In-depth Analysis of the Mombetsu Graded Race
November 13, 2025
On November 13, 2025, the Blossom Cup (H2), a graded race for 2-year-old fillies, will be held at Mombetsu Racecourse. The top contenders from the Floral Cup and Tourmaline Cup—Blaze Edge, Valentine Cake, and Nijiko—will clash again. This article provides an in-depth analysis of this three-way power struggle and the race’s likely outcome, based solely on workout data and stable comments. We’ll break down the key prediction points for this challenging race where distance aptitude will be the deciding factor.
To make accurate predictions, it’s essential to first understand the basic details of the race.Date & TimeThursday, November 13, 2025, 20:20 Post TimeRacecourse & DistanceMombetsu Racecourse, Race 12 / 1700m Dirt (Right-handed, Outer Loop)ConditionsThoroughbred 2-year-old Open (Fillies) [H2]1st Place Prize5,000,000 JPY
A detailed analysis of the performance data clearly reveals a “Big Three” that stand apart from the rest of the field. Their recent results are intricately linked, and deciphering this power dynamic is the most critical aspect of this prediction.
Analyzing the relationship between these three reveals an interesting fact: their ranking changes depending on the race distance.
Two Races Ago – Floral Cup (Sept 18, 1600m):
The result was (7) Nijiko in 1st, (8) Valentine Cake in 2nd, and (10) Blaze Edge in 4th. At this point, Nijiko held the top spot.
Last Race – Tourmaline Cup (Oct 23, 1700m):
With (7) Nijiko resting, (10) Blaze Edge finished 1st and (8) Valentine Cake was 2nd. The fact that Blaze Edge, who was 4th at 1600m, turned the tables on Valentine Cake, who was 2nd at 1600m, when the distance was extended by 100m is extremely significant.
Therefore, the biggest question for the Blossom Cup (1700m) is whether to trust the 1600m hierarchy (Nijiko > Valentine Cake > Blaze Edge) or to prioritize the 1700m results (Blaze Edge > Valentine Cake). This is the crucial turning point for our prediction.
Recent Performance: Her first-place finish in the Tourmaline Cup (1700m) was highly valuable. She defeated (8) Valentine Cake, the favorite at the time, by 0.1 seconds. However, in the Floral Cup (1600m) two races ago, she finished 4th, clearly behind (7) Nijiko (1st) and (8) Valentine Cake (2nd).
Stable Comments: Regarding this performance shift, trainer Jun Tanaka commented, “It seems a slightly longer distance brings out the best in her.” This statement perfectly aligns with her recent data, showing a dramatic improvement from 4th at 1600m to 1st at 1700m, making it a highly credible remark.
Training Evaluation: In her final workout on Nov 9, she received a high rating of “finished ahead of a strong partner.” Her condition arrow is “↗” (improving), suggesting she’s not just maintaining her winning momentum but may have even improved further. Her path to victory is likely a combination of not just distance aptitude, but also her “ability to learn” and “upward trend in training.” The stable also noted, “She’s gradually learning how to race,” implying she may be a completely different horse from the one who ran in the Floral Cup.
Recent Performance: According to the data, she has consistently been treated as a generational leader, favored as the top pick in both the Floral Cup and Tourmaline Cup. However, she finished 2nd in both races, falling just short of victory. She lost to (7) Nijiko by 0.2 seconds in the Floral Cup and to (10) Blaze Edge by 0.1 seconds in the Tourmaline Cup.
Stable Comments: Trainer Tsunayoshi Kadokawa’s comments are most symbolic of this horse’s prediction puzzle. While confident, stating, “I’m confident in her high ability,” he also reveals a cautious side: “She’s still young both mentally and physically, so conditioning has been a bit of a struggle,” “That was a factor in her last defeat,” and “There are some lingering doubts.”
Training Evaluation: Her final workout brief on Nov 9 was “good movement, finished ahead,” indicating her form isn’t poor. However, the key point is her condition arrow is “→” (static). Compared to the “↗” (improving) of Blaze Edge and Nijiko, this difference is concerning. This is a classic pattern of a “talented but difficult to condition favorite,” suggesting that making her the cornerstone of your bet carries significant risk.
Recent Performance: In the Floral Cup (1600m), despite being the third favorite, she defeated both (8) Valentine Cake (2nd) and (10) Blaze Edge (4th). The fact that she is the only winner of a direct confrontation between all three horses should be highly valued. She then skipped the Tourmaline Cup and returns after a two-month break.
Stable Comments: Regarding the break, trainer Yonekawa asserts, “Going from her last race to this one was the planned rotation, so her preparation has been smooth,” dispelling any concerns. He adds with confidence, “She showed her quality when the distance was extended last time,” and “I have a good feeling that this 1700m will suit her.”
Training Evaluation: Her final workout brief on Nov 10 was “plenty of work.” Her condition arrow, like Blaze Edge’s, is “↗” (improving), indicating she is in top shape despite the layoff. However, there’s an “unseen risk” not present in the data. While (10) Blaze Edge has a proven “record” at 1700m, Nijiko’s aptitude for the distance is based only on the stable’s “expectations.” This will be her first time at 1700m, and getting a smooth trip from gate 7 will be key.
In races for 2-year-old fillies, inexperienced horses can suddenly blossom, leading to upsets. We’ve identified potential spoilers based on stable comments and training data.
Stable Comments: Trainer Sasaki’s comments are as confident, if not more so, than those of the Big Three’s stables. “Her natural talent is really starting to show,” and “Against other fillies, she should be on par or better,” clearly indicating they are aiming for the win.
Data Analysis: However, note that this confidence lacks data to back it up. Her last four races have all been sprints of 1200m or less, making 1700m a complete unknown. Her training brief, “spirited, but…,” acknowledges her talent while hinting at reservations. She is a classic “litmus test” horse, forcing a choice: either trust the stable’s confidence and bet on her unknown distance aptitude, or downgrade her due to a lack of proven results.
Stable Comments: Trainer Saito comments, “The competition is tougher in a graded race, but she has plenty of middle-distance experience, and we can leverage that advantage.”
Data Analysis: This comment is supported by data. Three of her last four races were at 1700m, and she has a win at the distance two starts ago. However, she finished a disappointing 11th in her last race, which the stable attributed to a “loss of focus.” Her final workout brief is “condition improving,” so if her last defeat was mental, she has a real chance to bounce back using her extensive distance experience.
Stable Comments: Trainer Yonekawa’s tone is not one of a contender: “The competition gets a lot tougher this time,” and “It’s only her third start, so I hope this will be a good learning experience for the future.”
Training Evaluation: Her final workout brief was “unremarkable time,” which supports the stable’s cautious comments. The data strongly suggests that, for prediction purposes, it is reasonable to exclude this horse from consideration at this time.
For a final check, here is a list of all 11 runners with their training evaluations and stable comments. The two horses with an “↗” (improving) arrow, (7) Nijiko and (10) Blaze Edge, are particularly noteworthy based on the data.
| Gate | No. | Horse Name | Workout Brief | Condition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kairi Queen | Improves in actual races | → |
| 2 | 2 | Esclass | Slight delay, no concern | → |
| 3 | 3 | Moon Rainbow | Finished ahead, but… | → |
| 4 | 4 | Palace Shanti | Condition stable | → |
| 5 | 5 | Omi Cherry | Spirited, but… | → |
| 6 | 6 | Ayasan Joliene | Moves well in training, but… | → |
| 6 | 7 | Nijiko | Plenty of work | ↗ |
| 7 | 8 | Valentine Cake | Good movement, finished ahead | → |
| 7 | 9 | Rosukakick | Unremarkable time | → |
| 8 | 10 | Blaze Edge | Finished ahead of a strong partner | ↗ |
| 8 | 11 | Parikotopanana | Condition improving | → |
This table is crucial for comparing the horses’ pre-race condition. The “Arrow” visually indicates each horse’s form trajectory (improving or static), enhancing prediction accuracy. The fact that two of the Big Three are “↗” (improving) while one favorite is “→” (static) is a critical point for betting strategy.
| No. | Horse Name | Rating | Comment Summary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kairi Queen | ○ | Good condition. Could be a factor if the race unfolds in her favor. |
| 2 | Esclass | ○ | A graded race is another story. Needs to improve her time. |
| 3 | Moon Rainbow | ○ | The extra distance is a plus. The level of competition is the challenge. |
| 4 | Palace Shanti | △ | Just broke her maiden. A challenge with an eye on the future. |
| 5 | Omi Cherry | ○ | Her talent is surfacing. Should be on par or better against fillies. |
| 6 | Ayasan Joliene | ○ | First time at this distance, but her burst of speed two races ago was promising. |
| 7 | Nijiko | ◎ | Feels like 1700m will suit her. On schedule with a planned rotation. |
| 8 | Valentine Cake | ◎ | Confident in her ability, but still young mentally and physically, so some concern. |
| 9 | Rosukakick | △ | Has potential but faces strong rivals. Only her third start, a learning experience. |
| 10 | Blaze Edge | ◎ | Learning how to race. Has a chance if she can repeat her last performance. |
| 11 | Parikotopanana | ○ | Lost focus last time. Has plenty of middle-distance experience. |
This table summarizes each stable’s “true feelings” and “expectations.” Cautious comments, like the “△” rating for (4) Palace Shanti or the “learning experience” for (9) Rosukakick, provide strong grounds for exclusion. Conversely, a confident comment like “on par or better” for (5) Omi Cherry makes her a longshot worth watching.
To summarize the key points for the Blossom Cup (H2), the data clearly indicates a “Big Three” battle. There’s (10) Blaze Edge, on an upward trend with a proven “record” at 1700m and an “improving (↗)” form. There’s (7) Nijiko, the 1600m “champion” with a perfect rotation and also “improving (↗)” form. And then there’s (8) Valentine Cake, who possesses undeniable “ability” but is hampered by stable “concerns” and a “static (→)” training evaluation. How will you weigh the power dynamics of these three, and how will you factor in the confident dark horse, (5) Omi Cherry? For our final picks and betting slip based on this analysis, please check the expert site below.