A deep dive into the Equinox Memorial on Nov 9, 2025. We analyze every horse’s final workout, stable comments, and past performance. Is the 3-year-old favorite, Victor Welch, a sure bet? Can contender Elan control the pace? We uncover each horse’s potential and flag the risky favorites based on hard data.

Key Takeaways

• The overwhelming favorite, 3-year-old Victor Welch, is rated “in perfect condition” by both training reports and stable comments, making his reliability extremely high based on data.
• Contender Elan‘s path to victory is an “endurance battle.” The key is whether he can create a pace that neutralizes Victor Welch’s explosive finishing kick.
• Popular horse Mr. GT shows mental issues, including a tendency to “give up” in training, making him a dangerous bet according to the data.
• Several horses, like Ethelfleda (course change) and Mozu Rock ‘n’ Roll (second race after a layoff), have the potential to bounce back from poor recent performances.

Equinox Memorial 2025: Race Overview

First, let’s review the basic information for this race.

• Date & Time: Sunday, November 9, 2025
• Racecourse: Tokyo Racecourse, 5th Meet, Day 2
• Race: 10R Equinox Memorial (Commemorative Race for Hall of Fame Induction)
• Post Time: 14:55
• Conditions: 3-year-olds and up, 3-Win Class, Set Weights
• Course: 2000m Turf (B Course, Left-handed)

The race narrative is clear. The 3-year-old, No. 12 Victor Welch, is the overwhelming favorite with projected win odds of 1.8. The official race program notes, “This is just a stepping stone,” reflecting the stable’s confidence. The main question is whether this exceptionally talented 3-year-old can leverage his 56kg weight advantage to overcome the experienced older horses (58kg) and treat this 3-Win class race as a mere “stepping stone.” And if this fortress crumbles, which horse has the potential to be the spoiler? We will evaluate each horse’s reliability based on data.

Core Analysis (1): Victor Welch (3yo Colt) — The Undisputed Favorite

With projected odds of 1.8, jockey Christophe Lemaire aboard, and a 3-year-old’s weight advantage (56kg), Victor Welch is undoubtedly the star of the show. He’s returning from a five-month layoff since his last race in June, but there are no data points to suggest any concern about his condition.

Data Analysis (1): Training — Final Workout on 11/5 (Wed)

Victor Welch’s final workout data is overwhelmingly positive, standing out among the 12 entrants.

• Final Workout Brief: “In perfect condition.”
• Workout Analysis: “Full of agility, finished on terms with ease. Excellent muscle tone. Looks perfect.”

The brief “In perfect condition” is the highest possible praise. The specific analysis—”full of agility” and “excellent muscle tone”—indicates the horse is at his physical and mental peak. The workout itself concludes he is “perfect,” even before considering the stable’s comments.

Data Analysis (2): Stable Comments — Trainer Miyata’s Clear “Victory” Declaration

Trainer Miyata’s comments corroborate the training evaluation. The headline “◎ Victor Welch (Aiming for 4th straight win)” was accompanied by comments containing three crucial points for our prediction.

“After his last race, we planned to run him at Niigata in the summer, but he developed bucked shins (osselets), delaying his return. This time, he returned to the stable early and we’ve taken our time training him. He’s gained weight but is well-toned. He has superior talent for this class, and if the track isn’t bad, a fourth consecutive win is possible.”

• Reason for Layoff Clarified: The five-month break was not due to a chronic issue but a clear reason: “bucked shins,” a common ailment in racehorses that is not a problem once healed.
• Perfect Preparation: The phrases “taken our time training him” and “gained weight but is well-toned” confirm a perfect preparation, consistent with the training data.
• The Only Concern: The only concern raised by the stable is “if the track isn’t bad.” This implies that on a firm track, they are publicly stating he has “superior talent” and a “fourth consecutive win is possible.”

Data Analysis (3): Previous Race — “Exceptional Finishing Kick” Already Proven

Victor Welch’s high rating is reinforced by his past performances. After his last race (June 8), jockey Lemaire commented, “He ran his heart out. He has stamina and showed a great turn of foot to extend in the end. I think he can compete at the next level.” The official race memo for his next start also noted, “Exceptional finishing kick, his ability will translate immediately to a higher class.” Five months ago, Lemaire had already foreseen his success in this 3-Win class. With both stamina and an exceptional kick, the 2000m turf at Tokyo is an ideal stage.

Conclusion

Training (perfect condition), stable (superior talent, 4th win possible), and previous race (exceptional kick)—all official data points for Victor Welch are in complete agreement, painting him as a “sure thing.” The projected odds of 1.8 are backed by this overwhelming data, and his reliability is judged to be extremely high.

Core Analysis (2): Elan (4yo Colt) — The Contrasting “Stamina” Challenger

The primary horse capable of challenging Victor Welch’s “finishing kick” is No. 10 Elan, the second favorite with projected odds of 5.4. Ridden by Takeshi Yokoyama, he is stepping up in class after winning a 2-Win class race.

Data Analysis (1): Training — Maintaining Good Form

Elan’s training condition is also excellent. Despite the short two-week interval, his preparation has been smooth.

• Final Workout Brief: “Maintaining good form.”
• Workout Analysis: “With only two weeks between races, a canter is sufficient. Agile and in high spirits.”

The evaluation “maintaining good form” and “in high spirits” suggests he has kept his condition from his previous win and is mentally sharp.

Data Analysis (2): Stable Comments — A Clear “Game Plan” for Victory

Elan’s stable comments contrast sharply with Victor Welch’s and are the most crucial “prediction point” for forecasting the race’s development.

○ Elan (An honest pace is ideal) – Assistant Tsumagari:
“The Tokyo course seems to suit him, and I don’t think there’s a big gap even in this higher class. He doesn’t have a sharp finishing kick, but he’s strong in a stamina battle, so I hope he can force a steady, honest pace.”

Assistant Tsumagari clearly defines Elan’s winning formula:

• Acknowledged Weakness: He admits “he doesn’t have a sharp finishing kick,” meaning he’s at a disadvantage in a sprint finish from a slow pace.
• Stated Strength: He analyzes that “he’s strong in a stamina battle,” indicating he has a chance if the race becomes a test of endurance.
• Condition for Victory: Therefore, victory hinges on one thing: “if he can force a steady, honest pace.” This is a perfect contrast to Victor Welch’s “exceptional finishing kick.”

Data Analysis (3): Previous Race — Jockey Testifies to His “Grit”

This “stamina battle” strategy aligns with jockey Takeshi Yokoyama’s comments from his last race (October 18): “Thanks to the good draw, I was able to lead at my own pace without overdoing it. He was a bit keen on the lead, so I’d like him to relax more. Still, when challenged in the stretch, he dug in and found another gear, showing great grit.” The jockey’s testimony that he was “keen” indicates a strong forward-going nature. The winning strategy is not to restrain this energy in a slow race, but to channel it into a fast or medium “honest pace,” using his “great grit” (i.e., stamina) to wear down the competition.

Conclusion

The scenario for Elan to defeat Victor Welch depends entirely on the “race pace.” Whether Elan (or another front-runner) can turn the race into a grueling “stamina battle” to neutralize Victor Welch’s exceptional finishing kick is the biggest question when constructing your bets.

Core Analysis (3): Mr. GT (4yo Colt) — A Dangerous Favorite?

Supported as the fourth favorite with projected odds of 7.1 is No. 4 Mr. GT. A well-bred son of Duramente, he is popular due to his perceived potential, but recent data contains several serious warnings that undermine this popularity.

Data Analysis (1): Training — A Rock-Bottom Rating of “Unremarkable” and “Under-trained”

First, his final workout evaluation on November 5th is conspicuously negative, among the worst of the 12 runners.

• Final Workout Brief: “Unremarkable movement.”
• Workout Analysis: “Always mediocre in training. Lost focus again. Seems a bit short on work.”

For a popular horse, this is a fatal assessment. In addition to the “unremarkable movement” brief, the analysis points out a mental weakness—”lost focus” (a habit of not concentrating in races or training)—and further suggests his physical preparation is incomplete with “seems a bit short on work.”

Data Analysis (2): Stable Comments — The Fact He “Gave Up” in a Workout

The stable staff acknowledges this poor training performance. Assistant Araki’s comments are shocking and confirm the workout analysis.

○ Mr. GT (It’s his mentality) – Assistant Araki:
“He was tired after his last race, but he’s had a good rest since. He seems to be in good shape, but in Wednesday’s paired workout, he gave up in the last furlong. It’s just a mental issue.”

Despite the lip service of “seems to be in good shape,” the fact that “he gave up in the last furlong” is serious. It reveals the possibility that he might “give up” again under pressure in the actual race. The stable concluding it’s “just a mental issue” also shows they haven’t solved this non-physical problem.

Data Analysis (3): Previous Race — He “Wouldn’t Go Forward” in the Race Either

This habit of “giving up” is not limited to training. Jockey Tsumura’s comments after his 12th-place finish in his last race (June 15) link directly to this workout: “He just wouldn’t go forward from the third corner. In his previous race, he responded when I urged him on. In the stretch, he practically stopped. He’s a bit inconsistent.” A horse that “wouldn’t go forward” and “practically stopped” in his last race has now “gave up in the last furlong” in his final workout. This consistent data trend suggests Mr. GT may be mentally refusing to run.

Conclusion (Prediction Point)

This horse represents a direct conflict between “market evaluation (projected odds 7.1)” and “recent official data (training, stable, past race).” Trusting a horse that stopped in his last race and his final workout, based solely on past achievements or pedigree, is an extremely risky choice from a data analysis perspective.

Dark Horses to Watch: Turnarounds from Changes in Condition

While Victor Welch looks solid, other horses have clear factors for improvement, which become key prediction points.

No. 1 Ethelfleda (4yo Filly): Aiming for a Rebound at Tokyo

The third favorite with projected odds of 6.8. Despite a dismal 15th-place finish last time, Trainer Muto provides a clear reason: “Her first time shipping to the Kansai region affected her; she went off her feed.” He adds, “We’ve regrouped, she’s gained significant weight and looks good. I want to re-evaluate her at Tokyo, a course she likes.” The training brief is “Good finish” and the program note says “Last race is an outlier.” With a clear excuse, she needs a second look at her preferred course.

No. 11 Mozu Rock ‘n’ Roll (5yo Horse): A Classic “Second Race Improvement”

Another horse aiming for a comeback from a 15th-place finish. Assistant Nakata comments, “He was carrying a bit of extra weight last time. His workout atmosphere was good, and I feel he’s improved with a race under his belt.” The training brief “Improved after one race” perfectly matches the stable’s assessment. A typical improvement in the second race after a layoff is expected, and it’s too early to write him off.

Two Horses with Equipment Changes: A Focus Strategy

Keep an eye on two horses addressing issues beyond raw ability.

• No. 2 Eridanus (5yo Mare): Trainer Aoki: “We want more forward momentum, so we’re putting blinkers on this time.”
• No. 5 Eikai Mackenro (6yo Gelding): Assistant Tashiro: “Hoping the gelding and blinkers will make him run more seriously.”

These two have had “focus” issues, and the key will be whether the equipment changes and gelding have the desired effect.

All Entrants: Final Training & Stable Comments

As a key “prediction point” for the Equinox Memorial 2025, here is a summary of the latest evaluations for all 12 horses. The “Final Workout Brief” and “Stable Comments” are the most critical data for judging each horse’s condition and the stable’s strategy.

Conclusion: Final Summary of Prediction Points

In this article, we have analyzed the “Prediction Points” for the Equinox Memorial 2025 in detail, based on official data from race week (training, stable comments) and past race interviews.

• Point 1: The Reliability of 3-Year-Old Victor Welch
  The biggest point is the condition of No. 12 Victor Welch. Despite returning from a layoff due to bucked shins, his final workout brief was “In perfect condition,” the highest rating. Trainer Miyata also declared, “if the track is good, a 4th straight win is possible.” From a data perspective, he has almost no weaknesses.
• Point 2: Elan Holds the Key to the Pace
  The team behind contender No. 10 Elan has stated their winning strategy: “He doesn’t have a sharp kick,” and it must be a “stamina battle.” To overcome Victor Welch’s “exceptional finishing kick,” the biggest key is whether Elan himself can create a “steady, honest pace” and turn the race into a test of endurance.
• Point 3: Data vs. Odds Conflict
  No. 4 Mr. GT is a popular horse with projected odds of 7.1, yet the data reveals serious mental issues, with a training brief of “unremarkable movement” and a stable comment that he “gave up (in a workout).” He lost in a similar fashion in his last race, making him a risky bet.
• Point 4: Clear “Turnaround” Factors
  Several horses have clear data-backed reasons for potential improvement: No. 1 Ethelfleda (returning to Tokyo after a shipping failure), No. 11 Mozu Rock ‘n’ Roll (second race after a layoff), and No. 2 Eridanus (blinker addition).

Final Prediction Conclusion

For our final betting conclusion and top picks (◎○▲△) based on this detailed analysis, please follow the link below.

See the Final Picks for Equinox Memorial 2025

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