Race Preview & In-Depth Analysis
Key Takeaways
Strong 3-Year-Olds
Prominent 3-year-olds benefit from favorable handicap weights, making them strong contenders.
Tripolitania’s Confidence
Despite a low training score, stable comments show absolute confidence in Tripolitania’s race-day performance.
Testimone’s Value
Experts rate Testimone highly due to rapid improvement, suggesting significant betting value beyond its odds.
Blinkers as Game Changer
Hiruno Hamburg and Camino Real wear blinkers for the first time, a change that could unlock major performance gains.
Race Overview
Race Name
4th Kyoto Day 4, Race 10, Tenjiku Stakes
Date & Time
Sunday, Nov 16, 2025, 15:00 JST
Track & Distance
Kyoto Racecourse, Dirt 1800m (Right-handed)
Class & Type
3-Year-Olds and Up, 3-Win Class, Handicap
Confirmed Entries (14 Horses)
| Gate | No. | Horse Name | Sex/Age | Weight (kg) | Jockey | Stable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Testimone | C3 | 55.0 | K. Furukawa | Kur.- Daikonda |
| 2 | 2 | Hiruno Hamburg | C3 | 56.0 | Y. Take | Kur.- H. Take |
| 3 | 3 | Ask Debut More | C4 | 55.0 | K. Tosaki | Kur.- Fukunaga |
| 3 | 4 | Meisho Zuiun | C3 | 56.0 | H. Matsuyama | Kur.- Honda |
| 4 | 5 | Tripolitania | C3 | 55.0 | C. Demuro | Kur.- Kamimura |
| 4 | 6 | Quantum Wave | C3 | 56.0 | R. Sakai | Kur.- M. Mikami |
| 5 | 7 | Glöschen | C4 | 55.0 | J. Nishimura | Mi.- Miyata |
| 5 | 8 | Kanetoshi Gout | C4 | 57.0 | H. Yuki | Kur.- Ohashi |
| 6 | 9 | (Overseas) Shinbelieve | C3 | 55.0 | L. Demuro | Kur.- H. Mori |
| 6 | 10 | Creme d’Ange | M5 | 52.0 | O. Tayama | Kur.- T. Suzuki |
| 7 | 11 | Sunrise Groove | C5 | 54.0 | Y. Hishida | Kur.- Maekawa |
| 7 | 12 | Rouge Mirage | F3 | 52.0 | M. Morita | Kur.- Y. Take |
| 8 | 13 | Camino Real | C3 | 55.0 | N. Taguchi | Kur.- Konno |
| 8 | 14 | Cosmo Jin Back | C4 | 54.0 | Y. Tani | Mi.- Aizawa |
Expert Analysis & Odds
Predicted Odds Comparison
As of Nov 15th, predicted odds show a split between two top 3-year-olds, but expert opinions suggest a wider contest.
netkeiba Odds
1st: Tripolitania (4.1x)
2nd: Hiruno Hamburg (4.2x)
Keiba Book Odds
1st: Hiruno Hamburg (3.7x)
1st: Tripolitania (3.7x)
3rd: Testimone (4.1x)
Notable Odds “Distortion”
A significant discrepancy highlights Testimone’s value. Ranked 7th (10.3x) by netkeiba but 3rd (4.1x) by Keiba Book, experts see rapid improvement, marking it as a horse with high betting potential.
In-Depth Analysis: Key Horses
Tripolitania
Stable’s Absolute Confidence
The predicted favorite, backed by overwhelming confidence from its stable. Trainer Kamimura’s comment, “I want this to be just a stepping stone,” reflects immense belief. Despite a poor workout evaluation, the stable insists the horse performs better in races, suggesting its true potential isn’t seen in training.
Hiruno Hamburg
Yutaka Take and the “Blinkers” Catalyst
A major change point for this popular horse is the first-time use of blinkers. This directly addresses jockey Yutaka Take’s feedback about the horse losing focus when leading. Combined with an excellent workout evaluation (“getting even better”), the new equipment could unlock a dominant performance.
Analysis of Potential Underdogs
Testimone: The biggest riser, recording a personal best sprint in training. Its potential for growth is materializing rapidly.
Meisho Zuiun: The stable is aiming for a win, leveraging its 56kg handicap weight. Showed improved forward drive in its final workout.
Shinbelieve: Performs well when not crowded. An outside gate and jockey L. Demuro could provide the smooth race it needs.
Camino Real: Another horse with first-time blinkers. Coming off two consecutive wins, this change could correct its inward leaning tendency.
Quantum Wave: Returning from a 10-month layoff after fracture surgery. The stable is concerned, and training suggests it’s not fully recovered. Overconfidence is unwarranted.
Training Evaluation Summary
| Horse Name | Final Workout Brief | Condition | Training Commentary (Summary) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Testimone | Showing improvement | ↗ | Recorded personal best sub-10 second final sprint. Rapid improvement. |
| Hiruno Hamburg | Getting even better | ↗ | Showed good form against a G1 horse. Light and in good condition. |
| Ask Debut More | Little change | → | Lagged behind in a race against maiden horses. |
| Meisho Zuiun | Stable condition | → | Increased forward drive in a three-horse drill. |
| Tripolitania | Legs appeared inferior | → | Often got beaten back, suggesting the layoff. Slight discount needed. |
| Quantum Wave | Improving with each workout | → | Not overweight, but not fully recovered from long break. |
| Glöschen | No signs of improvement | → | Lacks lightness and shows little improvement. |
| Kanetoshi Gout | No signs of fatigue | → | Despite a short interval, is energetic and shows no fatigue. |
| Shinbelieve | Stable condition | → | Maintains a firm physique after intense training. |
| Creme d’Ange | Little sign of improvement | → | Light training due to consecutive races. Any improvement? |
| Sunrise Groove | Not much improvement | → | Clock times are not bad, but sharpness is lacking. |
| Rouge Mirage | Light movement | → | Very light movement against inferior opponents. No stiffness felt. |
| Camino Real | Smooth movement | → | Lighter than last week’s workout, but a good finish. |
| Cosmo Jin Back | Doesn’t move much in training | → | Hung on against Lilac. Good for this horse. |
Key Betting Points
1.
Handicap Comparison
Strong 3-year-olds like Tripolitania (55kg) have a significant weight advantage over older horses.
2.
Training Evaluation “Contradictions”
Don’t discount Tripolitania’s poor training score due to stable confidence. Conversely, Testimone’s excellent training makes it a prime target.
3.
“First-Time Blinkers” Factor
Hiruno Hamburg and Camino Real could see a major performance boost from this equipment change.
4.
Handle Long Layoffs with Caution
Popular contender Quantum Wave is not in peak condition. Over-reliance on its past performance is ill-advised.
Final Prediction
The final prediction, including betting tips and recommended bets, is available at the following link.View Final Prediction
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