Kawasaki Racecourse – November 17, 2025
This report details AI predictions combined with expert on-site information for the Kawasaki Racecourse races on November 17, 2025, identifying 6 “value horses” with high expected returns. The analysis focuses on discrepancies and consistencies between AI’s numerical evaluations and qualitative data from stable comments, training reports, and expert race analyses.
| Race | Horse No. | Horse Name | Predicted Win Rate | Predicted Place Rate | Predicted Odds | AI Overall Rank | Analysis Key |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki 01R | 2 | Donc Bet Call | 37% | 56% | 220% | 1st | AI’s Absolute Ability vs. On-site Concerns |
| Kawasaki 02R | 9 | Reina del Arena | 19% | 47% | 355% | 1st | Clear Reason for Loss, Aligned Value |
| Kawasaki 05R | 11 | Joy Seven | 11% | 73% | 415% | N/A | “Place Anchor” Profile |
| Kawasaki 07R | 1 | Pod Duke | 27% | 64% | 257% | N/A | Class Ability vs. Distance Suitability |
| Kawasaki 09R | 12 | Switch On | 10% | 72% | 420% | N/A | Improved Conditions, Rising Form |
| Kawasaki 11R | 9 | Edono Phoenix | 30% | 64% | 241% | N/A | All Data Sources’ Evaluations Align |
This race is characterized by a significant divergence between AI predictions and expert on-site evaluations. AI forecasts a dominant performance by (2) Donc Bet Call, with a predicted win rate of 52.7% and a place rate of 86.7%. Conversely, experts anticipate numerous “dark horses” and potential upsets. The central question is whether Donc Bet Call can overcome on-site concerns regarding course suitability and fitness to realize its predicted potential.
AI ranks this horse highest for the day. However, stable comments highlight struggles with cornering on the tight Kawasaki 900m track, raising doubts about its suitability. The training report suggests it “needs one more gallop,” indicating it may not be in peak condition. The key factor will be whether its AI-evaluated absolute ability can overcome these on-site concerns about condition and suitability.
While (5) Tennouzu Isle (AI win rate 38.9%) and (9) Reina del Arena (AI win rate 21.3%) are strong contenders, AI designates (9) Reina del Arena as the “value horse.” Despite (5)’s higher win rate, (9) is predicted to offer better odds value relative to its win rate. Expert evaluations suggest a “smooth” race, making one of these two highly likely to win. Prioritizing “expected value” points to (9) as the primary focus.
This horse is ranked 1st in AI’s overall evaluation and 1st in expected win return (103), making it a true “value horse.” Its previous loss is attributed by stable comments to “the level was too high,” not a lack of ability. “Condition is improving” suggests an upward trend, and it has performed well in workouts against higher-class horses. AI suggests this is an opportune time to target it, as its evaluation has been lowered due to its last race.
This race features (11) Joy Seven, characterized by a “predicted win rate 11%, predicted place rate 73%.” Expert evaluation is “smooth,” indicating high reliability for its inclusion in placings. The strategic focus is on selecting partners for (11) Joy Seven, which is considered a reliable “anchor” for a 73% place rate. Potential partners include (10) Orikouerudorado and (2) Light Curtain, both of which stables are optimistic about.
The AI profile of “struggles to win but consistent in the money” (win rate 11%, place rate 73%) aligns with the stable’s comment: “It’s hard to win, but the condition is good.” Both data and on-site comments support its role as an “anchor for 2nd and 3rd place.” This high place rate makes it a valuable investment for place, exacta box, or trifecta box bets.
Expert evaluation suggests this race is “prone to upsets,” largely due to the inherent risks associated with the recommended horse, (1) Pod Duke. This horse, which won its last race at 1500m, is now competing at a significantly shorter 900m sprint, a reduction of 600m. This drastic change in distance is the primary uncertainty, making the race difficult to predict. The analysis hinges on whether AI’s indicated ability can overcome this distance suitability barrier.
While AI rates this horse as top-class, stable comments express significant caution regarding its suitability for the 900m distance, stating, “Unsure about the reduction to 900m” and “It will likely be difficult to lead all the way.” The speed and power required for a 1500m win differ from a 900m dash. Despite good condition, the stable suggests race conditions might be fatally unsuitable, making it a risky horse.
Expert evaluation suggests “high odds likely,” indicating value bets are available. The recommended horse, (12) Switch On, with a profile of “predicted win rate 10%, predicted place rate 72%,” is a strong candidate for a place anchor. Despite a drop in popularity after a heavy defeat, it has the potential for a turnaround by returning to suitable conditions, aligning with the “value horse” theme. Success depends on identifying horses with clear reasons for past defeats and showing an upward trend.
This horse exhibits a comeback pattern based on three factors:
These factors strongly substantiate AI’s high predicted place rate.
This A2/B1 class race is described by experts as a “tight contest” with multiple strong contenders. (9) Edono Phoenix emerges as a strong anchor in this competitive field. Expert data highlights its substantive performance, noting it finished 2nd in an A2 lower class despite a poor start. The stable welcomes the “distance reduction is a plus,” making it a central figure based on both pure ability and suitability.
This horse is unique among the recommended selections as all data sources—AI, experts, stable, and training—align positively. AI rates it highly with a 30% win rate and 64% place rate. Experts consider it a “contender to win” if it runs smoothly. The stable is confident in its suitability (“distance reduction is a plus”), and training evaluations indicate “good response,” signaling perfect condition. The rare agreement across all data sources makes its reliability extremely high.