This is a closely contested race where final condition and stable intentions are crucial. The race trend analysis indicates “many dark horses.”
AI Recommended Horse to Watch: 9. Baksheesh (5yo C)
AI’s top pick (◎) with an estimated win probability of 28% and place probability of 68%. Estimated odds of 3.05 indicate AI considers it among the top contenders.
5-year-old colt by To The Glory out of a dam by Victoire Pisa. Bred by Yoshihiko Yamaguchi, owned by Hiromi Wada. Ridden by Takeshi Saikawa (56kg), trained by Hashimoto stable.
Final adjustment on November 9 at Kobayashi Saka (Good track) showed a stable, high condition. Final fast work recorded sharp laps (23.7s for 2 furlongs, 11.3s for the final furlong) with eagerness to move. Trainer Hashimoto’s comment was conservative (“Fairly well-prepared. Condition is still not bad, so hope for a good race”).
Prioritize AI’s 28% win probability and the objective 11.3s final furlong time over conservative stable comments. Despite a pedigree suggesting a stayer, AI’s high evaluation in a 1200m sprint suggests significant latent speed.
This 2-year-old race is classified as “unpredictable” due to the rapid growth and condition variations in young horses.
AI Recommended Horse to Watch: 8. Wilded Rift (2yo C)
AI’s top pick (◎) with an estimated win probability of 22% and place probability of 52%. Estimated odds of 2.88 suggest market alignment with its ability.
2-year-old colt with a strong American dirt pedigree (Majestic Warrior (USA) out of an Empire Maker (USA) dam). Owned by Ryohei Maeda, bred by Koshu Farm. Ridden by Akira Yoshii (55kg), trained by Matsuura stable.
Exhibited “aggressive training content” with two “Ippai” workouts (October 29 and November 10), indicating a strong preparation for peak condition. Final fast work times: 65.7s for 5 furlongs, 38.5s for the final 3 furlongs. Trainer Matsuura’s comment was understated: “Progressing well in between races, and condition is fair.”
A gap exists between understated stable comments and AI evaluation/training content. The American dirt pedigree (power and stamina) likely influenced the stable’s choice of aggressive training. AI’s evaluation is presumed to highly rate this preparation and suitability for 1400m.
This 2-year-old special race clearly favors front-runners due to the “front-runner advantage” identified in race trend analysis.
AI Recommended Horse to Watch: 5. Wanna Have Fun (2yo C)
AI places absolute trust in this horse, with a calculated estimated win probability of 34% (highest among the five recommendations) and place probability of 64%. Estimated odds of 2.37 indicate AI rates its ability as overwhelmingly superior.
2-year-old colt by Moanin (USA) out of a dam by Tayasu Tsuyoshi. Owned by Soryu Ikeda, bred by Mario Stable. First race after transferring from Monbetsu. Ridden by Shigeaki Honda (55kg), trained by Arasawa stable.
Evaluated positively during Monbetsu training (“better feel than the previous race”). Adjustments at Ohi have been smooth, with “excellent” solo workout. Trainer Arasawa expressed caution: “First race after transfer and on a new course. Considering the class difference, I’m not sure this time.”
A significant divergence between AI data analysis and stable’s on-site feel. AI likely bases its evaluation on past performance data from Monbetsu. Trainer Arasawa highlights unquantifiable risks (transfer debut, new course). The key is the sire Moanin (USA), a dirt sprint specialist, and Ohi 1200m being an optimal condition. If stable comments lead to favorable market odds, this horse represents a “value bet” for those trusting AI’s data.
This 1000m sprint is classified as having “many dark horses,” indicating unpredictability. Specialized suitability and race flow are critical.
AI Recommended Horse to Watch: 12. GT God (4yo C)
AI’s top pick (◎) with an estimated win probability of 23%, place probability of 53%, and estimated odds of 2.79. These figures suggest AI anticipates a significant turnaround.
4-year-old colt by Daiwa Major out of a dam sire Sakura Bakushin O. Ridden by Tsubasa Sasagawa, trained by Mashima stable.
Training times were ordinary and should be disregarded. The recommendation is based on the alignment of stable comments and AI analysis. Trainer Mashima stated, “Will try 1000 meters. If the distance shortening increases its concentration, that would be good.”
The recommendation hinges on the “drastic change due to distance shortening.” The pedigree (Daiwa Major x Sakura Bakushin O) is typical of miler/sprinter types. This horse, previously plateaued, is entering a 1000m sprint for the first time. AI predicts its latent speed will blossom. Genetic suitability for 1000m compensates for ordinary training times, making it a “value bet.”
This race trend is “Rely on Performance,” favoring horses with proven B2 class track records or immediate stepping-up ability.
AI Recommended Horse to Watch: 8. Fieretza (3yo C)
AI’s top pick (◎) with an estimated win probability of 25% and place probability of 63%, considered reliable for B2 class. Estimated odds of 3.37 suggest AI perceives value between its ability and the odds.
3-year-old colt by Shanghai Bobby (USA) out of a dam by Rulership. Trained by Arasawa stable. Ridden by Tadashi Konno.
The only concern is its “first race after a long break.” However, thorough trackwork dispels this. Trainer Arasawa stated they “spent a long time working on it after returning,” completing a demanding regimen. Final fast work showed sharp times (23.2s for 2 furlongs, 11.5s for the final furlong) while “hand-ridden,” indicating “excellent preparation” and peak condition.
The layoff risk has been mitigated by thorough training, confirmed by stable comments and training data. Given the “Rely on Performance” race trend and minimized layoff risk, AI’s 25% win probability is reasonable. The value indicated by estimated odds of 3.37 suggests a “value bet” opportunity if the market overemphasizes the layoff factor.