牡馬クラシック三冠の第一関門、皐月賞。古…
Race Preview, Key Horse Analysis, and Dark Horse Selections
This article provides a detailed analysis and prediction for the 2025 Fukushima Kinen (GIII), scheduled to be held on November 22, 2025, at Fukushima Racecourse over 2000 meters on turf. The race is characterized as a challenging handicap race where established horses clash with emerging contenders. The analysis covers course characteristics, historical data, the condition of leading horses, and race development, aiming to provide insights for successful betting.
Event:61st Fukushima Kinen (GIII)
Date:November 22, 2025
Venue:Fukushima Racecourse
Distance:Turf 2000 meters
Type:Handicap Race
The course starts from a pocket position with a relatively long run to the first corner (approx. 505 meters). However, its defining features are the short straight and the spiral curve, which allows horses to maintain speed through corners, favoring those on the inside. The switch to the B course for this meeting is a significant variable, generally strengthening the tendency for inside draws and front-running horses to perform well. Historically, however, frontrunners in the Fukushima Kinen have a stark record of [3 wins, 0 second, 0 third, 8 unplaced] over the past 10 years, indicating they either win decisively or fail completely, highlighting the course’s demanding nature.
Over the past decade, male and gelded horses have dominated the Fukushima Kinen with 9 wins, 8 second places, and 9 third places. Fillies have secured only 1 win, 2 second places, and 1 third place, suggesting that the tough late-autumn track conditions and the power of older male horses are advantageous. However, recent trends show an increase in strong performances by fillies in graded races, with Fairlyeering finishing second last year and Houou Emiis winning the year before. With nearly half of the registered horses being fillies this year, their potential to overturn historical trends due to weight advantages is notable.
Weight: 58.5 kg (top weight)
Considered the benchmark for ability. Despite a 11th-place finish in the Tenno Sho (Autumn), trainer Makura attributed it to a lack of cover. Key challenges are managing his temperament and overcoming the heavy weight. His G1 experience and highest rating suggest potential to win despite the handicap.
Weight: 54 kg
A rapidly ascending contender who won the Kaiji Stakes impressively. Her 54 kg handicap is a significant advantage. Trainer Uehara is confident in her ability to perform well at Fukushima, noting her sustained speed. Her final workout showed a lively performance.
Weight: 56 kg
A former winner of the Kanto Oaks. Her previous race resulted in a 9th-place finish due to a poor start. Trainer Kato believes Fukushima suits her and is aiming for a comeback. If she can utilize her natural front-running ability, Fukushima’s tight course could be ideal.
Weight: 58.5 kg
At 8 years old, he demonstrated his enduring ability with a 3rd-place finish in the Sapporo Kinen. This is his fourth Fukushima Kinen, making him a specialist of the course. His experience and stamina could be advantageous in a tough, attritional race.
Weight: 58.5 kg
Aiming for a comeback after a poor showing in the Mainichi Okan. Trainer Tanaka believes Fukushima suits him. His training has focused on stamina, with longer workouts. His agility on a tight course could lead to a strong performance.
Weight: 54 kg
Considered a prime dark horse candidate. Her trainer emphasizes her proficiency on tight courses, and she has a win at Fukushima. Her 5th-place finish in the Queen Stakes and favorable handicap suggest she could be a major upset contender.
Weight: 56 kg
This 9-year-old gelding shows remarkable form. He has a good record at Fukushima, and if the race unfolds favorably, he has the ability to finish strongly.
Weight: 53 kg (lightest)
A 3-year-old filly with a significant weight advantage. Her performance in the Shuka Sho was considered positive. She could challenge for a top position by leveraging her weight.
The 61st Fukushima Kinen presents a competitive field, with top-weighted horses like Ecolo Waltz and Arata facing challenges from fillies such as Nishino Tiamo and Christmas Parade, who benefit from weight advantages. Based on the comprehensive analysis, Nishino Tiamo is recommended as the main selection. Her explosive speed shown in her last race, excellent training condition, and favorable 54 kg handicap make her a strong contender for navigating the tricky Fukushima course.
Ecolo Waltz is considered the second choice, but his 58.5 kg handicap and the potential for race disruption mean he cannot be considered a certainty. The front-running capabilities of Babbitt and the potential for strong performances from dark horses Pareja and Dandyism suggest a need for a broad betting strategy. The trend of fillies performing well this year is particularly notable, making a betting approach that prioritizes the balance between sex and weight a promising path to success.
| Gate | No. | Horse Name | Sex/Age | Weight | Jockey | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Christmas Parade | F/4 | 56 | Keita Tosaki | Ignore last race’s poor start; natural speed promises a comeback. |
| 1 | 2 | Time to Heaven | C/7 | 56 | Yoshinari Shibata | Lively at 7 years old; potential to emerge if race becomes complicated. |
| 2 | 3 | Kurino Mei | F/3 | 53 | Manabu Sakai | Significant advantage with lightest weight (53kg); Shuka Sho 7th is notable. |
| 2 | 4 | (Outside) England Eyes | F/5 | 54 | Fuma Matsuwaka | Expect improved focus with first-time blinkers. |
| 3 | 5 | Sirius Colt | C/4 | 58.5 | Yoshikatsu Furukawa | Stamina enhanced by strong workout last week; true potential on tight courses. |
| 3 | 6 | Kogane no Sora | F/4 | 56 | Yu Tainai | Recovered from fracture, showing significant growth; improved lightness in training. |
| 4 | 7 | Pareja | F/4 | 54 | Shunsuke Samejima | “Ultimate dark horse”; excels on tight courses and is on an upward trend. |
| 4 | 8 | Ecolo Waltz | C/4 | 58.5 | Bauyrzhan Pu | Top-rated; 58.5kg and race development are key, but ability is superior. |
| 5 | 10 | Nishino Tiamo | F/4 | 54 | Akimasa Tsumura | Main Contender; Continuously improving; weight advantage ensures a strong challenge. |
| 6 | 11 | Reframing | C/7 | 57 | Hiroshi Ishikawa | Horse looks fit but condition is subdued; likely to be observed this time. |
| 6 | 12 | Babbitt | C/8 | 57 | Mikio Miura | Key frontrunner; cannot be underestimated if setting own pace. |
| 7 | 13 | Arata | C/8 | 58.5 | Norihiro Yokoyama | No sign of decline at 8 years old; competitive with experience and stamina. |
| 8 | 15 | Dandyism | G/9 | 56 | Satoru Tomita | Moves like a younger horse; can emerge in a grueling race. |
| 8 | 16 | Rikan Kabur | G/6 | 57 | Hayato Yoshida | Stiffness in movement; not yet at peak condition. |
*Data is based on research materials as of November 2025. Betting is at the bettor’s own risk.
For a more detailed analysis and the final prediction, please refer to the following link:View Final Prediction on netkeiba.com