【おすすめ10選】競馬予想が上手くなりた…
November 21, 2025 / Updated November 21, 2025
The Citrine Stakes, held on November 22, 2025, is a crucial race that will forecast the future of major dirt track competitions. This article provides a thorough analysis of the Kyoto Dirt 1900m course characteristics and track biases. We’ll offer a multi-faceted profile of top contenders, including the impressive Meursault and the promising Mikki Crest, examining their training, pedigree, and suitability, and delve into key points for your betting strategy.
To conquer the Citrine Stakes, understanding the structural characteristics of the Kyoto Dirt 1900m course and its current track biases is an essential prerequisite. This course is governed by unique dynamics that set it apart from typical 1800m dirt races.
The Kyoto Dirt 1900m starts near the entrance of the homestretch, about 100 meters behind the 1800m starting point. This “extra 100m” dramatically alters the race’s development. With a long run to the first corner, the field can settle smoothly even with intense competition for the lead, reducing the need for horses in outside gates to expend extra energy to secure a position. Statistical data shows that extreme advantages or disadvantages based on gate position are less pronounced on this course compared to others. The ideal draw would be a middle-to-outer even-numbered gate that allows for a smooth move to a good position, or an inside gate for a horse with strong early speed.
The most critical strategic point of this course is the overwhelming advantage of pace-setters and front-runners. The dirt track at Kyoto Racecourse features a downhill slope from the third to the fourth corner, allowing horses at the front to build and maintain momentum into the final stretch. Furthermore, the flat homestretch often prevents tiring front-runners from fading, making it physically difficult for closers to catch up. A review of past data reveals that it is extremely rare for a horse positioned 10th or worse at the fourth corner to win. Therefore, the shortest path to a winning ticket in the Citrine Stakes is to focus on horses with the early speed to secure a forward position (generally within the top five) by the time they enter the homestretch.
We will analyze the abilities of each horse in detail, considering their training, pedigree, and past performance. Here, we focus on the most notable contenders, objectively evaluating their strengths and weaknesses.
The horse drawing the most attention in this race is Meursault (4-year-old colt, Ritto, Ikee Stable). His dominant victory in his last race clearly demonstrated his superior ability in this class, making him the natural favorite.
Peak Condition Revealed in Training: He has been clocking impressive times on the woodchip course and recorded a strong 52.2 seconds in his November 19th workout on the Ritto hill course with ease. The “reserve” energy he showed while easily pulling away from his training partner symbolizes his current peak form. His handler commented on his “thin, glossy coat,” indicating his metabolism is at its peak.
Pedigree and Suitability: Sired by Rey de Oro out of an Empire Maker mare, his pedigree combines American speed and power, complementing his suitability for Kyoto’s fast dirt track. His front-running, press-the-pace style is a perfect match for the trends of the Kyoto Dirt 1900m, making his chances of a consecutive win extremely high.
Another key player from the 4-year-old generation is Mikki Crest (4-year-old colt, Ritto, Okubo Stable). His record of 4 wins in 7 starts and never finishing out of the money highlights his consistency. With the characteristic growth curve of a Just a Way progeny, he has improved with each race and is now poised to prove he has reached his peak.
Weight Advantage: He will carry 57kg, giving him a 1kg advantage over his rival Meursault (58kg) and a significant 5kg advantage over the proven Meisho Funjin (62kg). In a 1900m race, this difference is a non-negligible advantage. An aggressive ride from jockey Ryusei Sakai is expected to leverage this weight benefit.
Meisho Funjin (7-year-old horse, Ritto, Nishizono Stable) boasts the highest rating in the field. His record is undeniable, and his ability is top-class. However, the crushing 62kg handicap assigned due to his success is a major concern. This excessive weight risks affecting his start, his response at critical moments, and his finishing stamina. How much he can compensate with his Hokko Tarumae-sired stamina remains to be seen; he will likely need a favorable race flow to succeed.
An intriguing veteran is Mickey Nuchibana (7-year-old horse, Ritto, Takahashi Stable). He posted a blistering time in his workout a week prior and showed sharp acceleration with a final furlong of 11.2 seconds in his final prep, signaling a complete return to form. The jockey change to the skilled Damian Lane, riding on a short-term license, is another major plus. If he can perform at his best, he is fully capable of contending for a top spot.
Beyond the popular favorites, there are several contenders with betting value. Here, we highlight horses with favorable conditions or the potential for a breakout performance.
June Aoniyoshi (5-year-old horse, Ritto, Matsushita Stable) will be equipped with blinkers for the first time. This equipment change could enhance his focus, and if it improves his performance on top of his existing consistency, he has the potential for a dramatic turnaround. His rating is also among the top in the field, making him an interesting choice from an odds perspective.
Although Thermal Soaring (5-year-old mare, Ritto, Fujiwara Stable) lost her last race, her training shows powerful strides, indicating she is in good form. While facing tough male competition, if she can leverage her light 55kg handicap to get a smooth trip, she is fully qualified to cause an upset.
Cool Mirabeau (5-year-old horse, Ritto, Terashima Stable) is a specialist who has shown a strong affinity for the Kyoto course. His rating is comparable to the top contenders, and he should be watched as a potential closer if the pace up front collapses.
We predict the race’s development by combining the characteristics of the Kyoto Dirt 1900m course with the running styles of each horse.
With no clear-cut speed horse, Meisho Funjin is expected to take the lead or sit second, considering his handicap. Meursault will likely mark him closely, with jockey Christophe Lemaire aiming for a prime position. Hagino Sustainable and June Aoniyoshi will also join the leading group, and the formation should settle relatively early.
The first half is likely to be run at a medium pace, with the tempo increasing on the downhill slope from the third corner, leading to a long-drive battle. The key will be Meursault’s move. With a weight advantage, he will likely make an aggressive move to challenge Meisho Funjin early, forcing the rest of the field to expend energy. Horses in the mid-pack will need decisive jockeying to improve their position on their own.
Synthesizing the above analysis, we arrive at our final conclusion for the Citrine Stakes.
Favorite: ◎ Meursault
His training, physical condition, and suitability for the front-runner-biased course are all top-notch. His last win was a sign of him reaching his peak, and the weight difference with rivals works in his favor. A consecutive win is highly probable.
Rival: ○ Mikki Crest
His untapped potential and 57kg handicap are highly rated. With the growth typical of a Just a Way progeny and the skill of jockey Ryusei Sakai, he is a prime candidate to upset Meursault.
Dark Horse: ▲ Mickey Nuchibana
His training indicates a full recovery. The jockey change to Damian Lane shows a strong will to win, and a top finish is almost certain.
Place Contender: △ Meisho Funjin
His ability is undeniable, but the 62kg handicap will likely take its toll. A win may be difficult, but his tenacity makes him a strong candidate for a top-three finish.
Special Mention: ☆ June Aoniyoshi
Expect a turnaround with the first-time blinkers. As he is likely to be overlooked in the betting, he offers excellent value.
| Mark | No. | Horse | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| ◎ | 4 | Meursault | Excellent training, perfect course fit, weight advantage. A solid favorite. |
| ○ | 8 | Mikki Crest | Untapped potential and a 57kg weight advantage. Top upset candidate. |
| ▲ | 2 | Mickey Nuchibana | Turnaround in training. A top contender with jockey Damian Lane. |
| △ | 12 | Meisho Funjin | Top-class but hampered by 62kg. A candidate for 3rd place. |
| ☆ | 10 | June Aoniyoshi | Potential for a surprise with first-time blinkers. |
| △ | 15 | Cool Mirabeau | Kyoto course specialist. Could emerge if the pace is right. |
By combining the factors analyzed in this report, it is possible to construct a betting strategy that balances win probability and return on investment. “Early Speed” and “Weight Difference” are the absolute guiding principles for this race.
For final betting slips, which will account for last-minute track conditions and odds fluctuations, please check the official information on “netkeiba” via the link below.See Final Picks & Pro Bets on netkeiba
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