Doei Kinen 2025 Predictions: Is Absolute Champion Bell Pit Unbeatable?

A deep dive into the pinnacle race of Hokkaido Keiba, held on Nov 6, 2025. We analyze all 12 horses based on training data and stable comments, focusing on top contenders Bell Pit, Soldier Field, and Nishiken Bob to find their path to victory.

Key Points of This Article

• Absolute champion Bell Pit is in perfect condition, with the stable declaring him “better than last year.” No weaknesses are apparent in the data.
• The strongest 3-year-old, Soldier Field, aims to dethrone the champion, leveraging a 1kg weight advantage and big-race experience.
• Nishiken Bob‘s intentional “one-week turnaround” schedule is paying off, with his condition “better than his last race,” suggesting a peak performance is imminent.
• We objectively analyze the training, stable comments, and recent performance data for all 12 horses to clarify each one’s chances and challenges.

Doei Kinen 2025 (H1) Prediction Points: Top 3 Contenders According to Data

The three leading contenders highlighted in the title possess clear “buy” signals in the data. We will analyze each horse’s training, stable comments, and recent performance in detail.

Gate 7, No. 10: Bell Pit (5yo Colt) — The Absolute Champion His Stable Declares is “Better Than Last Year”

First, let’s examine the data for the absolute champion, Bell Pit. His profile shows literally no weaknesses.

• Stable Comment Analysis: Trainer Kadokawa gives the highest rating (“◎” – prime favorite), commenting, “Everything is going according to plan,” and “He’s in perfect shape.” Most notably, he states, “I’d say his condition is even better than last year.” This suggests a horse already at the top is still evolving at age five.
• Training Data Analysis: Backing up this confidence, his workout briefing also receives the highest praise: “Flawless condition.”
• Recent Performance Analysis: His record demonstrates absolute dominance in this season’s Hokkaido Keiba. He has won four consecutive graded stakes: the Cosmo Bulk Kinen, Akarenga Kinen, Asahidake Sho, and his last race, the Mizuho Sho, defeating many of today’s rivals in the process.

Overall Analysis: The key takeaway for Bell Pit is that his team is not just aiming to “maintain” his form but is publicly stating he has “improved.” The training data and stable comments align perfectly, leaving no room for doubt. Kadokawa’s comment, “I want him to show his strength without holding back,” suggests he is in such peak form that tactical vulnerabilities are not a concern.

Gate 8, No. 11: Soldier Field (3yo Colt) — The Top 3YO Aims for an Upset with a 1kg Weight Advantage

The most likely challenger to the champion’s throne is the top 3-year-old, Soldier Field. His data shows both “challenge” and “opportunity.”

• Stable Comment Analysis: While acknowledging the challenge, trainer Kawashima expresses clear intent to win: “Bell Pit is strong, but we have a 1kg weight advantage… If we’re challenging, we’re going in to win.” He sees the 56kg he carries, versus 57kg for older horses, as a tangible opportunity.
• Recent Performance Analysis: He was unbeatable on the 3-year-old circuit at Mombetsu, winning the Hokkai Yushun, Okan Sho, and Grand Chariot Cup. Although he finished 10th in the Japan Dirt Derby (Jpn1), the stable views it positively: “We intentionally had him take a forward position… We have no regrets about the loss.” This big-stage experience is seen as fuel for his attempt to defeat Bell Pit.
• Training Data Analysis: Regarding fatigue from the Jpn1 trip, the stable reports, “We’ve worked on a complete overhaul, and he has recovered well.” His workout briefing is rated “stable at a high level,” indicating his growth curve as a 3-year-old may not have peaked yet.

Overall Analysis: The key to evaluating Soldier Field is how one interprets his loss in the Jpn1. The stable’s comments suggest the JDD was an “investment” to gain experience racing forward against national-level competition. He now brings that experience, along with a concrete 1kg weight advantage, to challenge the champion.

Gate 4, No. 4: Nishiken Bob (5yo Colt) — Aggressive “One-Week Turnaround” Strategy Poised for a “Peak Performance”

The third horse to watch is Nishiken Bob, who enters this race on an unconventional schedule. His data reveals a strategy filled with conviction from his team.

• Stable Comment Analysis: Trainer Oguni analyzes the horse’s trait: “He tends not to fully switch on when there’s a gap between races.” As a countermeasure, he explicitly states the reason for the schedule: “This time, we’re intentionally running him on a one-week turnaround.”
• Recent Performance Analysis: In his last race, the “Nadal Premium,” he narrowly defeated the 11-year-old veteran Another Truth. This victory supports the stable’s comment that “the close fight in his last race seems to have fired him up.”
• Training Data Analysis: The success of this strategy is evident in his workout briefing, which notes “his condition is even better than his last race,” signaling further improvement.

Overall Analysis: The biggest factor for Nishiken Bob is his team’s belief that this “intentional one-week turnaround” will bring out his absolute best. A schedule generally considered tough is, for this horse, the optimal solution. His recent win and “better than last race” training evaluation prove its effectiveness, making him a significant threat to the top two contenders.

Full Analysis of All 12 Horses: Training, Stable Comments, & Recent Data

Beyond the top three, the field is packed with talented horses and dark horses who could upset the order depending on the race’s flow. Here is an objective, data-based analysis of every entrant.

Gate 1, No. 1: Another Truth (11yo Gelding) — The Veteran with Divided Opinions

Data Point: The key factor for this horse is the conflicting assessments from his “training” and his “stable.”

• Training & Recent Form: His workout briefing notes “improvement after a prep race.” His Nov 2nd hill climb time (35.9s – 11.9s) was good, earning a “good movement” rating. He ran well in his last race, finishing a close second to Nishiken Bob, indicating his condition is on the rise.
• Stable Comments: However, trainer Tanaka is cautious: “His improvement isn’t as much as I’d hoped,” and “I can’t help but feel his age is a factor.”

Analysis: This contradiction can be interpreted as: “The horse is in better shape than his last race (training data), but it’s not the sharp improvement needed to beat a champion like Bell Pit (stable comments).”

Gate 2, No. 2: History Maker (11yo Colt) — A Veteran Whose Success Hinges on the Race’s Pace

Data Point: The stable has clearly outlined his “race strategy.”

• Stable Comments: Trainer Sasaki believes his best strategy is “to settle and run at his own pace rather than pushing forward.” He notes, “He likes the distance,” and if he can run his race, “a top finish is possible.”
• Recent Performance: In the Grand Chariot Cup (1700m), he settled back and finished just 0.1 seconds behind Soldier Field. Conversely, in the Mizuho Sho (1800m), he pushed forward and faded to 5th.

Analysis: His training has been “thorough.” If he can settle into his own rhythm over the 2000m distance, he could unleash the same late kick he showed three races ago.

Gate 3, No. 3: Haseno Pyro (10yo Colt) — Entering in “Best Condition of the Season”

Data Point: The conflicting data of a “poor recent result” versus the “stable’s confidence.”

• Stable Comments: Trainer Himori is very bullish, stating, “His preparation is perfect,” and “This is his best condition of the season.” He adds, “We’ve significantly increased his workload to get him as fit as possible.”
• Recent Performance: However, he was soundly beaten in the Mizuho Sho, finishing 7th, 2.8 seconds behind Bell Pit.

Analysis: His workout briefing, “long, thorough work,” aligns with the stable’s comments. The question is whether his “best condition of the season” is enough to overcome his last major defeat.

Gate 5, No. 5: Modus Operandi (9yo Colt) — The Data Points to a Tough Race

Data Point: All data suggests he will struggle.

• Stable Comments: Trainer Kurokawa is candid about his struggles: “The main issue is that his good physical condition isn’t translating to race results.”
• Training & Recent Form: His workout was “unremarkable, solo run.” His recent results are poor, finishing last (8th) in the Nadal Premium and 6th in the Drefong Sho.

Analysis: Training, stable comments, and recent form all align on a “tough” outlook. The stable’s hope, “I just want him to give it his all,” reflects his current situation.

Gate 5, No. 6: Passion Cry (4yo Colt) vs. Gate 6, No. 8: Aimez Viver (6yo Colt) — Clash! The “Surging” 4YO vs. The “2000m Specialist” Transfer

Data Point: The direct rivalry between these two horses.

• Recent Performance: In their last two head-to-head races, the result was the same: 1st Passion Cry, 2nd Aimez Viver.
• Passion Cry (4yo): Trainer Yamaguchi praises the 4-year-old’s development: “His recent improvement is remarkable.” His training is also rated “improving further.”
• Aimez Viver (6yo): Despite two consecutive second-place finishes since transferring, trainer Himori is “not pessimistic.” The reason: “He has great stamina and is perfect for 2000 meters.” He believes the longer distance is where this horse will truly shine.

Analysis: Is it “momentum and improvement (Passion Cry)” or “the long-awaited distance increase (Aimez Viver)”? Passion Cry was the clear winner in their last two races (1700m, 1800m), but the key question is whether the tables will turn at 2000m.

Gate 6, No. 7: Dos Hearts (8yo Colt) — Ready for the Long-Awaited “Stamina Battle”

Data Point: A clear preference for “distance.”

• Stable Comments: Trainer Tanaka states, “He’s a classic stayer who wants 2000 meters or more.” He strongly welcomes the longer distance: “We can expect improvement this time.”
• Recent Performance: Three races ago, he ran well to finish 2nd in the 2600m “Sengun Banba Tokubetsu.” However, his last two starts (1800m) resulted in 5th and 6th place finishes.

Analysis: The data suggests his last two losses were due to the “distance being too short.” The move up to 2000m is a clear positive. If the race develops into the “stamina battle” his team desires, he could be a factor.

Gate 7, No. 9: Earth Riser (8yo Gelding) — Stable’s Calm Analysis: “A Top-Five Finish Would Be Good”

Data Point: The stable’s realistic self-assessment.

• Stable Comments: Trainer Tanaka notes, “The longer distance is good since he doesn’t have a sharp turn of foot,” but adds with a calm tone, “He has a tough record in graded stakes… If he can use his consistency to finish in the money, that would be good.”
• Recent Performance: His recent finishes of 5th, 5th, and 3rd align with the stable’s comments—he’s competitive but struggles to win.

Analysis: His workout briefing is “improves in a real race.” Based on the data, a top-three finish is a more realistic goal than a win.

Gate 8, No. 12: Placebo (4yo Gelding) — The “Versatile” Runner Who Came Closest to Bell Pit

Data Point: He holds the distinction of getting closer to Bell Pit than any other horse this season.

• Recent Performance: In the Mizuho Sho, he ran an excellent race to finish 2nd, just 1.5 seconds behind the champion Bell Pit. This performance backs up trainer Yonekawa’s comment: “He showed his ability in his first graded stakes attempt this season.”
• Comparative Analysis: In that same race, Nishiken Bob (4th) was 1.8s behind, History Maker (5th) was 1.9s behind, and Haseno Pyro (7th) was 2.8s behind. Placebo’s 2nd place finish (1.5s gap) was the best performance among them.

Analysis: His training shows “signs of improvement,” and his tactical flexibility—”he can be ridden any way”—is a major asset. The data suggests he is a leading candidate for the second spot behind Bell Pit.

Doei Kinen 2025 Entrants Data Summary: Workout Briefings & Stable Comments

This table summarizes the “Workout Briefing” and “Stable Talk (excerpt)” for all 12 horses. Compare each horse’s condition and their team’s confidence.

Conclusion: Final Predictions for the Doei Kinen

In this article, we have thoroughly analyzed the training data, stable comments, and recent performance records for all 12 entrants in the 68th Doei Kinen (H1). It promises to be a fascinating race, with data pointing to a clash between the absolute champion Bell Pit, whose team declares him “better than last year”; the top 3-year-old Soldier Field, who aims to “go in to win” with a 1kg weight advantage; and the strategically prepared Nishiken Bob, who is in “better than last race” condition and aiming for a “peak performance.”

Next Steps

For our final conclusions and recommended bets based on this objective data, please follow the link below.View Final Doei Kinen 2025 Picks