Advance Pharaoh (#2) and Andes Viento (#11) will likely contest the lead. This intense early battle could exhaust the front-runners, setting the stage for closers who conserve energy in the mid-pack. Bidya and Justin Earth are perfectly positioned to capitalize on this race dynamic, launching their attacks from the top of the stretch.
Recommended Bets
Trifecta Combination
1st: 4 | 2nd: 12, 13, 8 | 3rd: 1, 2, 5, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13
Quinella & Wide Bets
Anchor: 4 | Opponents: 12, 13, 1, 5, 8
This analysis is for informational purposes only. Please bet responsibly.
Autumn Leaf Stakes 2025 Prediction Report. All rights reserved.
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