A thorough analysis of the prediction points for the ‘Rose Vale Sho’ held at Ohi Racecourse on November 13, 2025, based on training data, stable comments, and past performance. From the nine fillies gathered for this 1600m dirt race, we professionally analyze the condition of JRA transfers and proven performers, identifying the key ‘buy’ and ‘fade’ points to get to the heart of your betting ticket.
- Article Highlights
- Top 5 Contenders: Condition at a Glance
- Rose Vale Sho 2025: Judging the Form of the Top 2 Candidates
- Rose Vale Sho 2025: 3 Notable Contenders Aiming for the Quinella
- Rose Vale Sho 2025: Dark Horses and Other Entrants Analysis
- Rose Vale Sho 2025: Final Conclusion and Recommended Horses
- Next Steps
Article Highlights
- Marble Macaron is a top favorite, showing excellent form despite a layoff, with superior underlying ability.
- Camacho Queen, making her debut after transferring from JRA with a strong record, is a victory candidate if she performs to her potential.
- Keten Dream, with a history of three consecutive wins, aims for a comeback after a poor showing in her last race.
- Front-runner Two Shadow, hardened by competing against colts, could hold on depending on the race pace.
- The field includes various dark horses like Material Girl, running back-to-back from a Jpn1 race, and the lightly-weighted Ferdinand.
Top 5 Contenders: Condition at a Glance
First, let’s summarize the latest condition of the five most notable contenders, based on training briefs, stable comment ratings, and key points for the race.
| No. | Horse Name | Training Brief (Early Nov) | Stable Comment Rating | Key Point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Marble Macaron | Moves lightly (11/9) | ◎ Training smoothly | Clearly superior ability |
| 7 | Camacho Queen | Good condition (11/8) | (No rating) Good atmosphere | Victory candidate in first race post-transfer |
| 1 | Keten Dream | Excellent response (11/9) | ○ Maintaining form | Expecting a comeback |
| 3 | Two Shadow | Smoothly progressing (11/8) | ○ Increasingly tenacious | Can hold on with the right pace |
| 5 | Giselle | Sharp movement (11/8) | (No rating) Training is on track | Handling the distance is key |
Rose Vale Sho 2025: Judging the Form of the Top 2 Candidates
Two horses have received the highest ratings from expert analysis and stable comments. Let’s delve deeper into their condition and chances of winning.
9. Marble Macaron (5F, T. Fujita Stables, T. Sasagawa)
Data Analysis: ‘Clearly Superior Ability’ in Fillies’ Open Races
The analytical data on this horse unequivocally states her ability is ‘clearly superior.’ The reasoning is clear: she has never faltered in races against other fillies since transferring, and in her last race, the Sparking Lady Cup (Jpn3), she finished 4th but showed high performance by finishing ahead of the JBC winner.
A Sign of the Camp’s Confidence: ‘A Good Contest Even if the Next Race is the Goal’
The fact that she’s returning from a layoff of over four months is a concern, but the stable’s assessment is very bullish. Trainer T. Fujita gives her the highest rating of ‘◎’ and emphasizes her smooth preparation: ‘Although she’s coming off a layoff, she has been trained as planned and has completed the required number of workouts.’ The comment, ‘The next race is our main goal, but I think she’ll put up a good fight here,’ can be interpreted as a strong sign of the camp’s confidence that her current condition and superior ability alone are enough to contend for the win. She is considered the favorite, with ‘expectations of a winning start being natural.’
Training Evaluation: Recorded ‘Moves Lightly’ on 11/9 (Sun)
Backing up this confidence, she received a brief of ‘moves lightly’ in her workout on the Ohi outer course on Sunday, November 9th. Even in a canter, she showed movement beyond the clock time, leaving no concerns about her condition.
7. Camacho Queen (5F, Sakai Stables, T. Yano)
Data Analysis: The Reason She’s a ‘Victory Candidate’ from Her First Race Post-Transfer
Camacho Queen, in her first race since transferring from the JRA, holds the greatest ‘unknown potential’ in this event. Her potential is high, and expert data also rates her as a ‘victory candidate.’ The reason lies in the high level of competition she faced while at the JRA. In addition to her record of finishing on the board in JRA’s 3-win class races, the fact that ‘the winner of her race two starts ago finished 2nd in the GIII Miyako S on the 9th’ objectively shows how ‘high-quality’ the competition she has faced was.
A High-Return Candidate with Both Ability and a Difficult Temperament
While Trainer Sakai offers positive comments like ‘She has a good atmosphere’ and ‘I want to go in with high expectations,’ he doesn’t hide her temperamental issues, stating, ‘She seems to have a difficult side, so her tension on the day will be key.’ This suggests she is a high-risk, high-return contender who could win if she fully displays her ability, but also carries the risk of a poor performance due to mental issues.
Training Evaluation: ‘Good Condition’ on 11/8 (Sat)
Although a change in environment is a concern for a transfer horse, her training has been very smooth. She completed gate practice on Sunday, November 2nd, and in her final workout on the Kobayashi outer course on Saturday, November 8th, she earned a rating of ‘good condition.’ Her physical preparation can be judged as perfect.
Rose Vale Sho 2025: 3 Notable Contenders Aiming for the Quinella
Let’s analyze the formidable contenders who could challenge the two favorites. We’ll explore each horse’s chances based on training evaluations and stable comments.
1. Keten Dream (4F, M. Mikamoto, Uesugi Stables)
Data Analysis: Dangerous to Downgrade Based on Last Race’s Poor Showing
Although she finished a disappointing 8th as the second favorite in her last race, the Evening Star Sho, the data analysis warns that ‘it’s dangerous to downgrade her based on one race.’ The reason is her impressive three-race winning streak from two to four starts ago, where her ‘time and winning style were both impeccable.’ In a race limited to fillies, she has more than enough foundation to be competitive immediately.
The Camp’s Conviction for a ‘Comeback’
Trainer Uesugi stated, ‘She’s maintaining her form. She won’t be outmatched here, and we’re looking for a comeback.’ These words convey the stable’s strong intention, having understood the reason for her last defeat and expecting a turnaround this time.
Training Evaluation: ‘Excellent Response’ A-Rating on 11/9 (Sun)
Backing up these words, she was highly praised with an ‘excellent response’ in her workout on Sunday, November 9th. It’s safe to say her condition is perfect.
3. Two Shadow (6F, Y. Yamanaka, Ozawa Stables)
Data Analysis: Experience Against Colts Will Pay Off
She has been running consistently this year, and her performance in her last race, the Saitama Shimbun Hai, a graded race against colts where she led and held on for 2nd, was nothing short of ‘impressive.’ Trainer Ozawa praised her mental growth, saying, ‘Being challenged by colts has stimulated her, which was evident in her tenacity last race.’ She is a classic example of a horse that ‘can hold on at the front with the right pace.’
Training Evaluation: ‘Smoothly Progressing’ on 11/8 (Sat)
She was trained at a canter at the Urawa training center on Saturday, November 8th, and received a rating of ‘smoothly progressing.’ Her toughness, which makes her hard to pass if she can run the race at her own pace, is her main appeal.
5. Giselle (6F, S. Honda, Yamanaka Stables)
Data Analysis: Confirmed ‘Ability is Intact’ on Sonoda Expedition
In her last race, her first expedition to Sonoda, she finished 4th. The performance was enough to ‘confirm her ability is intact,’ and expert analysis considers her an ‘upper-tier candidate in an Open race.’ Trainer Yamanaka also has a positive view of her race performance.
The Biggest Challenge is Handling the ‘1600m’ Distance
The only concern the stable has mentioned is the ‘distance.’ Her recent races have been sprints of 1400m or less, making the extension to 1600m this time the biggest key.
Training Evaluation: ‘Sharp Movement’ on 11/8 (Sat)
Her condition is excellent, and in her workout on Saturday, November 8th, she showed vibrant, ‘sharp movement.’ The focus will be on whether this energy can be sustained over the mile distance.
Rose Vale Sho 2025: Dark Horses and Other Entrants Analysis
An analysis of horses with the potential to threaten the top favorites, as well as those that are difficult to evaluate.
6. Material Girl (5F, J. Wada, Kokubo Stables)
The fact that she was the first local horse to finish, placing 6th in the JBC Ladies’ Classic (Jpn1) on November 3rd, is a ‘result to be proud of.’ Despite the tough schedule with only 9 days between races, Trainer Kokubo asserts she has ‘no fatigue,’ and her training evaluation is ‘no drop in form.’ Considering the improvement from experiencing a major stage, she is a horse to watch.
4. Ferdinand (4F, R. Tatsushiro, T. Fujita Stables)
Last year’s Tokyo Princess Sho winner is showing signs of recovery after a long layoff. Trainer Fujita also feels she is in an ‘improving mood,’ and her training movements are definitely getting better. The biggest buying point is her ’52kg’ handicap. If she can leverage this weight advantage, she is a horse to be ‘highly cautious of.’
2. Coalio (5F, R. Takami, Kurita Stables)
She has been plagued by outside draws in recent races, but this time she has drawn the perfect inside gate of ‘Post 2, Gate 2,’ which the stable had been hoping for. With the biggest handicap that the stable cited as the cause for her defeats now removed, watch out for a completely different performance.
8. Nishino Cashmere (5F, A. Harita, Ichimura Stables)
With negative comments from Trainer Ichimura like ‘She might be suffering from summer fatigue,’ and based on her last race, she is difficult to recommend. Although she ran well three starts ago, her recent form warrants a harsh evaluation.
Rose Vale Sho 2025: Final Conclusion and Recommended Horses
In this article, we have analyzed the key prediction points for all nine entrants in the 2025 Rose Vale Sho, based on recent training data, stable comments, and past performance data. It promises to be a very interesting race, centered around the ‘superior ability’ of Marble Macaron, the ‘high-quality JRA form’ of Camacho Queen, and Keten Dream, who is vowing a ‘comeback.’
Next Steps
For the final conclusion based on data analysis, markings, and recommended bets, please check the link below.▼ Click Here for Final Predictions ▼
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