On November 2, 2025, the 14th Tosa Shusetsu Sho will be held at Kochi Racecourse to crown the 3-year-old mile champion. In a wide-open field with no clear favorite, contenders like the front-running Yurariyurameite, the surging Tosanomaihime, the recovering Yamanoashioto, and the talented but unpredictable Sekishouidai will clash. This article provides a thorough analysis of all 11 runners, expert insights into the race dynamics, and key points for your betting strategy.
The 1600m dirt course at Kochi Racecourse is characterized by the tight turns and short straight typical of regional Japanese tracks. The layout requires horses to run about one and a half laps of the 1100m circuit. With a short distance from the start to the first turn, the gate draw can significantly influence the race outcome.
The key to this race is the initial battle for position. Horses drawn inside can secure a good spot easily, while those on the outside risk being forced wide or having to settle at the back. The short straight often leads to a sprint finish, making a horse’s position at the final turn critical. If a horse can secure an uncontested lead, it’s entirely possible for them to control the pace and hold on for the win.
This year’s Tosa Shusetsu Sho has four standout contenders capturing the experts’ attention. We’ll break down their strengths and weaknesses based on data and public analysis.
Tipped as a top pick by racing publications, Yurariyurameite’s greatest asset is his exceptional front-running speed. Race data shows he consistently takes an aggressive approach, aiming to control the race from the start. Experts note he is “tough to pass when he gets the lead,” and with “no other strong front-runners in the field,” the analysis suggests he has a high probability of dictating the pace. Many see this as a golden opportunity for him to secure a long-awaited victory, making him a prime candidate for the win.
Despite poor results in his last two starts, Yamanoashioto’s potential remains highly regarded. Some experts believe his recent losses were due to conditioning issues rather than a lack of ability. His final workout earned a top “S” rating, with comments like “explosive speed” and “no concerns,” indicating the stable is confident he is in peak condition. Returning from a campaign away, refreshed both mentally and physically, a powerful comeback is highly anticipated.
Sekishouidai is a classic “talented but temperamental” type whose performance varies greatly day-to-day. While experts praise her potential, stating she “could win by a landslide on her best day,” they also point out her “tendency to be fragile.” She won her last race by an astonishing 2.7 seconds but suffered heavy defeats in the three races prior. With a new jockey taking the reins for the first time, the key will be whether this change can unlock her true potential.
Among the contenders, Tosanomaihime shows the most improvement. Experts clearly state she “has the edge in terms of momentum,” and her current form is highly valued. After a strong 4th place finish against tough competition in the Nishi Nihon Derby, she has steadily improved and appears to be hitting her peak. Her versatility to sit just off the pace is a major advantage, making her less dependent on the race flow. It would be no surprise to see her ride this wave of momentum to the top of her generation.
Beyond the top four, a number of talented horses are waiting for their chance. Here, we analyze the entire field of 11 runners based on data and expert opinions.
| Gate | No. | Horse | Sex/Age | Weight (kg) | Jockey | Trainer | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Yurariyurameite | C3 | 57.0 | Daichi Nagamori | Masamitsu Saiga | 5-4-5-6 |
| 2 | 2 | Ryunosu | C3 | 57.0 | Takuya Okamura | Tadayoshi Hosokawa | 7-3-2-10 |
| 3 | 3 | Yamanoashioto | C3 | 57.0 | Shuji Akaoka | Mamoru Tanaka | 3-3-4-7 |
| 4 | 4 | Miracle Dream | G3 | 57.0 | Hideyasu Sahara | Satoru Nagase | 5-6-7-5 |
| 5 | 5 | Sekishouidai | F3 | 55.0 | Shinji Hatanaka | Shinichi Tanaka | 3-2-0-12 |
| 6 | 6 | Zokuzoku | F3 | 55.0 | Masayoshi Yamazaki | Tatsuya Nakanishi | 1-1-3-9 |
| 7 | Fuinamu | C3 | 57.0 | Eita Inoue | Shinji Kudo | 2-0-0-7 | |
| 7 | 8 | Juggernaut | C3 | 57.0 | Minoru Miyagawa | Shinji Beppu | 3-2-1-4 |
| 9 | Olive Branch | C3 | 57.0 | Makoto Tadara | Mai Miyagawa | 1-1-0-1 | |
| 8 | 10 | Tosanomaihime | F3 | 55.0 | Hiroto Yoshihara | Teruyuki Kunisawa | 4-1-0-1 |
| 11 | Ace Odin | C3 | 57.0 | Koichi Seo | Joji Tanaka | 2-1-0-1 |
*Career record reflects results in regional racing only.
As mentioned, he is the key to the race’s pace. The field composition favors his front-running style, and experts believe this is his “best chance to win in a while.” The question is how long he can hold off the closers.
He is tough when he gets his way on the lead, as seen in his dominant win three starts ago. However, with the powerful Yurariyurameite in the race, he will be tested on his ability to adapt and race from off the pace.
His potential is top-class in this generation. A stellar ‘S’ rating in his final workout shows the stable’s high expectations. With master jockey Shuji Akaoka aboard, he could show a completely different side if he unleashes his true ability.
His consistency is his greatest strength, always finishing among the top contenders. His ability to stalk the leader, Yurariyurameite, is a significant advantage. He has enough talent to capitalize on a favorable race flow and secure a top spot.
On raw talent alone, she is among the best in the field. If she can replicate her last dominant performance on this bigger stage, she has the potential to overwhelm the competition. All eyes are on jockey Shinji Hatanaka to see if he can bring out her best.
A proven performer who has consistently contended in major races for her generation. Rated as having “a chance to strike if things go her way,” she is a closer who will benefit if the early pace is fast.
Undefeated in two starts since transferring to Kochi from the central JRA circuit. This is his first time at 1600m and a major step up in class, but his untapped potential is intriguing. This race will be a true test of his ability.
A model of consistency since his debut. He combines early speed with stamina, allowing him to perform well in any race scenario. He is unlikely to finish far off the board, making him a reliable choice for wagers.
With only three career starts, he is still inexperienced but is on an upward trajectory after his first win last time out. While still raw, his hidden potential seems considerable. One to watch for future growth.
The horse with the most momentum. She pairs with top regional jockey Hiroto Yoshihara for the first time. With his expert guidance, her powerful late kick could see her crowned the champion.
Boasts a perfect record of finishing in the top two in all three of his starts (2 wins, 1 second). His ability to handle the tough pace of a major race is still unknown, but his turn of foot is among the best in this field.
Based on the analysis so far, let’s break down the likely race scenario and key betting points.
The most critical factor is the race pace. As experts predict, the absence of other strong front-runners makes it highly likely that Yurariyurameite will easily take the lead and control the race at a slow to moderate pace. Given Kochi’s short straight, horses coming from far behind will face a very difficult task.
This scenario most benefits Yurariyurameite himself and the horses positioned just behind him, applying pressure. Specifically, Miracle Dream, who consistently races near the front, and the versatile Tosanomaihime and Juggernaut are likely to secure ideal positions.
If anything is to disrupt a slow pace, it will be a move from Yamanoashioto. Coming in with a top ‘S’ workout rating, it’s unlikely that jockey Shuji Akaoka will let Yurariyurameite have an easy lead. If he applies pressure early and turns it into a test of stamina, it could open the door for closers like Zokuzoku and Ace Odin.
The 14th Tosa Shusetsu Sho hinges on how rivals like the in-form Tosanomaihime and the recovering talent Yamanoashioto will challenge the likely pacesetter, Yurariyurameite. It’s a fascinating race that pits the tactical advantage of front-runners against the raw ability of the challengers.
For our final conclusions, including specific betting recommendations based on a comprehensive review of all the information presented here, please visit our special predictions page.
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