目次 価値を見抜く技術 – …
November 21, 2025 / Last updated: November 21, 2025
A comprehensive analysis of the November 2025 Fukushima Kinen (GIII) and Citrine Stakes. This article evaluates top contenders, focusing on the seemingly ageless 8-year-old Arata and the rising dirt track star Murceau. We’ll examine training data, course suitability, and pedigree to provide logical, data-driven predictions for the weekend’s races, factoring in handicap weights and track bias.
The Fukushima Kinen, held on the tricky 2000-meter turf course at Fukushima Racecourse, demands more than just raw speed. Cornering ability and tactical positioning are crucial factors that often decide the outcome.
The Fukushima 2000m course features a spiral curve, which increases centrifugal force in the turns. Statistically, front-runners (“nige”) and horses racing on the pace (“senko”) have a distinct advantage. This “front-runner’s bias” tends to hold even as the inner turf wears down late in the meeting. Conversely, closers who swing wide on the final turn lose significant ground and are generally at a disadvantage. Horses that can secure a good position from an inside draw or weave through traffic are favored.
The pace of this race will be dictated by the front-runner, Babbitt. He is almost certain to take the lead, and our analysis suggests a moderate to fast pace with a long, sustained run for home. This scenario would favor horses with both stamina and agility, such as Arata and Sirius Colt.
The Citrine Stakes is contested under the unique conditions of the Kyoto 1900-meter dirt course. It is a true test of dirt ability and stamina.
According to the latest reports, the Kyoto dirt course is dry and requires significant power. On such a track, the “front-runner’s bias” becomes even more pronounced, making it physically difficult for closers to make up ground from the back. Securing a position within the top five by the fourth corner is key to victory.
Although this is his first start since moving up in class, he is a tough type who excels in grueling races and has plenty of stamina. His training has been excellent, and there are no concerns about his condition. Expect him to track Murceau and put up a stubborn fight.
His GIII record is among the best in this field, but the 59kg impost is his biggest concern. On a power-sapping dirt track, this 1kg difference can be significant. However, if the powerful jockey D. Lane can extract his full potential, he is a certain contender.
While the 62kg weight is severe, he is the one who will dictate the pace from the front. His presence could inadvertently create a perfect race setup for Murceau to follow.
The reason Arata maintains such high performance at age eight can be attributed to his stable’s careful race selection and management, as well as his pedigree (by Heart’s Cry), which is known for producing late-maturing horses. Rather than worrying about his age, we should focus on his current excellent form.
A dry, power-intensive dirt track increases the energy required for horses to close from behind. For a horse like Murceau, who likes to lead and press his advantage, this track condition, which saps the energy of his rivals, is a significant factor that further boosts his chances of winning.
The top pick is Arata. His GII record, outstanding training, and high course suitability outweigh any concerns about his age or weight. The main rival is Sirius Colt, who benefits from the course change. As a dark horse with a shot if he gets a clean start, we recommend Christmas Parade.
Murceau is the undisputed centerpiece. Course suitability, jockey, training, and track bias—all factors align perfectly. His main challenger is the consistent Hagino Sustainable. While the 59kg weight is a question mark, Mickey Nuchibana is also a strong candidate for a top-three finish.
| Horse | Race | Rating | Final Workout (Total-1F) | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arata | Fukushima Kinen | 65.5 | 83.2 – 11.7 (Miho W/Strong) | GII 3rd place record, excellent Fukushima suitability. |
| Sirius Colt | Fukushima Kinen | 65.7 | 84.8 – 11.4 (Miho W/Canter) | Thrives in stamina duels over pure speed. |
| Christmas Parade | Fukushima Kinen | 64.6 | 52.5 – 12.5 (Miho Hill/Canter) | Personal best in training, peak physical condition. |
| Murceau | Citrine S | 66.2 | 52.2 – 12.3 (Ritto Hill/Canter) | Exceptional workout time, specialist at Kyoto 1900m. |
| Mickey Nuchibana | Citrine S | 70.8 | 88.9 – 11.2 (Ritto B/Canter) | Top record in the field, but 59kg weight is a concern. |
Arata (King Kamehameha x Heart’s Cry) combines strength with late-blooming stamina, a pedigree that supports his success at an older age. Christmas Parade (Kitasan Black x Blame) possesses both stamina and power, making her well-suited to the often grueling nature of the Fukushima Kinen.
Murceau (Rey de Oro) has a versatile pedigree that excels on both turf and dirt, which could be an advantage on the speed-sustaining Kyoto 1900m dirt course. In contrast, Mickey Nuchibana (Danon Legend) has a pedigree that raises some stamina concerns over this distance.
Cool Mirabo (Drefong) thrives on power-intensive tracks, and the Sunday Silence in his dam’s line provides an extra burst of speed. Based on his last race and pedigree, he is highly suited to the Kyoto 1900m dirt and has the potential to cause an upset.
There is a qualitative difference in workouts described as “cantering” (umanari). Murceau’s 52.2-second time on the uphill track, done with ease, indicates exceptional cardiovascular capacity with plenty left in the tank. In other cases, a “canter” might suggest a horse is still in the process of reaching peak fitness. Furthermore, the fact that an older horse like Arata is being pushed hard in his final workout is a clear sign that the stable is aiming for a win.
For final picks, betting strategies, and more detailed information, please check the official profile below.
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