2025年12月27…
最新レース予想【自信】今週の鉄板レース5775まとめ：…
[Updated: 2026-01-23 17:04:25] Revised by AI Assistant
Analysis by AI
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November 17, 2025
For the Kawasaki Racecourse events on November 17, 2025, we present our expert analysis, combining advanced AI predictions with crucial on-site information from racing specialists. This report meticulously identifies 6 high-value “Bargain Horses” by scrutinizing the discrepancies and alignments between AI numerical evaluations and stable comments. Dive deep into each race’s focal points and strategic betting insights.
This comprehensive report for the Kawasaki Racecourse on November 17, 2025, uncovers “Value Bets” by integrating proprietary AI prediction data with qualitative, on-site insights. We conduct a multi-faceted analysis and verification, incorporating stable comments, expert training evaluations, and critical race point analysis.
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| Race | Horse No. | Horse Name | Predicted Win Rate | Predicted Place Rate | Expected Odds | AI Overall Rank | Analysis Key |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki 01R | 2 | Donk Beto Call | 37% | 56% | 220% | 1st | AI’s Absolute Ability vs. On-site Concerns |
| Kawasaki 02R | 9 | Reina del Arena | 19% | 47% | 355% | 1st | Clear Reason for Defeat, Value Alignment |
| Kawasaki 05R | 11 | Joy Seven | 11% | 73% | 415% | N/A | “Place Anchor” Profile |
| Kawasaki 07R | 1 | Pod Duke | 27% | 64% | 257% | N/A | Class Ability vs. Distance Suitability |
| Kawasaki 09R | 12 | Switch On | 10% | 72% | 420% | N/A | Improved Conditions, Rising Form |
| Kawasaki 11R | 9 | Edono Phoenix | 30% | 64% | 241% | N/A | All Data Sources Align |
This race presents a fascinating split between AI predictions and expert on-site assessments. Our AI data strongly favors (2) Donk Beto Call, projecting a dominant win rate of 52.7% and a place rate of 86.7%, far outstripping rivals. However, expert opinions hint at potential upsets, suggesting a “crowd of dark horses.” The core question is whether (2) Donk Beto Call can overcome the on-site concerns regarding track suitability and current condition to unleash its full potential. This divergence creates an intriguing betting scenario.
The AI rates Donk Beto Call with today’s highest predicted win rate of 52.7%, yet significant risks are highlighted by on-site observations. Stable comments indicate “struggled with cornering in the transfer race,” raising questions about its suitability for Kawasaki’s tight 900m sprint. Furthermore, the workout report suggests “needs one more gallop,” implying the horse might not be in peak condition. The key for this horse will be whether its inherent ability, as assessed by AI, can overcome these practical concerns about condition and track suitability.
In this 2-Year-Old Maiden race, (5) Tennouzu Isle (AI Win Rate 38.9%) and (9) Reina del Arena (AI Win Rate 21.3%) emerge as top contenders. However, the AI flags the latter as a superior “Bargain Horse.” While (5) boasts a higher win probability, its expected value is lower compared to (9), which offers more favorable odds relative to its win rate. Expert assessment aligns with a “stable” outcome, suggesting one of these two horses is highly likely to win. For those prioritizing betting value, (9) Reina del Arena is the horse to focus on.
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Ranked 1st in AI’s overall evaluation and 1st in Expected Single Win Return (103), Reina del Arena perfectly embodies the “Bargain Horse” profile. The rationale is clear: stable comments explicitly state the previous defeat was due to “facing high-caliber opponents,” not a lack of ability. Moreover, “condition has improved” indicates upward momentum, reinforced by strong workout performance against higher-class horses. The AI identifies this as an opportune moment to back Reina del Arena, as its prior loss may have unfairly deflated its market valuation.
This race features our recommended horse, (11) Joy Seven, with a distinctive profile: “Predicted Win Rate 11%, Predicted Place Rate 73%.” Expert assessment of “stable” further corroborates the high reliability of Joy Seven finishing in the money. The key strategy here isn’t solely “who will win,” but rather “who to pair with (11) Joy Seven, a horse with a 73% place rate, as an anchor.” Potential partners include (10) Orikou Eldorado, which the stable is bullish on, and (2) Light Curtain.
Joy Seven’s AI profile – “struggles to win but consistently places in the money” (Win Rate 11%, Place Rate 73%) – precisely matches the stable’s remark: “finds it hard to win, but condition is good.” Both data and on-site comments converge in recommending this horse as a reliable anchor for 2nd or 3rd place bets. Given its impressively high place rate, Joy Seven offers exceptional value for place bets, quinellas, or trifecta wheels.
Expert analysis labels this race as “prone to upsets,” a sentiment largely driven by inherent risks within our recommended horse, (1) Pod Duke. After securing a victory in a 1500m race, Pod Duke faces a drastic distance reduction of 600m to compete in a 900m sprint. This abrupt change in conditions is the primary unpredictable factor, making the entire race difficult to forecast. The critical question is whether the AI’s assessed ability can overcome the significant challenge of this new distance suitability.
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While the AI ranks Pod Duke as a top-class contender, stable comments are exceedingly cautious about its distance suitability: “How will it fare at 900 meters?” and “It will be difficult to lead from the front.” The explosive speed required for a 900m sprint is fundamentally different from the stamina and sustained pace needed to lead a 1500m race, which Pod Duke won previously. Although the horse’s overall form is good, the stable suggests a potentially fatal mismatch with the race conditions. This makes Pod Duke a high-risk contender, despite its AI rating.
As indicated by the expert assessment of “high payout potential,” this race offers promising opportunities for lucrative bets. Our recommended horse, (12) Switch On, presents a profile of “Predicted Win Rate 10%, Predicted Place Rate 72%,” making it a compelling candidate for a place anchor. Despite a significant loss in its previous outing, a return to suitable conditions could trigger a dramatic turnaround, perfectly aligning with our “Bargain Horse” theme. The key to cracking this race lies in identifying horses with clear reasons for past underperformance and a strong likelihood of improvement today.
Switch On is poised for a classic rebound, supported by three compelling factors. Firstly, the stable explicitly clarified the reason for its previous defeat: “the distance was, as it turned out, too long.” Secondly, conditions are now favorable, with the stable “expecting improvement with the distance reduction.” Thirdly, the workout report confirms “improved after a prep race,” indicating rising form. The convergence of “clear reason for defeat,” “favorable conditions,” and “improved form” provides strong evidence supporting the AI’s high place rate prediction for Switch On.
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This race stands out as a high-confidence opportunity, with a remarkable alignment across all analytical sources for our recommended horse, (9) Edono Phoenix. The AI projects a strong win rate of 30% and a place rate of 64%. Crucially, stable comments, workout reports, and expert paddock assessments all concur, presenting a rare instance where every data point points to a favorable outcome. This broad consensus minimizes risk and maximizes potential, making Edono Phoenix a standout “Bargain Horse.”
Edono Phoenix is a prime example of a horse where all indicators harmoniously point to a strong performance. Its predicted win rate of 30% and place rate of 64% by the AI are robustly supported by expert insights. Stable comments confirm the horse is “in superb condition” and “ready to perform,” while workout reports praise its sharp and powerful gallops. Unlike other selections with conflicting information, Edono Phoenix boasts universal positive feedback from every available data source, making it one of the day’s most reliable bets for both win and place. This comprehensive agreement across AI, stable, and expert analysis provides exceptional confidence.
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