An in-depth analysis of favorites Jun Blossom, Mapyus, and key contenders for the premier event at Tokyo Racecourse.
The strongest favorite, boasting a blistering final 3 furlongs in 32.8 seconds, marking it as the horse to beat.
Three-year-old filly with proven adaptability to the course and a significant 55kg weight advantage.
The race is predicted to be a speed-focused contest from a slow pace, favoring horses with explosive acceleration.
The 2025 Capital Stakes at Tokyo Racecourse is more than an open allowance race; it’s a critical predictor for next year’s mile graded races. Our analysis prioritizes live data from the past two weeks, including training records and stable comments, to deliver a logical prediction.
Layout: Renowned for reflecting true ability. A long 540m stretch to the third corner minimizes draw influence, while the 525.9m homestretch tests stamina and closing speed.
C Course Bias: The inner rail is moved 6m out, covering worn turf. This often creates an “inside bias” early on. However, the wide track also allows skilled closers on the outside to find better ground and overtake tired frontrunners.
Weather Impact: The forecast is stable, but late autumn turf moisture can change rapidly. A firm track favors speed types, while rain could empower outside closers. On-the-day conditions are crucial.
Predicted Odds: 3.5x
Jockey: Y. Ishikawa
Age: 6yo Colt
Weight: 58kg
Stable: Y. Tomomichi
Analysis: Recorded the fastest close (32.8s) in the G2 Fuji Stakes. Combines Deep Impact’s explosive power with Kurofune’s sustained speed, ideal for Tokyo’s long straight. In perfect condition according to training reports.
Concern: Tendency for slow starts. Risks not reaching the front if the pace holds on the C Course.
Predicted Odds: 4.9x
Jockey: T. Yokoyama
Age: 3yo Filly
Weight: 55kg
Stable: Y. Wada
Analysis: A G3 winner on this course. The lighter 55kg weight is a huge advantage. Showed G1-level acceleration in the NHK Mile Cup. Refreshed and in good condition after a short break.
Concern: Can get keen if the pace slows. Her ability to settle during the race is the key to victory.
Predicted Odds: 5.9x
Jockey: C. Lemaire
Age: 5yo Colt
Weight: 57kg
Stable: H. Sugiyama
Analysis: Extremely consistent, consistently finishing in top positions in Listed races. The “Lemaire Factor” is its biggest asset, as the jockey’s expertise on the Tokyo course could be the difference-maker.
Concern: Tends to be narrowly beaten. Needs the perfect ride to convert a place into a win.
Predicted Odds: 6.4x
Jockey: M. Barzalona
Age: 4yo Colt
Weight: 57kg
Stable: Y. Tomomichi
Analysis: World-class pedigree (son of Maurice). Previous race was a non-representative run due to being blocked. French jockey M. Barzalona’s powerful style could unlock his immense potential.
Concern: Needs to overcome recent frustrations and find a clear path in the stretch.
Improving after a layoff, jockey change to D. Lane is appealing. Trainer expects mental improvement.
Impressive 32.2s closing speed in previous G2 race. Distance reduction to 1600m is a major plus.
Strong front-runner who can dictate the pace. Jockey M. Kawada continues, ensuring consistency.
Previous race hampered by interference. Jockey change to K. Tosaki is a significant AI-rated positive.
| Horse Name | Final Workout | Rating | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stahlwind | 11/26 Ritto Woodchip 51.7-11.9 | S | “Razor-sharp” movement. Excellent form. |
| Jun Blossom | 11/26 Ritto Woodchip 52.7-12.2 | A | Ideal preparation, relaxed on final week. |
| Mapyus | 11/26 Miho W 83.8-11.5 | A | Light and brisk movement. Ready. |
| Shivers | 11/26 Ritto Polytrack 81.2-11.5 | B+ | Movement is light. Recovered well. |
| Lacquer Mada | 11/26 Ritto CW 56.2-11.8 | A | Very lively, full of energy. |
| Grand Carignan | 11/27 Miho W 71.4-11.5 | C | No improvement noted; stiffness. |
With no clear frontrunner, a slow-to-moderate early pace is expected. This sets up a “final three furlong battle” on the long homestretch, favoring horses with explosive closing speed like Jun Blossom, Cefiro, and Mapyus.
AI rates Jun Blossom and Mapyus higher than their odds suggest. Seo is noted as a potential value pick due to the jockey improvement. A comprehensive judgment using all data points is crucial.
| Gate | Horse Name | Sex/Age | Weight | Jockey | Stable | Odds | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Shivers | C, 4yo | 57 | Barzalona | Ritto, Tomomichi | 6.4 | Close in graded races |
| 1-2 | Cefiro | F, 5yo | 55 | Kazuo Yokoyama | Miho, Kikuzawa | 20.6 | Intense finishing speed |
| 2-3 | Suzu Haloom | C, 5yo | 57 | Takashi Fujikoshi | Ritto, Makita | – | Long layoff |
| 2-4 | Mickey Gorgeous | F, 5yo | 55 | D. Lane | Ritto, Yasuda | 10.3 | 1st start after layoff |
| 3-5 | Mapyus | F, 3yo | 55 | Takefumi Yokoyama | Miho, Wada | 4.9 | Best distance, improvement |
| 3-6 | Buena Onda | C, 4yo | 57 | Masahisa Kawada | Ritto, Sugai | 6.2 | Strong even with handicap |
| 4-7 | Conchella | F, 5yo | 55 | Shuu Ishibashi | Ritto, Shimizu | – | Struggled before layoff |
| 4-8 | Matenro Orion | C, 6yo | 57 | Norihiro Yokoyama | Ritto, Kon | 48.5 | Top in time-based stats |
| 5-9 | Jun Blossom | C, 6yo | 58 | Yukito Ishikawa | Ritto, Tomomichi | 3.5 | Previous race high level |
| 5-10 | Shadow Fury | C, 5yo | 57 | C. Lemaire | Ritto, Sugiyama | 5.9 | Consistent good finishes |
| 6-11 | Grand Carignan | C, 5yo | 57 | Genki Maruyama | Miho, Tajima | – | 3 races with double digits |
| 6-12 | Lacquer Mada | C, 5yo | 57 | Mirai Iwata | Ritto, Chida | 26.9 | Distance return |
| 7-13 | Rebellin | C, 5yo | 57 | Kousei Miura | Miho, Kaito | 41.9 | 1 furlong extension slight |
| 7-14 | Houou Prosange | C, 4yo | 57 | Daisuke Sasaki | Ritto, Yahagi | – | Even if leads |
| 7-15 | Daishin Yamato | C, 5yo | 57 | Yutaka Yoshida | Miho, Toda | – | Not far off |
| 8-16 | Seo | C, 5yo | 57 | Keita Tosaki | Ritto, Uemura | 24.0 | Has potential |
| 8-17 | Stahlwind | C, 5yo | 57 | Akihide Tsumura | Ritto, Yahagi | 33.2 | If position is secured |
| 8-18 | Gloria Laus | G, 4yo | 57 | T. Marquand | Ritto, Saito | 23.5 | Reset for mile |
*Predicted odds are as of the data creation time and are subject to change.
This report sincerely hopes to contribute to a wonderful weekend and winning bets for all readers.
Analysis for Capital Stakes 2025