Race Prediction, Wor…
AI’s 75% Win/Place Rate for Fame Elegante: Are There Blind Spots? A Deep Dive into Top Contenders.
The first point of our forecast is how to assess the reliability of Fame Elegante, who has overwhelming support from both experts (projected win odds of 2.4) and AI (projected win odds of 1.8).
Her reliability is supported by multiple data points. Expert evaluations show a concentration of top marks, with several trackmen giving her the “◎” (top choice) symbol. The AI’s assessment is even more definitive: her AI-predicted Win/Place rate (probability of finishing in the top 3) is 75.2%, a dominant first place that more than doubles the second-place Work Song (33.9%). She is also the only horse among the 16 entrants to receive an “A” overall rating.
Her condition appears to be perfect. In her final workout on Wednesday, November 12th, she clocked an excellent time on the Ritto training track “with plenty in hand.” The note that “she had a strong workout last week and took it easy this week” suggests she is already in peak racing form. Furthermore, the comment that “she moved springily and showed more speed than the time suggests” indicates her condition is at its absolute peak.
However, even with all these positive factors, there is a clear “blind spot” that cannot be ignored. The biggest concern is her “awkwardness.” Her trainer, Mr. Nakamura, has pointed to her difficult handling as a challenge, saying, “I hope her awkwardness doesn’t work against her.” This concern is made more concrete by jockey Tannai’s comment after her last race: “Her cornering in the 3rd and 4th turns was not very smooth.”
Fame Elegante is “awkward” and has a habit of “drifting wide.” This race is at Fukushima on the 1150m dirt track, a tight course with sharp turns. And this time, she has drawn gate 1, the innermost position. If she starts slowly, she risks being boxed in. Even if she gets to the front, she will be under constant pressure in the corners. Her ability is unquestionable, but the combination of negative factors—”awkwardness,” “drifting wide,” “innermost gate,” and a “tight course”—must be carefully evaluated.
If we see a weakness in Fame Elegante, who is the top candidate for an upset? The answer lies in Blazer, who has confident comments from her stable and the highest rating among all entrants.
Blazer’s rating is 61.7. This is a clear first place in this field, indicating she has the potential not just to win a 3-win class race, but to compete at the open class level. She also has strong support from experts, and her projected odds of 10.6 offer excellent value.
The biggest reason to recommend this horse is her condition. Assistant trainer Saito has given the ultimate vote of confidence: “Her condition is the best it’s ever been.” This bold statement is backed by training data. In her final workout on Wednesday, November 12th, she showed a sharp turn of foot, especially in the last furlong (11.6 seconds), and was highly praised for her “powerful finishing kick.”
The AI’s “C” rating is likely due to her recent race results. However, her last race, the Sotobo Stakes (5th place), was caused by clear trouble (blocked path), as the jockey commented, “I had plenty of horse left, if only a path had opened up in the straight.” The stable is vowing revenge, saying, “Now it’s just a matter of getting a smooth run.” Additionally, Blazer has proven course suitability, having “won a 2-win class race on this very stage (Fukushima D1150m).” Coming into her favorite course in “best ever” condition, if she can unleash her late speed smoothly, she has a very real chance of overtaking Fame Elegante.
The AI prediction data recommends two horses ranked higher than Blazer. The emergence of these two, Work Song and Shakashakasea, each depends on a clear element of “change.”
The horse rated highly by the AI with the second-highest Win/Place rate of 33.9% is Work Song. His biggest issues are his start and positioning, but his finishing kick is solid. The key point of interest here is the “first-time blinkers” applied by the stable. If this “drastic measure” works and improves his weaknesses at the start and in keeping pace, there is a high probability that his inherent ability and sharp late speed will be fully unleashed.
With an AI-predicted Win/Place rate of 29.8% (3rd), we have Shakashakasea. Although she finished poorly in her last race, she has been rested and reset. The effect is clearly visible in her training, where she is described as having a “strong kick and plenty of propulsion,” earning a “promising” evaluation despite the layoff. Her trainer also attributes her last defeat to “a bad start and getting caught in traffic,” suggesting the conditions for a rebound are “a smooth run on the outside.”
For closers like Blazer and Work Song to have a chance, a fast pace that causes the front-runners to tire is essential. In this race, it’s highly likely that the pace-setting candidates, Meisho Kirigirisu and Meisho Kazemachi, will battle for the lead from their outside gates, which should result in a fast early pace. If that happens, it will set up a perfect scenario for the closers.
For your reference, here is a summary of the AI prediction data for all entrants. Pay close attention to horses with an “A” or “B” AI rating and those ranked highly in the AI-predicted Win/Place rate.
| Horse No. | Horse Name | AI Win/Place % (Rank) | AI Win Odds (Rank) | AI Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fame Elegante | 75.2% (1) | 1.8 (1) | A |
| 2 | Tatsu Diamond | 1.5% (16) | 160.0 (16) | E |
| 3 | Justinian | 2.9% (15) | 87.0 (13) | E |
| 4 | American March | 23.4% (5) | 12.0 (5) | D |
| 5 | Hambergeit | 10.2% (11) | 32.0 (10) | D |
| 6 | Kafuji Eniagon | 17.1% (8) | 27.0 (8) | D |
| 7 | Shakashakasea | 29.8% (3) | 9.0 (2) | C |
| 8 | Blazer | 24.8% (4) | 11.0 (4) | C |
| 9 | Miyuki I Love You | 18.3% (7) | 19.0 (6) | D |
| 10 | Meisho Kazemachi | 6.4% (13) | 68.0 (12) | E |
| 11 | Meisho Kirigirisu | 19.1% (6) | 27.0 (8) | B |
| 12 | Osore | 3.1% (14) | 149.0 (15) | E |
| 13 | Work Song | 33.9% (2) | 9.6 (3) | B |
| 14 | Flap Cygnus | 10.0% (12) | 64.0 (11) | D |
| 15 | Mirabergman | 10.4% (10) | 98.0 (14) | E |
| 16 | Amarna | 13.8% (9) | 22.0 (7) | D |
We have analyzed the race by combining comprehensive AI data analysis with qualitative data such as training, stable comments, and past race feedback. Here are the three core “forecasting points” for this race:
Our final conclusion, based on a thorough review of this data analysis, each horse’s condition, and the day’s track conditions, along with our handpicked “recommended bets,” are available at the link below.See Final Conclusion & Recommended Bets
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