November 16, 2025 • Saga Racecourse • 1400m Dirt
Key Takeaways
- ➤The race’s critical factor is the lead battle between Meiner Sahara and Silver Ghost.
- ➤The recent “Omura Bay” race is the most significant predictor, featuring half of the contenders.
- ➤Team Fonte emerges as a powerful dark horse from a different competitive route.
- ➤Digital Scion‘s dominant 90.5% win/place rate at Saga is heavily dependent on track conditions.
The Decisive Battle for the Lead
The race hinges on the initial struggle between two premier front-runners. Past data reveals a clear pattern: the horse that secures the lead gains a decisive advantage over the other.
4. Meiner Sahara
Weight: 56kg
“Omura Bay” Result: Led from the start and won decisively.
“Saga Open” Result: Raced from behind, finished 4th.
6. Silver Ghost
Weight: 54kg (2kg advantage)
“Omura Bay” Result: Raced from behind, finished 4th.
“Saga Open” Result: Led from the start, finished 2nd.
Prediction Point: Silver Ghost’s 2kg weight advantage could be the key to seizing the lead and reversing the outcome of their last encounter.
In-Depth: “Omura Bay” Contenders
Held just two weeks prior, this race is the most important reference, featuring six of the Winter Champion contenders.
“Omura Bay” Race Results (Nov 1)
| Rank | No. | Horse Name | Time | Jockey | Weight | Passing Order |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 4 | Meiner Sahara | 1:28.8 | Ren Hase | 56 | 1-1-1-1 |
| 2nd | 9 | Lord Midnight | 1:29.5 | Toru Takeyoshi | 56 | 4-4-3-3 |
| 4th | 6 | Silver Ghost | 1:29.8 | Shin Ishikawa | 54 | 3-3-2-2 |
| 5th | 2 | Digital Scion | 1:30.2 | Isao Yamaguchi | 56 | 5-5-4-4 |
| 6th | 11 | Abierto | 1:30.3 | Yushou Hayashi | 54 | 7-7-7-6 |
| 8th | 1 | Meiner Douglas | 1:31.1 | Taku Kawashima | 56 | 9-9-9-9 |
【1st】 Meiner Sahara
Achieved a perfect wire-to-wire victory, showcasing top-tier speed. However, data shows a vulnerability when unable to secure the lead.
【2nd】 Lord Midnight
Exhibits unmatched stability, consistently finishing in the top five. A reliable choice for the core of any bet.
【4th】 Silver Ghost
Performance is highly dependent on leading the race. The 54kg weight is the key factor that could enable a lead-grabbing strategy.
【5th】 Digital Scion
Boasts an astonishing record at Saga. Its chances improve dramatically on softer track conditions, making race-day weather critical.
Saga Course Performance Comparison
A look at the win/place rates for key contenders specifically at the Saga Racecourse.
2. Digital Scion90.5%
6. Silver Ghost62.5%
4. Meiner Sahara60.0%
5. Oicho50.0%
8. Feb Kirana47.9%
Featured: The “Saga Open” Challengers
The “Saga Open” results introduce a major challenger who could disrupt the hierarchy established by the “Omura Bay” race.
“Saga Open” Race Results (Oct 19)
| Rank | No. | Horse Name | Time | Jockey | Weight | Passing Order |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | Team Fonte | 1:28.2 | Ai Hida | 56 | ⑤-4-4-2 |
| 2nd | 6 | Silver Ghost | 1:28.7 | Shin Ishikawa | 54 | 1-1-1-1 |
| 3rd | 5 | Oicho | 1:29.1 | Wataru Ishikawa | 56 | 8-7-7-4 |
| 4th | 4 | Meiner Sahara | 1:29.4 | Isao Yamaguchi | 56 | 3-2-2-3 |
| 5th | 9 | Lord Midnight | 1:29.9 | Toru Takeyoshi | 56 | 6-5-5-5 |
Team Fonte: The Assassin from a Different Route
Defeated top contenders in the “Saga Open” with a winning time 0.6s faster than “Omura Bay.” A relaxed schedule and proven ability to win from off the pace make Team Fonte a top-tier threat.
Oicho: Consistent Closing Speed
Consistently finishes strong. If the front-runners tire each other out, Oicho’s closing kick makes it a prime contender.
Cona Black: The JRA Wildcard
A transfer with proven speed on turf, but suitability for Saga’s dirt track remains a significant unknown factor based on limited data.
Data on Other Contenders
- 8. Feb Kirana: Most experienced on the course but lacks recent form against top rivals.
- 11. Abierto: Recorded the fastest final 3F split in “Omura Bay.” Potential for an upset if the pace is fast.
- 1. Meiner Douglas: Significantly outpaced in recent starts; a data-based comeback is unlikely.
- 3. Vagabond: Returning from a layoff, facing strong front-runners presents a major challenge.
- 10. Daimy Seven: JRA transfer with uncertain adaptability to the 1400m distance.
Final Prediction Points
- Who will lead? The duel between Meiner Sahara and Silver Ghost is paramount. If Silver Ghost uses its weight advantage to take the lead, a reversal is highly probable.
- “Omura Bay” vs. “Saga Open”: While the “Omura Bay” group is strong, Team Fonte’s victory in the “Saga Open” suggests it may possess superior ability.
- Track Conditions: The performance of course-specialist Digital Scion hinges on the track’s condition on race day. A softer track significantly boosts its chances.
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