A deep dive into the “Beaver Moon Dash (B3)” at Funabashi Racecourse on Nov 5, 2025. We analyze key contenders like JRA transfer Dona Pondo and pacesetter Wagamama Body using objective data to uncover race dynamics, horse evaluations, and potential dark horses.
Key Points of This Article
- The key to the race’s development is held by #6 Wagamama Body, who is highly likely to take a solo lead according to the data.
- #7 Dona Pondo, in its first race after transferring from JRA, has superior ability, but the stable has expressed concerns about adapting to the sand and pace.
- #2 Hello My Lovely not only performed well in its last race but is also in excellent form, with training data showing “light and agile movement.”
- #3 Ultra World’s stable shows a strong competitive spirit, stating they are “targeting this race,” and has indicated aptitude for the 1000m distance.
- Projected as the 7th favorite, #11 Kriegerin is a notable dark horse candidate with a past victory on this course and at this distance.
Race Development and Pace Prediction Points
In the “Beaver Moon Dash,” a lightning-fast 1000m dirt sprint held as the 10th race at Funabashi Racecourse on November 5, 2025, the race development and pace are the most critical factors for prediction. The analysis in this article is based on objective data provided by netkeiba.com and Keiba Book.
The Key Revealed by Data: Will #6 Wagamama Body Dominate?
Data analysis classifies #6 Wagamama Body (9-year-old mare, Hiroshi Yanai stable) as the sole “front-runner” candidate, making it highly probable she will seize control of the race. Her record of taking the lead in all of her last four races and passing the corner at “1-1” demonstrates her established strategy. Trainer Hiroshi Yanai commented, “If she can run her own race, there’s not much difference,” which aligns with “her own race” meaning taking the lead. If the pack doesn’t apply pressure, the likelihood of her holding on for a “front-runner’s victory” increases, making this the biggest tactical point of the race.
Analysis of the Front-Runner Group’s Positioning
With Wagamama Body’s solo lead looking likely, the pace of the race will be dictated by the movements of the chasing pack. Data classifies the following four horses in the “pacer” group:
- #2 Hello My Lovely
- #3 Ultra World
- #7 Dona Pondo
- #11 Kriegerin
Among these, #2 Hello My Lovely, who ran aggressively in her last race, and #7 Dona Pondo, with experience pacing in fast JRA races, are the most likely to pressure Wagamama Body. Depending on their moves, the pace could quicken, creating opportunities for closers like #5 He Sama Win and #9 Take Note.
Objective Data Evaluation of Top Contenders
Here, we analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the top contenders based on projected odds, extracting insights purely from the data.
[7] Dona Pondo – Ability in First Race After JRA Transfer
Strengths: Her record of running the Kokura 1000m dirt in 0:59.1 in a JRA 1-win class race suggests superior speed for the B3 class. Her training since the transfer has been proceeding smoothly.
Concerns: Trainer Takahiro Inamasu’s comment, “We’ll see if our sand and pace suit her,” is a clear concern, indicating the stable views her adaptation to Funabashi’s deep sand and the unique local pace as an unknown. This suggests that placing absolute trust in her carries risk.
[2] Hello My Lovely – Strong Last Race & “Light Movement” in Training
Strengths: Finished a strong 2nd in her last race (Kawasaki 900m) after a nearly six-month layoff. Training data includes a high evaluation of “light and agile movement,” suggesting she will be in even better condition after one race back. The stable’s comments also praise her last performance, providing a solid set of positive data.
Concerns: No significant concerns are apparent from the data, but the step up in competition will be key.
[6] Wagamama Body – Tactical Advantage & C1 Winning Streak
Strengths: She has the significant tactical advantage of a likely uncontested lead. Currently on a two-race winning streak in the C1 class, she has momentum, and the stable comments that she is “maintaining good form.”
Concerns: This is her first race after being promoted from the C1 class, so her ability to handle the B3 class pace is a question. Additionally, her final workout was rated as “light work,” which lacks the strong endorsement seen for her stablemate, Hello My Lovely.
[3] Ultra World – Distance Extension from 800m & Stable’s Strategy
Strengths: Promoted after winning her last 800m race. Trainer Yoshikazu Kanuma’s comments, “We’ve been targeting this race” and “This distance (1000m) suits him,” show clear competitive intent and confidence in his distance aptitude. His training is also highly rated as “maintaining good spirits.”
Concerns: Like Wagamama Body, this is a promotion race from C1, and the B3 class barrier will be a test.
Other Horses of Interest (Dark Horse Candidates)
We highlight horses outside the top favorites that have noteworthy data points.
[11] Kriegerin – Funabashi 1000m Victory Record & Finishing Kick
Strengths: She has a victory on this exact “Funabashi 1000m dirt” course four races ago, a rare strength in this field. Her finishing kick in her last race, covering the final 3 furlongs in 36.4 seconds, indicates she could benefit if the front-runners set a blistering pace.
[1] Hakuai Gojiro – Re-evaluation of the Urawa 800m Group
Strengths: Running again after just 6 days. She ran well in her last Urawa 800m race, finishing 5th, only 0.3 seconds behind the winner. Trainer Tamotsu Yokoyama is hopeful for improvement at her former home track, commenting, “It would be nice if she can run a competitive race at her old stomping grounds.”
[10] Shadow Duchess – Data Suggests “Pass”
Concerns: The comment from the Hiroshi Yanai stable is extremely negative: “She’s just not showing much spark. She’ll need a few more races to improve.” The objective data clearly indicates she is not in top form, making it reasonable to pass on her this time.
Prediction Points Summary and Final Conclusion
In this article, we analyzed the “Beaver Moon Dash (B3) Prediction Points” based on objective data.
- Pace: #6 Wagamama Body is likely to take a solo lead and control the pace.
- Top Pick 1: #7 Dona Pondo shines with her JRA record, but there are concerns about her adaptation to the track and pace.
- Top Pick 2: #2 Hello My Lovely shows excellent form based on her last race and training data.
- Promoted Group: #3 Ultra World is appealing due to the stable’s competitive spirit and confidence in his distance suitability.
- Dark Horse: #11 Kriegerin stands out as the only horse with a victory on this specific course.
Next Steps
Based on this analysis, the final predictions and markings (◎○▲△) from our expert journalist can be found at the link below.See the Expert’s Final Conclusion
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