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Fukushima Racecourse Analysis: 12 Horses to Watch on Nov 9, 2025

投稿者: ヤナシ社長(旧：生成系競馬予想)

From Solid Bet Gratium to Longshot Shonan Hakuraku

November 9, 2025

A curated selection of 12 horses to watch from the Fukushima races on November 9, 2025, based on professional indices and pedigree data. We disregard past results, analyzing only the facts that point to the future. From the rock-solid Gratium with a 75% Favorite Index to the high-value longshot Shonan Hakuraku, whose popularity and expert rating are wildly divergent, we provide a thorough breakdown of the data-driven “best value” bets.

Article Highlights

  • Solid Bet Favorite: Fukushima 1R Gratium boasts high reliability with a 75% Pro Favorite Index, backed by four key factors: index, condition, stable strategy, and pedigree.
  • High-Value Longshot: Fukushima 11R Shonan Hakuraku shows a “+9 Popularity Gap,” indicating a significant difference between public opinion and professional evaluation, promising high returns.
  • Unique Analysis Method: Our approach ignores past race results, focusing solely on future-predicting facts: “Index,” “Pedigree,” and “Current Condition.”
  • Addressing Information Gaps: For Fukushima 1R, where detailed data is available, we conduct a multi-faceted analysis. For subsequent races with limited data, we strictly focus on quantitative facts like indices and pedigree.

Analysis Premise: Future Prediction Based on Indices and Facts

From a data analyst’s perspective, November 9, 2025, at Fukushima Racecourse is a fascinating day. A close examination of the professional indices reveals a mix of “sure thing” horses with high reliability, such as Gratium in Fukushima 1R with a 75% Favorite Index, and “high-value” horses with a significant gap between their index and odds, like Shonan Hakuraku in Fukushima 11R, who has a “Betting Value” over 300% despite being projected as the 13th favorite.

This report is based on strict data journalism, completely excluding the factor of “past race results.” We focus not on the “past” of race outcomes, but on the “future-indicating” facts: indices, pedigree, and available “current condition” data (training, stable comments).

In our analysis, there is a noticeable “bias” in the provided information. The most valuable inside information—training evaluations and stable comments—was only available in detail for horses in Fukushima 1R (like Gratium)¹. For the other 11 horses from Fukushima 2R onwards, this crucial “current condition” data is missing¹. Therefore, this report bifurcates its analysis methodology. For Fukushima 1R, we integrate high-“quality” internal information (stable/training)¹ with indices. For Fukushima 2R and beyond, to eliminate speculation, we strictly limit our analysis to the “quantitative facts” of professional indices and pedigree data¹.

Fukushima 1R 2-Year-Old Maiden (Dirt 1150m)

#3 Gratium

Projected Popularity1st

Pro Favorite Index75%

Betting Value263%

Popularity Gap0

With a 75% Pro Favorite Index, Gratium is overwhelmingly the top-rated horse among today’s picks. From a professional standpoint, this means the horse is favored in 3 out of 4 scenarios, an extremely high reliability score. Despite being the 1st favorite (Popularity Gap of 0), a Betting Value of 263% indicates that the odds are “unusually good for a top favorite.”

This high index is supported by the only detailed inside information available¹. According to stable comments¹, trainer Kato clearly identified the issue of “showing bad temper at the 3rd and 4th corners” and has explicitly stated a concrete countermeasure: “This time, we will try using cheek pieces.” This is a logical move to unlock the horse’s full potential and is highly commendable.

Furthermore, training data¹ shows a short comment of “Improved condition” and a status arrow of “↗” (upward), confirming a clear improvement. The horse clocked 52.5 seconds in a November 5th hill workout with “plenty left in the tank,” suggesting peak condition.

Pedigree-wise, sire Nadal (Roberto line) imparts power and speed on dirt, while damsire Daiwa Major (P. Sunday Silence line) adds speed¹. The suitability for Fukushima’s short-distance 1150m dirt track is judged to be very high based on its bloodline.

Prediction Point:
This horse aligns perfectly on four positive factors: “Index (75%),” “Condition (Improved ↗),” “Stable’s Strategy (Cheek Pieces),” and “Pedigree (Dirt Aptitude)”¹. The qualitative data (stable/training) and quantitative data (index) are in perfect harmony, making it the ultimate “sure thing” anchor bet.

Fukushima 2R 2-Year-Old Maiden (Turf 1200m)

#5 Dreamers

Projected Popularity7th

Pro Favorite Index18%

Betting Value179%

Popularity Gap+3

The recommendation for this horse is centered on one key metric: a “Popularity Gap of +3.” This signifies that the professional evaluation (projected odds) is three ranks higher than the general popularity (projected 7th), strongly suggesting it may be undervalued. From this race onwards, we have no access to inside information (training/stable comments)¹. Therefore, we treat this “+3” gap itself as a speculation-free “fact.”

On the pedigree front, sire Benbatl (Mr. Prospector line) provides turf speed, while damsire Neo Universe (D. Sunday Silence line) adds power, making it capable of handling the Fukushima 1200m turf course¹.

Prediction Point:
The primary evidence is the “Popularity Gap of +3.” This proves that the professional rating far exceeds public opinion, indicating a high probability of being a “hidden gem” from a data perspective. While its condition is unknown, it offers the potential for a rewarding payout.

Fukushima 3R 3-Year-Olds & Up 1 Win Class (Dirt 1700m)

#8 Stones

Projected Popularity1st

Pro Favorite Index50%

Betting Value205%

A 50% Pro Favorite Index is a highly reliable figure for a 1st favorite (favored in 1 of 2 races). Although its condition is unknown¹, its pedigree is noteworthy. The race is on the Fukushima 1700m dirt track. The pedigree chart¹ shows sire Duramente (Kingmambo line) and damsire Cross Traffic (Mr. Prospector line). Cross Traffic is an American dirt stallion, and this combination suggests high suitability for the tough Fukushima 1700m dirt course.

Prediction Point:
This horse combines a “strong index (50%)” with a “highly suitable pedigree”¹. The American dirt bloodline from damsire Cross Traffic should be a powerful asset on this challenging course. The 205% Betting Value is also attractive, making it a reliable anchor bet.

Fukushima 4R 3-Year-Olds & Up Maiden Hurdle (Turf 2750m)

#9 Hitandroll

Projected Popularity10th

Pro Favorite Index24%

Betting Value324%

Popularity Gap+5

A very interesting data profile. Despite a low projection of 10th favorite, the Pro Favorite Index is an unusually high 24% for a horse in this popularity range. The “Popularity Gap of +5” and “Betting Value of 324%” indicate a “longshot” candidate where public and professional evaluations are severely misaligned. While its condition is unknown¹, the pedigree is sire Bricks and Mortar and damsire King Kamehameha¹. The stamina required for a 2750m hurdle race is well-supported by its bloodline.

Prediction Point:
Today’s “high-payout value” pick. The abnormal figures of “Popularity Gap +5” and “Betting Value 324%” are a strong signal from the data analysis, warning that “this horse will run better than its popularity suggests.” An unmissable horse for those aiming for a big win.

Fukushima 5R 3-Year-Olds & Up Maiden Hurdle (Turf 2750m)

#7 Red Lamanche

Projected Popularity3rd

Pro Favorite Index74%

Betting Value221%

Popularity Gap+2

An astonishing 74% Pro Favorite Index, rivaling Gratium (75%) in Fukushima 1R. It’s rare for a 3rd favorite to record such a high index, indicating that from a professional view, it has “near-certain” ability, yet the public odds are split. This mismatch between “Index (74%)” and “Popularity (3rd)” creates the high value of “Betting Value 221%.” Condition is unknown¹, but the pedigree of sire Lord Kanaloa and damsire Zenno Rob Roy¹ is capable of handling the 2750m stamina test.

Prediction Point:
Evaluated as today’s second “high-reliability” horse. The 74% Pro Favorite Index suggests it stands out in this race. A 3rd favorite projection, compared to its 1st favorite-level index, offers too much value to ignore.

Fukushima 6R 2-Year-Old Newcomer (Dirt 1700m)

#9 Bridge Effect

Projected Popularity2nd

Pro Favorite Index33%

Betting Value219%

Popularity Gap-1

This is a newcomer race (debut), so no past data exists. In such races, pedigree is one of the most crucial facts. This horse’s bloodline¹ consists of sire Mind Your Biscuits (Vice Regent line) and damsire Uncle Mo (Grey Sovereign line). Sire Mind Your Biscuits has high dirt suitability in Japan, and damsire Uncle Mo is a powerful influence in American dirt racing. This combination¹ is a “dirt blue-blood” that can be competitive immediately in a 1700m dirt debut, provided it’s in good condition. The high 33% Pro Favorite Index is likely a testament to this strong pedigree.

Prediction Point:
In a newcomer race, this horse is strong on both available facts (index and pedigree). The sire Mind Your Biscuits and damsire Uncle Mo¹ combination is a perfect match for the 1700m dirt course, making the 33% pro index highly reliable.

Fukushima 7R 3-Year-Olds & Up 1 Win Class (Turf 1200m)

#7 Ho O Booster

Projected Popularity10th

Pro Favorite Index13%

Betting Value215%

Popularity Gap+8

One of today’s biggest “data gap” horses. Despite a low projection of 10th favorite, an astonishing “Popularity Gap of +8” is observed. This means the professional data analysis rates this horse’s ability as equivalent to the “2nd favorite” (10 – 8 = 2), completely different from the public evaluation. Condition is unknown¹, but the pedigree is sire Bricks and Mortar and damsire Daiwa Major, combining power and speed¹.

Prediction Point:
The “Popularity Gap of +8” says it all. This index difference and the 215% Betting Value are the biggest draws for a high-payout bet. This is a case where the professional index clearly refutes public opinion, making it a strong recommendation.

Fukushima 8R 3-Year-Olds & Up 1 Win Class (Turf 2600m)

#8 Peptide Mogami

Projected Popularity5th

Pro Favorite Index20%

Betting Value191%

Popularity Gap+1

A horse with a very interesting contradiction between its pedigree¹ and index. The race is on “Turf 2600m,” but the pedigree chart¹ shows a “dirt x dirt” combination of sire Copano Rickey (dirt champion) and damsire Empire Maker (American dirt). Conventional pedigree theory would suggest low suitability for long-distance turf. However, the Pro Favorite Index is a respectable 20%. This is evidence that the professional analysis has identified turf suitability and stamina in this horse’s individual ability that cannot be measured by its pedigree on paper.

Prediction Point:
A rare case where the index overturns pedigree theory. The 20% Pro Favorite Index is calculated after factoring in conventional pedigree wisdom, and that’s where the value lies.

Fukushima 9R Nihonmatsu Tokubetsu (Turf 1800m)

#4 Win Shergar

Projected Popularity1st

Pro Favorite Index43%

Pro Contender Index70%

Betting Value179%

The index breakdown is distinctive. While the Pro Favorite (win) Index is 43%, the Pro Contender (top 2 finish) Index is an outstandingly high 70%. This means the data suggests “it’s a toss-up for the win, but the chance of finishing outside the top two is extremely low.” Pedigree-wise, sire Kizuna and damsire Conduit (European long-distance bloodline) provide ample stamina and endurance¹. Condition is unknown¹.

Prediction Point:
The data profile strongly suggests “consistency.” Trusting the 70% Pro Contender Index, this horse is evaluated as an optimal choice not for a win bet, but as an anchor for Exacta or Trifecta bets.

Fukushima 10R Kahoku Shimpo Hai (Dirt 1700m)

#12 Miraihenokagi

Projected Popularity2nd

Pro Favorite Index33%

Betting Value228%

Popularity Gap+1

A 33% Pro Favorite Index is sufficient for a top contender, and a 228% Betting Value is very attractive for a 2nd favorite. Its greatest strength is its pedigree, confirmed by multiple sources³. Sire Sinister Minister is a stallion with exceptional suitability for the Fukushima 1700m dirt course, making its course aptitude arguably the best in the field.

(Note: The CSV data¹ lists the sire as Mozu Ascot, but we are using Sinister Minister from web information³ for this race as the correct source.)

Prediction Point:
High course suitability is the basis for this recommendation. The pedigree of sire Sinister Minister³ is a decisive advantage on the Fukushima 1700m dirt track. This powerful pedigree supports the favorable conditions of a 33% Pro Index and 228% Betting Value.

Fukushima 11R Michinoku S (Turf 1200m)

#16 Shonan Hakuraku

Projected Popularity13th

Pro Favorite Index9%

Betting Value324%

Popularity Gap+9

This is today’s top longshot recommended by data analysis. Despite being projected as the 13th favorite, there is a massive gap between professional and public evaluation, with a “Popularity Gap of +9” and “Betting Value of 324%.” The index calculates its ability as equivalent to the “4th favorite” (13 – 9 = 4), making its odds an abnormal undervaluation. Condition is unknown¹, but its pedigree is a world-class combination of sire Deep Impact and damsire Frankel⁴. It’s highly likely the professional index has picked up on this pedigree potential.

Prediction Point:
The ultimate data gap horse. The “Popularity Gap of +9” and “Betting Value of 324%” are the strongest “buy” signals in this race. This is the best chance to bet on a world-class bloodline⁴ at such long odds.

Fukushima 12R 3-Year-Olds & Up 1 Win Class (Turf 1200m)

#9 Statice Bouquet

Projected Popularity13th

Pro Favorite Index11%

Betting Value323%

Popularity Gap+8

A longshot candidate with a data profile very similar to Shonan Hakuraku in Race 11. The “Popularity Gap of +8” and “Betting Value of 323%” show that this horse’s potential is not reflected in its odds at all. The professional evaluation calculates its ability as equivalent to the “5th favorite” (13 – 8 = 5). Its pedigree is packed with American speed, with sire Haynesfield and damsire Practical Joke⁵, making its suitability for the 1200m turf course high.

Prediction Point:
Following Race 11, another longshot strongly recommended by the professional index. A “Popularity Gap of +8” is proof that this horse is severely undervalued. Its American-style speed pedigree⁵ also fits the course, making it ideal for a high-payout bet in the final race.

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