【2025札幌日経O…
未分類目次 第1部：札幌日経オープン（L）- …
Cheval Bonheur as the Key Horse and Dark Horse Candidates from Data and Pedigree
November 21, 2025
A multi-faceted analysis of the key prediction points for the 2025 Fukushima Broadcasting Prize. We thoroughly profile the top contenders by analyzing the unique course layout of the Fukushima Dirt 1150m, track tendencies, and data from the past 10 years. We delve into the superiority of Cheval Bonheur, considered the top prospect based on pedigree and training evaluations, while also providing information on potential dark horses that could cause an upset, leading you to a winning ticket.
The Fukushima Dirt 1150m is one of the most uniquely shaped courses in the JRA. Understanding its physical characteristics is key to improving prediction accuracy for the Fukushima Broadcasting Prize.
The most significant feature of this course is that the first 150m are on turf. This requires a turf-like burst of speed in a dirt race. Horses in the outer gates have a structural bias, as they can run on the turf longer than those on the inside, giving them an advantage in acceleration. Indeed, historical data shows a significantly higher success rate for outer gates, while the innermost gate 1 has struggled immensely with a record of [1-0-1-9] over the past 10 years.
A long 500-meter straight from the start to the first corner often leads to a fierce battle for position, resulting in an extremely high-paced race. However, the tight turns and short straight make it difficult to catch up from behind. Contrary to typical theory, “pace-setting” and “front-running” styles are overwhelmingly advantageous. It’s safe to say that if a horse isn’t near the front by the 4th corner, it’s unlikely to be in the money.
The Fukushima dirt course in November 2025 will be a condition that demands both power and sustained speed. A firm track will require strength, while a wet track from rain will demand adaptability to a high-speed finish. With multiple horses wanting to take the lead this time, we anticipate a grueling war of attrition.
Analyzing data from past Fukushima Broadcasting Prize races reveals trends for horses that should be downgraded. Let’s use the process of elimination for efficient handicapping.
In terms of age-based performance, the poor results of 7-year-old horses are striking. In the last 10 years, 7-year-olds have a record of [0-0-0-8], never once finishing in the money. This suggests that the decline in explosive power due to aging is fatal in this demanding sprint race. Older horses that fit this profile should be rated down.
As mentioned earlier, while gate 1 performs poorly, there is a clear trend favoring outer gates, with gate 7 having a high number of wins. The pattern of mid-to-outer gate front-runners causing upsets is common, making this a crucial factor in betting strategy.
We will profile the notable horses for the 2025 Fukushima Broadcasting Prize from multiple angles, based on their pedigree, training, and stable comments.
Pedigree: Sired by Ulysses (Galileo line) out of Oasis Mirage. A type whose European bloodline’s power and toughness translate well to Japanese dirt tracks.
Performance Analysis: Ran well for 2nd place in its last race at Nakayama Dirt 1200m. Showed the ability to compete right after moving up in class, and improvement is expected in this second race at this level.
Training Evaluation: Clocked a final furlong of 11.5 seconds on the Miho Woodchip course on Nov 19. Has a solid finishing kick, and its powerful stride is best suited for dirt.
Stable’s Confidence: Trainer Masahiro Kato has made bullish comments, stating, “The last race was as good as a win,” and “He’s in fantastic condition.”
AI Rating: Has earned the top “◎” (Favorite) rating from various AI prediction services, supported by objective data.
Pedigree: A classic dirt pedigree, sired by Le Vent Se Leve out of a dam by Asatis. The Fukushima 1150m, which often becomes a war of attrition, is a welcome stage.
Performance Analysis: Won its last race at Niigata Dirt 1200m with a sharp closing kick. The growth of this 3-year-old filly is remarkable, and she may well break through the class barrier on momentum alone.
Training Evaluation: Her workout on the Miho uphill track on Nov 19 was good, indicating excellent condition.
Stable’s Comments: Trainer Keizo Ito feels confident in her current form, saying, “She’s improving rapidly,” and “With this momentum, she can handle the class jump.”
Pedigree: A strong American pedigree, sired by Speightstown out of a dam by Curlin. Combines speed and power, making her highly suited for the Fukushima 1150m.
Performance Analysis: Has a record-winning performance as a 2-year-old, proving her talent. She also won her last race wire-to-wire and is a tenacious type if she can get the lead.
Training Evaluation: Clocked a good time on the Ritto uphill track on Nov 19, earning an evaluation of “maintaining peak form.” Her condition is stable at a high level.
Course Record: A course specialist so proficient that her stable publicly states, “She loves Fukushima.” She has a high adaptability to the tricky course layout, and her tenacity is her strong suit.
Training Evaluation: In a workout on the Miho uphill track on Nov 19, she confidently finished ahead of her partner. She’s showing great spirit and seems to be in perfect condition.
Pedigree: As a daughter of Lion D’Or, she possesses both power and speed.
The battle for the lead right after the start is what decides the Fukushima Dirt 1150m. With horses like Otome na Shacho from the outer gates pushing for the lead and inside horses resisting, a high pace from the outset is inevitable. The deciding factor will be whether a horse can secure a position right behind the leading group at the 4th corner and overtake them as they tire. We predict that the horse that gets a smooth trip “right behind the pacesetter” or “on the outside of the second group” will be in the most advantageous position.
For this race, the AI predictions and expert opinions are largely in agreement.
Based on the analysis above, here is our final conclusion and recommended betting strategy.
◎ Favorite: Cheval Bonheur
With ability, course suitability, condition, and data all aligned, his reliability as the key horse is unshakable.
○ Contender: Rockabye Baby
The growth and momentum of this 3-year-old filly are real. We rate her as the top challenger to the favorite.
▲ Dark Horse: Otome na Shacho
If the race develops in her favor, she has a good chance of holding the lead to the finish with her inherent speed.
△ Place Candidates: Rouge Azurite, Pearl Front, Third Wind
We’ll include the course specialist, the high-rated AI pick, and the horse with untapped potential as place candidates.
We recommend a betting strategy centered on Cheval Bonheur, branching out to the contender and dark horse.
The “13-2” and “13-3” combinations, in particular, seem worth a larger wager. We recommend making your final decision after considering the horses’ condition in the paddock on race day.
Disclaimer: This article provides horse racing prediction information for reference only and does not guarantee winning bets. Please purchase tickets at your own discretion and risk.