- Key Points:
- Ohi 02R (C3-1 & C3-2 Dirt 1200m) AI Horse Racing Predictions
- Ohi 04R (2yo Thoroughbred Dirt 1400m) AI Horse Racing Predictions
- Ohi 05R Hibari Special (2yo Dirt 1200m) AI Horse Racing Predictions
- Ohi 09R Garnet Star Special (C2-3 Dirt 1000m) AI Horse Racing Predictions
- Ohi 12R Kagurazuki Sho (B2 Dirt 1400m) AI Horse Racing Predictions
Key Points:
- Ohi 02R: 9. Baksheesh is highlighted due to its excellent condition, evidenced by exceptional training times.
- Ohi 04R: 8. Wilded Rift, a 2-year-old, is noted for its aggressive training and American dirt pedigree.
- Ohi 05R: 5. Wanna Have Fun, making its transfer debut, has overwhelming data with a 34% AI-calculated win probability.
- Ohi 09R: 12. GT God’s shortening of distance to 1000m, derived from its pedigree, is a significant positive factor.
- Ohi 12R: 8. Fieretza, returning from a layoff, is expected to perform well due to thorough trackwork dispelling concerns.
Ohi 02R (C3-1 & C3-2 Dirt 1200m) AI Horse Racing Predictions
Race Prediction Key Points:
This is a closely contested race where final condition and stable intentions are crucial. The race trend analysis indicates “many dark horses.”
- Gold Brain (Gate 1, Stall 1): Returning from a break, trainer Ebina is highly confident, stating it can perform at its best and win immediately.
- Sieger Ocean (Gate 2, Stall 2): Head trainer Akamine provided negative comments due to a nosebleed and the need for a run, suggesting it’s not in peak condition.
- Chuor Sarah (Gate 8, Stall 12): Trainer Matsuura confirms it is in good form and looks forward to the race.
- The race is expected to be a contest between Chuor Sarah (good form), Gold Brain (confident stable comments), and AI’s top pick, 9. Baksheesh.
AI Recommended Horse to Watch: 9. Baksheesh (5yo C)
AI Assessment & Market Expectations:
AI’s top pick (◎) with an estimated win probability of 28% and place probability of 68%. Estimated odds of 3.05 indicate AI considers it among the top contenders.
Basic Profile:
5-year-old colt by To The Glory out of a dam by Victoire Pisa. Bred by Yoshihiko Yamaguchi, owned by Hiromi Wada. Ridden by Takeshi Saikawa (56kg), trained by Hashimoto stable.
Training & Stable Comments:
Final adjustment on November 9 at Kobayashi Saka (Good track) showed a stable, high condition. Final fast work recorded sharp laps (23.7s for 2 furlongs, 11.3s for the final furlong) with eagerness to move. Trainer Hashimoto’s comment was conservative (“Fairly well-prepared. Condition is still not bad, so hope for a good race”).
Analytical Conclusion:
Prioritize AI’s 28% win probability and the objective 11.3s final furlong time over conservative stable comments. Despite a pedigree suggesting a stayer, AI’s high evaluation in a 1200m sprint suggests significant latent speed.
Ohi 04R (2yo Thoroughbred Dirt 1400m) AI Horse Racing Predictions
Race Prediction Key Points:
This 2-year-old race is classified as “unpredictable” due to the rapid growth and condition variations in young horses.
- Mao No Adel (Gate 2, Stall 2): Received high praise from both the stable and training team.
- Mirai Heno Hero (Gate 5, Stall 5): Shows improved condition with “better movement than the previous race.”
- Red Sky (Gate 8, Stall 9): Temperament issues are noted, which should lower its evaluation.
- The race is likely a three-way battle between Mao No Adel, Mirai Heno Hero, and AI’s recommended horse, 8. Wilded Rift.
AI Recommended Horse to Watch: 8. Wilded Rift (2yo C)
AI Assessment & Market Expectations:
AI’s top pick (◎) with an estimated win probability of 22% and place probability of 52%. Estimated odds of 2.88 suggest market alignment with its ability.
Basic Profile:
2-year-old colt with a strong American dirt pedigree (Majestic Warrior (USA) out of an Empire Maker (USA) dam). Owned by Ryohei Maeda, bred by Koshu Farm. Ridden by Akira Yoshii (55kg), trained by Matsuura stable.
Training & Stable Comments:
Exhibited “aggressive training content” with two “Ippai” workouts (October 29 and November 10), indicating a strong preparation for peak condition. Final fast work times: 65.7s for 5 furlongs, 38.5s for the final 3 furlongs. Trainer Matsuura’s comment was understated: “Progressing well in between races, and condition is fair.”
Analytical Conclusion:
A gap exists between understated stable comments and AI evaluation/training content. The American dirt pedigree (power and stamina) likely influenced the stable’s choice of aggressive training. AI’s evaluation is presumed to highly rate this preparation and suitability for 1400m.
Ohi 05R Hibari Special (2yo Dirt 1200m) AI Horse Racing Predictions
Race Prediction Key Points:
This 2-year-old special race clearly favors front-runners due to the “front-runner advantage” identified in race trend analysis.
- Kannnon Pyonta (Gate 4, Stall 4): Trainer Watabe highly praised its training movement, indicating excellent condition.
- Pattsun Dress (Gate 6, Stall 7): Trainer Motegi noted its aptitude for 1200m sprints, suggesting it will utilize its speed.
- Speed types like Kannnon Pyonta and Pattsun Dress are expected to lead, leveraging the track bias.
AI Recommended Horse to Watch: 5. Wanna Have Fun (2yo C)
AI Assessment & Market Expectations:
AI places absolute trust in this horse, with a calculated estimated win probability of 34% (highest among the five recommendations) and place probability of 64%. Estimated odds of 2.37 indicate AI rates its ability as overwhelmingly superior.
Basic Profile:
2-year-old colt by Moanin (USA) out of a dam by Tayasu Tsuyoshi. Owned by Soryu Ikeda, bred by Mario Stable. First race after transferring from Monbetsu. Ridden by Shigeaki Honda (55kg), trained by Arasawa stable.
Training & Stable Comments:
Evaluated positively during Monbetsu training (“better feel than the previous race”). Adjustments at Ohi have been smooth, with “excellent” solo workout. Trainer Arasawa expressed caution: “First race after transfer and on a new course. Considering the class difference, I’m not sure this time.”
Analytical Conclusion:
A significant divergence between AI data analysis and stable’s on-site feel. AI likely bases its evaluation on past performance data from Monbetsu. Trainer Arasawa highlights unquantifiable risks (transfer debut, new course). The key is the sire Moanin (USA), a dirt sprint specialist, and Ohi 1200m being an optimal condition. If stable comments lead to favorable market odds, this horse represents a “value bet” for those trusting AI’s data.
Ohi 09R Garnet Star Special (C2-3 Dirt 1000m) AI Horse Racing Predictions
Race Prediction Key Points:
This 1000m sprint is classified as having “many dark horses,” indicating unpredictability. Specialized suitability and race flow are critical.
- Meisho Akikaze (Gate 1, Stall 1): Trainer Yutaka Kurita marked it with “◎” and aims for consecutive wins, indicating peak condition.
- The race dynamic involves suitable horses challenging Meisho Akikaze.
AI Recommended Horse to Watch: 12. GT God (4yo C)
AI Assessment & Market Expectations:
AI’s top pick (◎) with an estimated win probability of 23%, place probability of 53%, and estimated odds of 2.79. These figures suggest AI anticipates a significant turnaround.
Basic Profile:
4-year-old colt by Daiwa Major out of a dam sire Sakura Bakushin O. Ridden by Tsubasa Sasagawa, trained by Mashima stable.
Training & Stable Comments:
Training times were ordinary and should be disregarded. The recommendation is based on the alignment of stable comments and AI analysis. Trainer Mashima stated, “Will try 1000 meters. If the distance shortening increases its concentration, that would be good.”
Analytical Conclusion:
The recommendation hinges on the “drastic change due to distance shortening.” The pedigree (Daiwa Major x Sakura Bakushin O) is typical of miler/sprinter types. This horse, previously plateaued, is entering a 1000m sprint for the first time. AI predicts its latent speed will blossom. Genetic suitability for 1000m compensates for ordinary training times, making it a “value bet.”
Ohi 12R Kagurazuki Sho (B2 Dirt 1400m) AI Horse Racing Predictions
Race Prediction Key Points:
This race trend is “Rely on Performance,” favoring horses with proven B2 class track records or immediate stepping-up ability.
- Kagayaki Tenma (Gate 2, Stall 4): A 3-year-old with “outstanding consistency” and confidence from the stable to contend for the top even when stepping up, aiming for consecutive wins.
- Longing Nice (Gate 2, Stall 3): Making its second start after a break, showing clear improvement.
- The race is expected to be a showdown between Kagayaki Tenma, Longing Nice, and AI’s recommended horse, 8. Fieretza.
AI Recommended Horse to Watch: 8. Fieretza (3yo C)
AI Assessment & Market Expectations:
AI’s top pick (◎) with an estimated win probability of 25% and place probability of 63%, considered reliable for B2 class. Estimated odds of 3.37 suggest AI perceives value between its ability and the odds.
Basic Profile:
3-year-old colt by Shanghai Bobby (USA) out of a dam by Rulership. Trained by Arasawa stable. Ridden by Tadashi Konno.
Training & Stable Comments:
The only concern is its “first race after a long break.” However, thorough trackwork dispels this. Trainer Arasawa stated they “spent a long time working on it after returning,” completing a demanding regimen. Final fast work showed sharp times (23.2s for 2 furlongs, 11.5s for the final furlong) while “hand-ridden,” indicating “excellent preparation” and peak condition.
Analytical Conclusion:
The layoff risk has been mitigated by thorough training, confirmed by stable comments and training data. Given the “Rely on Performance” race trend and minimized layoff risk, AI’s 25% win probability is reasonable. The value indicated by estimated odds of 3.37 suggests a “value bet” opportunity if the market overemphasizes the layoff factor.
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