A deep dive into the Equinox Memorial on Nov 9, 2025. We analyze every horse’s final workout, stable comments, and past performance. Is the 3-year-old favorite, Victor Welch, a sure bet? Can contender Elan control the pace? We uncover each horse’s potential and flag the risky favorites based on hard data.
First, let’s review the basic information for this race.
The race narrative is clear. The 3-year-old, No. 12 Victor Welch, is the overwhelming favorite with projected win odds of 1.8. The official race program notes, “This is just a stepping stone,” reflecting the stable’s confidence. The main question is whether this exceptionally talented 3-year-old can leverage his 56kg weight advantage to overcome the experienced older horses (58kg) and treat this 3-Win class race as a mere “stepping stone.” And if this fortress crumbles, which horse has the potential to be the spoiler? We will evaluate each horse’s reliability based on data.
With projected odds of 1.8, jockey Christophe Lemaire aboard, and a 3-year-old’s weight advantage (56kg), Victor Welch is undoubtedly the star of the show. He’s returning from a five-month layoff since his last race in June, but there are no data points to suggest any concern about his condition.
Victor Welch’s final workout data is overwhelmingly positive, standing out among the 12 entrants.
The brief “In perfect condition” is the highest possible praise. The specific analysis—”full of agility” and “excellent muscle tone”—indicates the horse is at his physical and mental peak. The workout itself concludes he is “perfect,” even before considering the stable’s comments.
Trainer Miyata’s comments corroborate the training evaluation. The headline “◎ Victor Welch (Aiming for 4th straight win)” was accompanied by comments containing three crucial points for our prediction.
“After his last race, we planned to run him at Niigata in the summer, but he developed bucked shins (osselets), delaying his return. This time, he returned to the stable early and we’ve taken our time training him. He’s gained weight but is well-toned. He has superior talent for this class, and if the track isn’t bad, a fourth consecutive win is possible.”
Victor Welch’s high rating is reinforced by his past performances. After his last race (June 8), jockey Lemaire commented, “He ran his heart out. He has stamina and showed a great turn of foot to extend in the end. I think he can compete at the next level.” The official race memo for his next start also noted, “Exceptional finishing kick, his ability will translate immediately to a higher class.” Five months ago, Lemaire had already foreseen his success in this 3-Win class. With both stamina and an exceptional kick, the 2000m turf at Tokyo is an ideal stage.
Training (perfect condition), stable (superior talent, 4th win possible), and previous race (exceptional kick)—all official data points for Victor Welch are in complete agreement, painting him as a “sure thing.” The projected odds of 1.8 are backed by this overwhelming data, and his reliability is judged to be extremely high.
The primary horse capable of challenging Victor Welch’s “finishing kick” is No. 10 Elan, the second favorite with projected odds of 5.4. Ridden by Takeshi Yokoyama, he is stepping up in class after winning a 2-Win class race.
Elan’s training condition is also excellent. Despite the short two-week interval, his preparation has been smooth.
The evaluation “maintaining good form” and “in high spirits” suggests he has kept his condition from his previous win and is mentally sharp.
Elan’s stable comments contrast sharply with Victor Welch’s and are the most crucial “prediction point” for forecasting the race’s development.
○ Elan (An honest pace is ideal) – Assistant Tsumagari:
“The Tokyo course seems to suit him, and I don’t think there’s a big gap even in this higher class. He doesn’t have a sharp finishing kick, but he’s strong in a stamina battle, so I hope he can force a steady, honest pace.”
Assistant Tsumagari clearly defines Elan’s winning formula:
This “stamina battle” strategy aligns with jockey Takeshi Yokoyama’s comments from his last race (October 18): “Thanks to the good draw, I was able to lead at my own pace without overdoing it. He was a bit keen on the lead, so I’d like him to relax more. Still, when challenged in the stretch, he dug in and found another gear, showing great grit.” The jockey’s testimony that he was “keen” indicates a strong forward-going nature. The winning strategy is not to restrain this energy in a slow race, but to channel it into a fast or medium “honest pace,” using his “great grit” (i.e., stamina) to wear down the competition.
The scenario for Elan to defeat Victor Welch depends entirely on the “race pace.” Whether Elan (or another front-runner) can turn the race into a grueling “stamina battle” to neutralize Victor Welch’s exceptional finishing kick is the biggest question when constructing your bets.
Supported as the fourth favorite with projected odds of 7.1 is No. 4 Mr. GT. A well-bred son of Duramente, he is popular due to his perceived potential, but recent data contains several serious warnings that undermine this popularity.
First, his final workout evaluation on November 5th is conspicuously negative, among the worst of the 12 runners.
For a popular horse, this is a fatal assessment. In addition to the “unremarkable movement” brief, the analysis points out a mental weakness—”lost focus” (a habit of not concentrating in races or training)—and further suggests his physical preparation is incomplete with “seems a bit short on work.”
The stable staff acknowledges this poor training performance. Assistant Araki’s comments are shocking and confirm the workout analysis.
○ Mr. GT (It’s his mentality) – Assistant Araki:
“He was tired after his last race, but he’s had a good rest since. He seems to be in good shape, but in Wednesday’s paired workout, he gave up in the last furlong. It’s just a mental issue.”
Despite the lip service of “seems to be in good shape,” the fact that “he gave up in the last furlong” is serious. It reveals the possibility that he might “give up” again under pressure in the actual race. The stable concluding it’s “just a mental issue” also shows they haven’t solved this non-physical problem.
This habit of “giving up” is not limited to training. Jockey Tsumura’s comments after his 12th-place finish in his last race (June 15) link directly to this workout: “He just wouldn’t go forward from the third corner. In his previous race, he responded when I urged him on. In the stretch, he practically stopped. He’s a bit inconsistent.” A horse that “wouldn’t go forward” and “practically stopped” in his last race has now “gave up in the last furlong” in his final workout. This consistent data trend suggests Mr. GT may be mentally refusing to run.
This horse represents a direct conflict between “market evaluation (projected odds 7.1)” and “recent official data (training, stable, past race).” Trusting a horse that stopped in his last race and his final workout, based solely on past achievements or pedigree, is an extremely risky choice from a data analysis perspective.
While Victor Welch looks solid, other horses have clear factors for improvement, which become key prediction points.
The third favorite with projected odds of 6.8. Despite a dismal 15th-place finish last time, Trainer Muto provides a clear reason: “Her first time shipping to the Kansai region affected her; she went off her feed.” He adds, “We’ve regrouped, she’s gained significant weight and looks good. I want to re-evaluate her at Tokyo, a course she likes.” The training brief is “Good finish” and the program note says “Last race is an outlier.” With a clear excuse, she needs a second look at her preferred course.
Another horse aiming for a comeback from a 15th-place finish. Assistant Nakata comments, “He was carrying a bit of extra weight last time. His workout atmosphere was good, and I feel he’s improved with a race under his belt.” The training brief “Improved after one race” perfectly matches the stable’s assessment. A typical improvement in the second race after a layoff is expected, and it’s too early to write him off.
Keep an eye on two horses addressing issues beyond raw ability.
These two have had “focus” issues, and the key will be whether the equipment changes and gelding have the desired effect.
As a key “prediction point” for the Equinox Memorial 2025, here is a summary of the latest evaluations for all 12 horses. The “Final Workout Brief” and “Stable Comments” are the most critical data for judging each horse’s condition and the stable’s strategy.
| No. | Horse Name | Final Workout Brief (11/5) | Stable Comments (Team Analysis) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethelfleda | Good finish | Muto: “Last race is an outlier. Re-evaluate at Tokyo, her favorite course.” |
| 2 | Eridanus | Slightly improved | Aoki: “Putting blinkers on for more forward momentum.” |
| 3 | Brandy Rock | Finished ahead with ease | Aoki: “Condition is stable. Can finish strong, depends on the pace.” |
| 4 | Mr. GT | Unremarkable movement | Araki: “(On Wed) he gave up in the last furlong. It’s a mental issue.” |
| 5 | Eikai Mackenro | Worked but unremarkable | Tashiro: “Hoping gelding and blinkers make him run seriously.” |
| 6 | Spark Richard | Full of vigor | Kojima: “Depends on his mood on the day, but have high hopes again.” |
| 7 | Clever Taste | Physique is excellent | Sato: “It’s all about whether he can run his own rhythm.” |
| 8 | Meiner Brix | Worked diligently | Kuroiwa: “If he can settle, he should handle the distance.” |
| 9 | Cosmo Freude | Not much change | Tenma: “I feel some improvement, hope he can move forward.” |
| 10 | Elan | Maintaining good form | Tsumagari: “He’s strong in a stamina battle, so we want a steady pace.” |
| 11 | Mozu Rock ‘n’ Roll | Improved after one race | Nakata: “I feel the improvement from the last race. A turnaround is very possible.” |
| 12 | Victor Welch | In perfect condition | Miyata: “Superior talent; if the track is good, a 4th straight win is possible.” |
In this article, we have analyzed the “Prediction Points” for the Equinox Memorial 2025 in detail, based on official data from race week (training, stable comments) and past race interviews.
For our final betting conclusion and top picks (◎○▲△) based on this detailed analysis, please follow the link below.