Anatomy of an Anomaly: A Structural Analysis of the 2025 Tenno Sho (Autumn) and its Record-Breaking Sprint Finish

November 3, 2025

The Tenno Sho (Autumn) on November 2, 2025, was a peculiar race defined by a contradiction: a modest winning time paired with a record-breaking final 3-furlong sprint of 32.9 seconds. This article provides a detailed, data-driven analysis of how this paradoxical race resulted from a convergence of three key factors: a standard track condition, jockey Yutaka Take’s masterful pace control, and the strategic patience of the trailing pack.

Key Takeaways

• The 2025 Tenno Sho (Autumn) produced contradictory results: a winning time of 1:58.6 and a final 3-furlong time of 32.9 seconds.
• This was caused by a combination of three factors: a standard fast track, an intentionally slow pace set by jockey Yutaka Take, and the strategic patience of the trailing pack.
• An unusually slow first 1000m at 62.0 seconds triggered an explosive sprint finish in the race’s final stages.
• Fourth-place finisher Shirankedo recorded a blistering final 3-furlong time of 31.7 seconds, but Masquerade Ball secured victory due to superior positioning.

A Race of Contradictions: Overview of the 2025 Tenno Sho (Autumn)

The 172nd Tenno Sho (Autumn), held on November 2, 2025, will be remembered as a unique event in horse racing history. At its core lies a significant contradiction: a winning time of 1:58.6, a relatively unremarkable figure, juxtaposed with an explosive and statistically unprecedented final lap time. The race’s final 3 furlongs (the last 600m) were clocked at an astonishing 32.9 seconds—a pace typically seen only in elite sprint races.

This report argues that this anomaly was not a mere coincidence but the result of a “perfect storm” where three main factors converged: a fast but standard track condition, an intentional and skillful tactical decision by the leading jockey, and a strategic, collective patience from the trailing pack. The key data defining this anomaly are the exceptionally slow first 1000m split of 62.0 seconds and the subsequent jaw-dropping final 3-furlong time of 31.7 seconds recorded by the fourth-place finisher, Shirankedo. Immediately after the race, social media buzzed with terms like “ultra-slow pace” and “sprint finish,” instantly recognizing the race’s unusual nature and providing the starting point for this analysis.

Factor Analysis ①: A Fast but Standard Track Condition

To understand the abnormal times recorded in the 2025 Tenno Sho (Autumn), we must first objectively analyze the physical prerequisite: the condition of the turf course at Tokyo Racecourse. In short, the track on that day was a factor that “enabled” the record-breaking final times, but it was not the primary cause that “triggered” them.

Deconstructing Objective Indicators

The main indicators of the track condition on the day were as follows:

• Cushion Value: The JRA announced a cushion value of “9.1,” which falls within the “standard” range. This suggests that the track was not an extremely hard, high-rebound “speedway” but was in a condition with appropriate elasticity, suitable for a typical G1 race day.
• Moisture Content and Weather: Although there was 29mm of rain on the Friday two days before the race, the track recovered quickly due to fine weather on Saturday, and the race was held on “good” turf. The moisture content on Saturday morning (15.6% at the finish line, 18.3% at the 4th corner) indicates that the track was not completely dry, retaining some moisture, which likely prevented it from becoming excessively hard.

Comparative Positioning

To evaluate this track condition relatively, we compare it to the previous year’s (2024) Tenno Sho (Autumn). The cushion value in 2024 was “9.6.” The slightly lower figure in 2025 suggests a marginally softer track, but both years were within the “standard” range, confirming that the track condition alone does not explain the abnormal race development in 2025.

The fact that the track condition was within a standard range strongly suggests that the root cause of the anomaly must be sought in another element: the tactical decisions of the jockeys during the race. If the track were the sole cause, other turf races on the same day should have produced similarly extreme final times, but the Tenno Sho (Autumn) was a clear outlier. Therefore, the focus of our analysis shifts from the physical environment to human factors.

Factor Analysis ②: The Jockeys’ Tactical Maneuvers

The race’s abnormality was defined by the tactical chess match played out by the jockeys on the turf. Specifically, the decision of one jockey who controlled the overall pace and the collective psychology of the group that followed him were the direct causes of the historically slow pace.

The Pacemaker’s Prerogative: Yutaka Take and Meisho Tabaru’s Choice

The race’s development was dictated by the pace judgment of jockey Yutaka Take aboard the front-runner, Meisho Tabaru. The official lap times clearly show that the first 1000m was covered in 62.0 seconds, an exceptionally slow pace for a G1 race. That this was an intentional tactic is evident from the jockey’s post-race comments.

“I let him run at a relaxed pace in the first half, and he was in a good rhythm. Because I slowed it down, the horse in second place came up on us a bit early.”

This comment confirms that the pace was deliberately slowed, providing direct evidence that the race’s development was the result of a jockey’s tactical choice. Furthermore, the fact that trainer Mamoru Ishibashi had given Yutaka Take “full authority” before the race indicates this was not a fixed stable instruction but a situational judgment by a seasoned veteran. The fact that the same horse, who had won the Takarazuka Kinen with a fast-paced front-running victory, adopted a completely different strategy highlights the strategic importance of this decision.

The Pack’s Patience: A Collective Decision

Why did the other 13 jockeys allow this abnormally slow pace to continue? The answer lies in the group psychology and game theory of horse racing. A look at the race chart shows that many of the top contenders, including the winner Masquerade Ball, were positioned in the middle of the pack, content to watch the leader. No jockey wanted to take the risk of moving up to increase the pace, as it would make them a target for the closers behind them. Each jockey bet on their horse’s turn of foot, opting for a showdown in the final straight, which resulted in the group as a whole accepting the slow pace.

This tactical dilemma is symbolized by the comments of jockey Damian Lane, who rode Tastiera to an 8th-place finish.

“The race was slow, so I tried to make a move that utilized his stamina over a long stretch rather than relying on a burst of speed. But because we moved early, he tired at the end.”

This comment illustrates how the slow pace forced the trailing jockeys into difficult decisions, ultimately neutralizing the strengths of many horses. Yutaka Take’s choice of a slow pace not only conserved his own horse’s stamina but also acted as a “weapon” that disrupted the race plans of others, transforming a 2000m test of stamina into a pure 600m sprint. The fact that the trailing pack failed to see through this tactical ploy and counter it speaks to the essence of this extraordinary race.

The Resulting Phenomenon: The Structure of an “Anomalous Final Time”

The deliberately crafted ultra-slow pace led to an inevitable conclusion in the race’s final stages. The conserved energy of all the horses was unleashed at once in the home straight, causing a flurry of record-breaking final times.

An Explosion on the Clock

The official lap times tell the story of the dramatic pace increase in the second half of the race. After the 200m split from 1200m to 1400m quickened to 11.5 seconds, the next 400m from 1400m to 1800m saw two astonishing laps of 10.9 seconds each. This was an incredible acceleration for the middle of a G1 race, indicating a complete shift to a battle of pure speed.

In this context, the final 3-furlong times recorded by the top horses were as follows:

• Masquerade Ball (1st): 32.3 seconds
• Museum Mile (2nd): 32.3 seconds
• Shirankedo (4th): 31.7 seconds

The Closer’s Dilemma: The Case of Shirankedo

The performance of the fourth-place finisher, Shirankedo, best symbolizes the peculiarity of this race. As his past record shows, he is a horse that unleashes an explosive late kick from the rear. On race day, he was in 14th position at the 4th corner, from where he recorded a final 3-furlong time of 31.7 seconds—the fastest in the field by a staggering 0.6 seconds. Jockey Takeshi Yokoyama’s comment, “He showed a great turn of foot… we just didn’t have the luck of the draw with the race flow,” perfectly summarizes the situation.

Because the ultra-slow pace caused the field to bunch up, the horses at the front when the final sprint began held a decisive positional advantage. For Shirankedo at the back, closing the gap on a leading group already running at top speed was physically almost impossible. This race highlighted a fundamental truth of horse racing: it’s not always the horse with the highest top speed that wins, but the one that can deploy its speed most efficiently within the given tactical constraints. Masquerade Ball’s victory was the result of a combination of an excellent 32.3-second burst of speed and a perfect position in 8th place at the 4th corner.

Comparative Analysis: 2025’s Anomaly vs. 2024’s Benchmark

To objectively assess how unique the 2025 race was, we will directly compare it with the previous year’s (2024) Tenno Sho (Autumn), won by Do Deuce. The 2024 race is an excellent example of a high-level G1 contest run at a more standard pace, making it an ideal benchmark.

What becomes clear from this comparison is the decisive 2.1-second pace difference in the first 1000m. This gap completely inverted the race structure, resulting in 2025 having a slower overall time but significantly faster latter splits, especially the final 3 furlongs. This data proves that the 2025 Tenno Sho (Autumn) was, both tactically and statistically, an extremely unusual race of a completely different nature from the previous year’s contest.

Evaluating the Record: The True Value of Shirankedo’s 31.7s

What is the historical significance of the 31.7-second final 3-furlong time recorded by Shirankedo? Is it one of the greatest finishing kicks in racing history, or a statistical artifact born from the race’s unique circumstances? To properly evaluate its worth, a comparison with JRA’s all-time records is essential.

Top Speed vs. Winning Performance

Several key points can be gleaned from this table. The absolute fastest records tend to be set in 1000m straight sprints or at Niigata Racecourse, known for producing fast times. Shirankedo’s 31.7 seconds, recorded on the G1 stage of a 2000m race at Tokyo Racecourse, is undoubtedly an astonishing figure in its own right.

However, this record was achieved after an extremely slow first 1000m of 62.0 seconds. It must be compared with the times of Do Deuce (32.5s) in 2024 or Equinox (32.7s) in 2022. Their records were winning final times in G1 races that were run at a much faster pace. In other words, they were the result of unleashing a world-class finishing kick after maintaining a high cruising speed in a demanding race, and should be rated higher in terms of overall athletic ability.

Therefore, the word “record” must be viewed from multiple angles. Shirankedo’s 31.7s can be called a record of “situational top speed.” It is valuable data that shows the upper limit of speed a racehorse can reach under conditions of maximum energy conservation. On the other hand, Do Deuce’s 32.5s is a record of “effective speed that led to victory,” and can be considered a superior performance for being achieved in the demanding flow of a G1 race. The value of Shirankedo’s record is not that it was the “strongest” performance in Tenno Sho history, but that it is an extremely interesting case study showing how race development profoundly affects a horse’s ability to perform.

Conclusion: The Statistical Legacy of a Tactical Masterpiece

The 2025 Tenno Sho (Autumn) was not just a slow-paced race. It was a tactical masterpiece crafted by a single master jockey, Yutaka Take, who skillfully exploited the collective hesitation of his rivals. This intentional pace reduction, combined with a standard, fast track, created the inevitable scenario of an explosive sprint finish.

This race left behind two distinct legacies. One is Masquerade Ball’s G1 victory, which proved the importance of superior finishing speed combined with tactical positioning. The other is the statistical marvel of Shirankedo’s 31.7-second final 3 furlongs, a figure that challenges conventional wisdom in horse racing.

Ultimately, the 2025 Tenno Sho (Autumn) became a powerful case study demonstrating that modern horse racing is not just a contest of physical ability, but also a mental and strategic battle. It teaches us that raw data, like final lap times, is meaningless without its underlying context. The story of this race is precisely that context—a tale of strategy, psychology, and the razor-thin margins that decide victory and defeat at the highest level. It will be remembered and discussed among experts and fans for years to come as a true anomaly in the annals of horse racing history.