Race Analysis & Prediction
November 23, 2025 • Kyoto Racecourse
Executive Summary
The 2025 Mile Championship is more than just a race for the strongest miler; it’s a high-level competition where bloodline trends, advancements in training techniques, and jockeys’ tactical acumen intersect. This year’s race is characterized by the clash between the maturing four-year-old generation and the enduring strength of veteran horses. Jantar Mantar, who performed admirably in the preceding Fuji Stakes (G2) carrying 59kg, is a central figure. Other notable contenders include the seven-year-old veteran Soul Rush, seeking redemption, and Ascolipi Ceno, who has gained mental toughness from overseas campaigns.
Course Analysis: The “Truth” of Kyoto 1600m
The Kyoto Racecourse’s turf 1600m (outer course) is defined by the “Yodo Slope,” a significant uphill section from the backstretch to the third corner, followed by a downhill section towards the fourth corner.
- Third Corner Battle: The uphill gradient slows the pace, causing the field to bunch up. Falling too far back here can be a critical disadvantage.
- Fourth Corner Descent: Accelerating on the downhill section presents a trade-off between the risk of being thrown outwards and the benefit of gaining speed. “Dexterity” and “balance” are crucial.
- Straightaway: The flat, long straight favors horses with explosive acceleration rather than those with sustained stamina, allowing for a rapid top-speed burst.
Track Bias and Ground Conditions
While Kyoto Racecourse can be well-maintained, inner track positions can favor front-runners. However, the history of the Mile Championship shows many instances of horses coming from behind. Close attention must be paid to the day’s ground conditions. The wide, sweeping turns of the outer course are also a significant factor.
In-Depth Analysis: The “Big Three”
Jantar MantarSoul RushAscolipi Ceno
Jantar Mantar: Regal Demeanor
Evaluation: S
- Sire: Palace Malice
- Dam’s Sire: Wilburn
- Jockey: Yuga Kawada
- Trainer: Tomokazu Takano (Ritto)
Fuji Stakes (G2) Review
His second-place finish, despite carrying 59kg, was highly commendable. He was only 0.1 seconds behind the winner, racing in a prominent position and dictating the pace. His sustained acceleration demonstrated his G1-caliber ability.
Training and Mental State
His final workout showed a sharp 11.8-second final furlong and immediate response, indicating excellent condition. Trainer Takano’s comment, “his mental state is perfect,” suggests previous concerns have been resolved.
Strengths
- Significant improvement expected
- Reduced weight to 58kg
- Suits Kyoto course
- Races forward and finishes strong
Risk Factors
- Slight tendency to pull in previous race
Challengers: Assassins Lurking
Beyond the top three, several horses are poised to challenge for the win.Gaia Force
His victory in the Fuji Stakes, where he defeated Jantar Mantar, demonstrated his strong suitability for the mile. His front-running style and sustained speed are well-suited to the Kyoto outer course.Lebens Steel
Winner of the Mainichi Okan (G2), he is shortening from 1800m. His final workout showed strong forward drive, which is likely to be an advantage in a mile race.Off Trail
His victory in the Swan Stakes (G2) reaffirmed his aptitude for the Kyoto course. His powerful late surge and fast final split suggest G1 potential, especially in a stamina test.
Other Noteworthy Horses:
Elton Barows, Win Marvel, Docklands (UK import), and Lavanda (excellent condition) are also in the mix and could surprise.
Final Workout Ranking
| Rank | Horse Name | Evaluation | Workout Details & Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jantar Mantar | S | Ritto woodchip, last furlong 11.8s. Exceptional response. “Still moving perfectly,” showing full maturity. |
| 2 | Soul Rush | A+ | Blistering 10.9s final furlong in prior workout, sharp acceleration this week. Noticeably leaner. |
| 3 | Ascolipi Ceno | A+ | Ritto woodchip, finished ahead in paired workout. “Showing more concentration,” indicating mental improvement. |
| 4 | Lavanda | A | Ritto woodchip, close to personal best at 50.5s. Quick leg action, excellent condition. |
| 5 | Gaia Force | A | Ritto woodchip, last furlong 12.4s. Light, fluid stride, lean physique. |
| 6 | Champagne Color | B+ | Miho woodchip, last furlong 12.1s. “Good finish.” Showing improvement after a break. |
Conclusion: The Final Prediction
This year’s Mile Championship is a showdown between “complete and in-form four-year-olds” versus “seasoned veterans.” Jantar Mantar’s current form is particularly impressive. His second-place finish in the Fuji Stakes carrying 59kg is proof of his G1 ability, and he is expected to improve with a lighter weight. His bloodline also favors sustained speed, making him well-suited to the Kyoto mile.
However, Soul Rush’s peak condition and Ascolipi Ceno’s latent potential should not be underestimated. Furthermore, Gaia Force, who holds the key to the race’s development, and other contenders like Lebens Steel and Off Trail will be crucial factors in determining betting success.
Next Action
For the final betting selections, ratings, and definitive conclusion, please refer to the linked page. The professional final judgment, incorporating day-of ground conditions and odds fluctuations, is available there.View Final Betting Selections & Ratings
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