We bring you our predictions for the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Del Mar. Top contenders clash, including Cinderella’s Dream, seeking redemption from last year; America’s queen, See Feels Pretty; and French powerhouse Gezola. By comparing and analyzing odds from 15 international bookmakers and dissecting the race dynamics, we provide exclusive, decisive insights you won’t find anywhere else.
Article Highlights
- The 2025 BC Filly & Mare Turf is shaping up to be a wide-open contest, featuring a clash between European powerhouses and America’s reigning queen.
- Last year’s runner-up, Cinderella’s Dream, aims for redemption on her preferred firm turf.
- While international bookmakers show the top four contenders in a tight race, the up-and-coming Diamond Rain offers intriguing value.
- The race pace will likely be dictated by Stellarfy, posing a tactical challenge for the wide-drawn See Feels Pretty.
Contender Analysis: The Stars of the Filly & Mare Turf
Here, we provide a multi-faceted analysis of each top contender, integrating their race records, expert commentary, and the latest information.
Gezola (FR) – The Enigmatic French Classic Winner
A 3-year-old filly trained by the renowned French master Francis-Henri Graffard. The crowning achievement of her career is undoubtedly her victory in the G1 French Oaks (Prix de Diane, approx. 2100m). She further proved her high caliber with a strong second-place finish in the subsequent G1 Prix Vermeille (approx. 2400m).
The biggest concern is her 13th-place finish in her last race, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. However, there are mitigating factors for this defeat: it was a tough race against colts, she had an unfavorable gate position, and it’s believed the race didn’t take too much out of her. It would be premature to downgrade her based on this one performance.
See Feels Pretty (USA) – America’s Reigning Queen
Described as a “consummate professional” by trainer Cherie DeVaux, this 4-year-old filly is the only three-time G1 winner in this year’s field and is aiming for her sixth career G1 victory. Her overall record of 8 wins in 12 starts demonstrates exceptional consistency, with her versatility and race sense being her greatest assets.
However, she faces two significant hurdles. First, the wide draw of post 13 in a 14-horse field. Second, this will be her first attempt at the 1 3/8 mile (approx. 2200m) distance. Nevertheless, her connections have absolute faith in her tactical flexibility.
Cinderella’s Dream (GB) – The Tragic Heroine Seeking Redemption
Owned by Godolphin and trained by Charlie Appleby, who boasts an incredible 41% win rate at the Breeders’ Cup. Her story is one of “unfinished business.” In last year’s race, despite trouble during the run, she mounted a furious late charge to finish a close second, just half a length behind the winner.
The 2025 season has been a year of highs and lows, winning the G1 Falmouth Stakes but also being described as “lacking consistency.” However, Appleby attributes her last two defeats to the soft ground conditions and asserts she will be “a completely different proposition” on Del Mar’s firm turf. “She ticks all the boxes for this race,” he states, his confidence unwavering. This race, likely her last before retirement, will be her “final dance.”
Diamond Rain (GB) – The Rapidly Improving Challenger
Also from the Appleby stable, this Godolphin filly is a secret weapon. With a relatively short career, she is considered to have significant room for improvement. A key indicator of her ability was her last race, the G1 E.P. Taylor Stakes. In her North American debut, she ran a strong second to See Feels Pretty, with one expert suggesting that “a more aggressive ride could have turned the tables.”
Appleby has deliberately bypassed other autumn races to prepare her perfectly for the Breeders’ Cup. This meticulous planning is a testament to the stable’s focus on this race as their primary target.
Other Horses to Watch
- Seize The Fire (GB): Possesses G1-level ability on her best day but can lack consistency. Her second-place finish in the G1 Prix de l’Opéra is a solid credential, and the firm ground at Del Mar will be a welcome factor.
- Stellarfy (USA): Has recently won a G3 with front-running tactics and is likely to dictate the pace. She is a key player in how the race will unfold.
- Beletz (USA): A dark horse to watch. She won the G2 Flower Bowl Stakes at a similar distance and prefers firm ground, making her well-suited to the race conditions.
- Village Voice (USA): Trained by Chad Brown, who has a record four wins in this race. She won her U.S. debut impressively and is expected to improve further.
Global Betting Market Analysis: A Deep Dive into the Odds
Comparing odds from the world’s leading bookmakers reflects the collective wisdom of the market and is a powerful tool for identifying “value bets”—horses with odds higher than their actual chances of winning.
Odds Comparison Table from Major Bookmakers
| Horse | Bet365 | Paddy Power | Betfred | USR (Ref.) | Sky Bet | Average Odds | Implied Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gezola | – | 7.00 | 5.50 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 5.63 | 17.8% |
| See Feels Pretty | – | 5.00 | 6.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.25 | 19.0% |
| Cinderella’s Dream | – | 6.00 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 17.4% |
| Seize The Fire | – | 5.00 | 5.50 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 5.63 | 17.8% |
| Diamond Rain | 7.50 | 9.00 | 7.50 | 7.00 | 8.00 | 7.80 | 12.8% |
| Bedtime Story | – | 17.00 | 15.00 | 13.00 | 15.00 | 15.00 | 6.7% |
| Village Voice | – | 21.00 | 15.00 | 16.00 | 21.00 | 18.25 | 5.5% |
| Beletz | – | 26.00 | 29.00 | 21.00 | 26.00 | 25.50 | 3.9% |
| Stellarfy | – | 17.00 | 17.00 | 31.00 | 21.00 | 21.50 | 4.7% |
| Atsila | – | 21.00 | 26.00 | 21.00 | 21.00 | 22.25 | 4.5% |
| Mission of Joy | – | 34.00 | 26.00 | 31.00 | 34.00 | 31.25 | 3.2% |
| Be Your Best | – | 21.00 | 34.00 | 31.00 | 21.00 | 26.75 | 3.7% |
| Cathedral | – | 23.00 | 29.00 | 31.00 | 23.00 | 26.50 | 3.8% |
| Lakika | – | 41.00 | 51.00 | 31.00 | 41.00 | 41.00 | 2.4% |
Note: Odds are displayed in decimal format based on provided information. Average odds and implied win probability are calculated from these figures.
Analysis of Odds Trends
- A Crowded Top Tier: The most notable point is how close the odds are for the top four contenders: See Feels Pretty, Gezola, Seize The Fire, and Cinderella’s Dream. Their implied win probabilities are all within a narrow range of 17% to 19%, indicating that the market sees this as a wide-open race with no clear favorite.
- The Value of Diamond Rain: Despite experts highlighting her high potential, Diamond Rain’s odds place her a tier below the top four. Her average odds of 7.80 offer clear “value” compared to the top group, who are all in the low 5.00 range.
Tactical Preview and Historical Trends
Pace Prediction
The presence of Stellarfy is key to predicting the race’s pace. She has won recently by setting the pace and is highly likely to go for the lead again. If she sets a fast pace, it will favor closers like Cinderella’s Dream and Diamond Rain, who can conserve energy at the back.
In this pace scenario, the most difficult decisions fall to See Feels Pretty and jockey John Velazquez. From the wide post 13, will they risk going forward and being caught wide, or will they opt to sit back and navigate through traffic? The skill of Velazquez, a three-time winner of this race, will be a major factor in the outcome.
Historical Data and Perspectives
- Master Trainers’ Dominance: It’s no coincidence that trainers Chad Brown (4 wins) and Charlie Appleby (41% BC win rate) have such dominant records in this race.
- Top Jockey Experience: John Velazquez, riding See Feels Pretty, is tied for the most wins by a jockey in this race’s history.
- Proven Prep Races: Historically, horses who perform well in key prep races like the Flower Bowl Stakes (Beletz) and the Prix de l’Opéra (Seize The Fire) tend to run well in the main event.
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf 2025 Final Picks
Based on the detailed analysis in this article, trends from international bookmakers, and the provided prediction scores, we make the following selections:
- ◎ Top Pick (9) Cinderella’s Dream
- ◯ Main Rival (14) Seize The Fire
- ▲ Third Choice (6) Diamond Rain
- △ Dark Horse (11) Bedtime Story
Conclusion: The Final Verdict
This article has provided a thorough breakdown of the contenders and an analysis of the international bookmaker odds. For the expert’s final conclusions, selections, and specific betting strategies based on this information, please follow the link below.See the Expert’s Final Verdict and Specific Bets Here
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