Key Points and Full Field Assessment for the Saga 1800m JRA-Certified Graded Race

This is a prediction article for the “Capella Sho,” a JRA-certified graded race held at Saga Racecourse on November 9, 2025. The biggest key is the 1800m distance, a first for all entrants. This article eliminates speculation from training times and stable comments, focusing solely on objective data—past race performance (form guides) and pedigree—to thoroughly analyze the race’s key points and top contenders.

Key Takeaways

• ▶The 1800m distance, new to all runners, is the biggest factor. Stamina aptitude based on pedigree is crucial.
• ▶Performance in high-level “JRA-Certified Races” is the most reliable indicator of ability.
• ▶With no subjective data, this analysis relies solely on objective facts: form guides and pedigree.
• ▶The top contenders are the incredibly consistent Sakidori Tokken and Prea Legend, who has potential for a stamina awakening.
• ▶Mow Mow Gold is a dark horse to watch, as the extended distance could be a major advantage.

Key Prediction Points for the Capella Sho 2025 [Saga 1800m]

The key to cracking this race can be summarized in the following three “facts.”

Point 1: The “1800m Wall” – An Uncharted Distance for All

A close look at the form guides reveals that the past race experience for all 11 entrants ranges from a minimum of 900m to a maximum of 1400m. Not a single horse has competed in a race longer than 1400m. This clearly indicates that the Capella Sho is not merely an extension of speed. For two-year-olds, the 400m increase from 1400m to 1800m presents an unknown “stamina wall.” Therefore, even horses with excellent past performance risk fading in the final stretch if their pedigree leans towards sprinting. Conversely, a horse that may have been outpaced in previous 1400m races could awaken on the 1800m stage if its bloodline suggests an aptitude for middle distances.

Point 2: The Source of Reliability – Performance in JRA-Certified Races

While this race is a JRA-certified graded race, looking back at the form guides shows several past races also marked as “JRA” certified. These races attract the top two-year-olds in Saga, as they offer a chance to compete at the JRA level and carry higher prize money. Consequently, the finishing order in these “JRA” races serves as a more reliable benchmark for this graded race than wins in other, non-certified races. The horses that have consistently finished in the top two or three in these high-level events are almost exclusively Sakidori Tokken, Prea Legend, and Mow Mow Gold.

Point 3: Eliminating Speculation – Form Guides and Pedigree as the Sole Information Sources

This analysis completely excludes subjective information like training times and stable comments, as they are unavailable. The only reliable sources are the “form guide,” which records past race results, and the “pedigree chart,” which shows genetic background. This pure data analysis is the most direct path to a winning ticket in the Capella Sho.

In-depth Analysis of Top Contenders’ Form Guides

Based on the three points above, we will classify the contenders into four groups and analyze their abilities in detail.

Group A: “The Top Two” — Champions of JRA-Certified Races

These two horses, with victories in the most reliable JRA-certified races, are a step ahead of the competition.2. Sakidori Tokken (Filly, 2yo)

Data Analysis: Career record of [3-2-0-0]. She is the only horse among the 11 entrants who has never finished out of the top two, boasting exceptional consistency.

Race Performance: Won a JRA-certified race three starts back (Sep 15, heavy track). Also won her last start, another JRA-certified race (Oct 13, heavy track), defeating Prea Legend by 0.1 seconds.

Pedigree Analysis: Sired by To the World, from the King Kamehameha line. Her sire excelled at middle distances, so the extension to 1800m is a positive factor.

Analyst’s Take: Her weapon is a versatile forward-running style, making a decisive move from 5th or 6th position. A major collapse is unlikely, making her the most reliable “linchpin” for any betting strategy.11. Prea Legend (Colt, 2yo)

Data Analysis: Career record of [2-1-0-1]. Sakidori Tokken’s biggest rival.

Race Performance: Defeated Sakidori Tokken by 0.2 seconds to win a JRA-certified race three starts back (Aug 17, heavy track). However, he finished 2nd to her by 0.1 seconds in their last encounter.

Pedigree Analysis: His sire, Taisei Legend, was a G1-winning sprinter, which makes the distance extension seem like a negative. However, his damsire is Dance in the Dark, a legendary stayer who won the 3000m Kikuka Sho. The 1800m distance could awaken this horse’s latent stamina.

Analyst’s Take: He was caught by Sakidori Tokken’s late kick after setting the pace in his last race. However, he won from off the pace three starts back. If he reverts to a patient racing style at 1800m, trusting his damsire’s stamina, he has a strong chance to turn the tables on his rival.

Group B: “The Third Contender” — Rising Stars and JRA-Certified Stalwarts

A transfer from Mombetsu and a consistent performer in JRA-certified races pose a threat to the top two.5. Hakuai Duman (Filly, 2yo)

Data Analysis: A transfer from Mombetsu with a rich career record of [3-2-2-2].

Race Performance: Ran well at Mombetsu and has a [1-0-0-1] record since transferring to Saga. She is in form, having won her last race, the “Betel”.

Pedigree Analysis: Sired by American Patriot (a G1 miler) with damsire Fuji Kiseki. The damsire provides stamina, making 1800m a manageable distance.

Analyst’s Take: Lacks experience in JRA-certified races, making a direct comparison with the top two difficult. However, her current form and experience cannot be ignored. She is the top “rising star” capable of challenging the favorites.9. Mow Mow Gold (Colt, 2yo)

Data Analysis: A very consistent record of [2-0-3-1], with three 3rd-place finishes.

Race Performance: Has consistently been in the mix in high-level JRA-certified races, keeping close to the top two. He should not be underestimated.

Pedigree Analysis: His sire, Fine Needle, was a G1 sprinter, but the key is his damsire, Epiphaneia, winner of the Kikuka Sho and Japan Cup. The extension to 1800m could be the “long-awaited” stage where his stamina truly shines.

Analyst’s Take: The most noteworthy “dark horse,” meeting the criteria for both distance aptitude and JRA-certified performance. If the top two focus too much on each other, he could capitalize on his stamina and snatch the victory.

Group C: “Place Contenders” — Impressive In-the-Money Rates

While a win might be difficult, these horses are strong candidates for a top-three finish.4. Ersted (Colt, 2yo)

Data Analysis: Career record of [1-4-2-3]. Despite only one win, he has finished in the money in 7 out of 10 starts, making him a prime “in-the-money” anchor.

Analyst’s Take: Lacks a decisive winning kick but runs competitively. If one of the favorites falters, he is highly likely to secure a top-three spot, making him a perfect addition to combination bets.10. Fukagawa Bugyo (Colt, 2yo)

Data Analysis: Career record of [1-2-2-2]. Similar to Ersted, he is a consistent top finisher.

Analyst’s Take: His 8th-place finish in a JRA-certified race is a concern compared to others. In this tougher graded race, there appears to be a slight ability gap between him and the top five contenders.

Group D: “The Underdogs” — Other Contenders Aiming for an Upset

6. Pickup Luck (Colt, 2yo) [2-0-1-1]Analyst’s Take: Currently on a two-race winning streak, but those wins were in non-certified races against weaker competition. It’s uncertain if he can compete at this graded race level.1. Eiyo Ninigi (Colt, 2yo) [3-1-0-6]Analyst’s Take: An inconsistent type with three wins. A poor performance in his last race suggests a tough battle ahead.3. Matera Blues (Filly, 2yo) [1-0-0-3], 7. Go Go Melody (Filly, 2yo) [2-0-1-3], 8. Nac Queen (Filly, 2yo) [1-0-0-4]Analyst’s Take: These three have poor recent form. A dramatic improvement is needed to contend in a JRA-certified graded race.

Data Comparison Table: A “Fact” Summary of the Top 5 Horses

Here is a comparison table of the key data for the five horses identified as top contenders.

Conclusion: Final Predictions and Betting Slip

This article has analyzed the prediction points for the JRA-certified Capella Sho based solely on the “facts” of form guides and pedigree charts. The most critical point is to assess aptitude for the “uncharted 1800m distance” through pedigree. The second point is to highly rate horses with a proven track record in “JRA-certified races.”

From a data analysis perspective, the race structure revolves around the “top two,” Sakidori Tokken and Prea Legend, as the linchpins, with Mow Mow Gold (potential to awaken with the distance) and the in-form Hakuai Duman as the key challengers.

For the final selections based on this rigorous data analysis and the ultimate “betting slip” to conquer this challenging race, please check the professional’s final verdict from the link below.

Next Steps

See the Pro’s Final Conclusion for the ‘Capella Sho’

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