Breeders’ Cup Mile 2025 Predictions

Notable Speech Seeks Redemption! An In-depth Analysis of Top Contenders & Latest Bookmaker Odds

A comprehensive preview of the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Mile at Del Mar Racetrack. We’re backing European champion Notable Speech to avenge last year’s defeat, and we’ll break down the latest odds from international bookmakers, analyze the top contenders, evaluate the European 3-year-olds and American challengers, and explain how to bet on the race from Japan.

Key Takeaways

• Our top pick is European champion Notable Speech, aiming for redemption after last year’s defeat.
• The main challengers are the closely matched European 3-year-olds, The Lion In Winter and Sahlan.
• International bookmakers unanimously favor Notable Speech as the clear favorite.
• Keep an eye on dark horses with course suitability, including an undefeated American horse at Del Mar and last year’s runner-up.

BC Mile 2025: Final Picks, Entries & Latest Odds

Here are our final predictions based on the available data, alongside the list of contenders and their Morning Line (M/L) odds as published by major international media outlets.

*M/L Odds are based on publications from major international media outlets.

In-depth Analysis of Top Contenders

In a race that brings together the world’s best milers, we analyze the most noteworthy contenders based on international media consensus.

◎ Top Pick: Notable Speech

Our top pick (◎) is Notable Speech, owned by Godolphin and trained by the master Charlie Appleby. His victories in the 2024 2000 Guineas (G1) and Sussex Stakes (G1) establish him as a top-tier talent. Despite being the favorite in last year’s BC Mile, he finished a disappointing third.

Trainer Appleby attributed the loss to “a lack of experience on America’s characteristically tight, small-circumference tracks.” To avenge that defeat, he strategically chose the Woodbine Mile (G1) in Canada—a course with a similar layout to Del Mar—as a prep race. The goal, as the stable stated, was “to remind him of American-style cornering.” He won that race decisively, proving he is in peak form. With prior experience on the stage and a clear plan to overcome past weaknesses, he is perfectly prepared to reclaim his throne.

◯ Strong Contender: The Lion In Winter

Our strong contender (◯) is the 3-year-old The Lion In Winter, from Aidan O’Brien’s stable. While he narrowly lost to Sahlan in the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (G1), finishing third, he followed up with an impressive second-place finish against a stacked field in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (G1). He has proven his ability to consistently compete for the win at the G1 level.

His greatest asset is his versatility and excellent race sense, allowing him to win from the front or by coming from behind. Combined with the expertise of trainer O’Brien, who holds the record for most Breeders’ Cup wins, he has a strong chance of overcoming the older, more experienced horses.

▲ Third Pick: Sahlan

Our third pick (▲) is another European 3-year-old, Sahlan. Trained by Francis-Henri Graffard, he won a thrillingly close race in his last start, the Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (G1), defeating The Lion In Winter and others. With a short career so far, his untapped potential makes him one of the most intriguing horses in the field.

The relative strength of these two 3-year-olds is evident from the razor-thin margin in the Prix du Moulin. They are evenly matched, and a slight change in race dynamics could easily reverse the outcome. Both deserve high consideration.

△ Dark Horse Candidates

For dark horses (△), we highlight Program Trading from top American trainer Chad Brown’s stable, and the 3-year-old Jonquil.

• Program Trading: With a second-place finish in the Coolmore Turf Mile (G1), he has proven G1-level credentials. Horses trained by Chad Brown, a multiple Breeders’ Cup winner, must always be respected.
• Jonquil: This European 3-year-old finished third in the Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland. He possesses the talent to challenge the top favorites.

Other Horses to Watch

• Rhetorical: Currently on a four-race winning streak after capturing the Coolmore Turf Mile (G1). With five wins in six starts, his form is undeniable and his potential is still unknown.
• Johannes: Last year’s BC Mile runner-up. He had a late start to the season due to injury but is following the same prep schedule as last year, winning the City of Hope Mile (G2) for the second consecutive time as he aims for revenge.
• Formidable Man: Known as the “King of Del Mar,” boasting a perfect 6-for-6 record on the Del Mar turf course. However, the biggest concern is that his regular jockey has opted to ride Johannes instead.
• Argine: A 5-year-old mare by Lord Kanaloa from Japan. While she will be ridden by Lanfranco Dettori, international media have noted her lack of a win above the G3 level, making her a question mark against this elite global field.

Analysis of 15 International Bookmakers’ Odds

The odds from international bookmakers are a crucial indicator of the global consensus. Here, we compare the odds from 15 major bookmakers as of late October to analyze the betting trends.

Breeders’ Cup Mile 2025 Odds Comparison

Note: Odds are from late October 2025 and are subject to change.

Odds Trend Analysis

• The Consensus Favorite:
  As the table clearly shows, Notable Speech is the consistent favorite across all bookmakers. His odds are concentrated between 3.0 and 3.5, which aligns with the morning line odds (5-2 = 3.5). His strategic prep schedule and proven ability are highly regarded worldwide.
• The Crowded Second Tier:
  The second tier of contenders is comprised of the European 3-year-olds Sahlan and The Lion In Winter, along with the in-form American horse Rhetorical. The odds for the two European 3-year-olds are particularly close, reflecting their tight finish in the Prix du Moulin.
• Value in the American Contingent:
  The undefeated-at-Del-Mar Formidable Man and last year’s runner-up Johannes are priced in the 9.0 to 13.0 range. Considering their course suitability and past performances, these horses could offer significant betting value.

How to Bet on the BC Mile from Japan

For horse racing fans in Japan, there are two primary methods to place bets on the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

Official Betting via JRA

The Japan Racing Association (JRA) offers official betting on major international races where Japanese horses are competing.

• How to Bet: Betting is available exclusively to members of JRA’s online betting services, “Soku-PAT” or “A-PAT.” Bets cannot be placed at physical racetracks or off-track betting facilities (WINS).
• Important Note: The JRA uses its own pari-mutuel betting system, meaning the odds will differ from the fixed odds offered by the international bookmakers discussed in this article.

Using International Bookmakers

Another option is to use online international bookmakers.

• Legal Status: Using offshore online gambling sites from within Japan may fall into a legal gray area under Japanese law. Users should proceed at their own risk and discretion.
• Choosing a Bookmaker: It is crucial to select a reputable operator licensed by a trustworthy regulatory body, such as those in the United Kingdom or Malta.
• Fixed Odds: The main advantage of bookmakers is “fixed odds.” This means the odds at the time you place your bet are locked in and will be used for your payout, regardless of any subsequent fluctuations.

Conclusion: BC Mile 2025 Prediction Summary

The 2025 Breeders’ Cup Mile is shaping up with a clear favorite. As the bookmaker odds confirm, Notable Speech (◎) stands as the undisputed top contender, poised to avenge last year’s defeat.

His main challengers are the highly competitive and closely matched European 3-year-olds, The Lion In Winter (◯) and Sahlan (▲). For potential upsets, we look to Chad Brown’s Program Trading (△) and the promising 3-year-old Jonquil (△).

This race will determine the world’s top miler. We hope this analysis helps you enjoy the thrilling contest.