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2025 Laurel Stakes (SIII) Preview

A Stepping Stone to the Tokyo 2-Year-Old Filly Stakes

November 18, 2025 • Kawasaki Racecourse

Key Takeaways

  • (8) Anjurna: The strongest favorite with a dominant win at Kawasaki and few weaknesses.
  • (11) Nursery Tail: Undefeated with high potential, but faces challenges with a layoff and new course.
  • (12) Springafort: A dangerous favorite due to concerning training data despite confident stable comments.
  • Dark Horses: (4) Cantare and (7) Lamia Melodia could surprise, benefiting from the distance extension.

Race Overview

  • Venue:Kawasaki Racecourse, Dirt 1600m
  • Race Type:2-y-o filly graded stakes (SIII)
  • Weight:Set weight 54kg

Expected Odds

(11) Nursery Tail2.5x

(8) Anjurna2.7x

(3) Tokyo Anna5.2x

(2) Trips10.8x

All-Horse Analysis

Top Contenders

(8) Anjurna (2.7x)

Record: 5 starts, 3 wins. Decisive 2.0s win in Komachi Tokubetsu.

Pedigree: By Tiz the Law, with mare Azeri in lineage.

Analyst: Outstanding victory margin and perfect course suitability make it the top contender with minimal weaknesses.

(11) Nursery Tail (2.5x)

Record: 2 starts, 2 wins (undefeated). Won by 4 lengths despite slow start.

Point Data: Good racing sense, expected to adapt, personal best in final workout.

Analyst: Immense potential but faces challenges: layoff, first-time transport, distance, and course.

Third Group

(3) Tokyo Anna (5.2x)

Record: 4 starts, 3 wins (3-race win streak).

Analyst: Genuine winning streak. Experience in traffic is a major asset. Strong contender to upset.

(2) Trips (10.8x)

Record: 6 starts, 2 wins. Won Princess Cup (Morioka 1400m).

Analyst: Impactful win, but stable has concerns about distance and course. Risky bet.

(4) Cantare (29.1x)

Record: 5 starts, 1 win. 2nd to Tokyo Anna by 0.2s.

Analyst: Powerful late charge in last race suggests the longer distance will be a major benefit.

Noteworthy Dark Horses

(7) Lamia Melodia (19.9x)

Pedigree: Brother was 2nd in Tenno Sho (Spring), indicating strong stamina.

Analyst: Pedigree and recent acceleration suggest 1600m is a perfect fit. The most dangerous dark horse.

(1) Sarasa Challenge (189.2x)

Record: Good results in graded races in other regions.

Analyst: Experience against strong competition is a significant advantage. May be underestimated.

Point 1: Final Workout Analysis

S-Rank Training (Top Evaluation)

S-Rank (8) Anjurna: “Excellent spirit.” Praised for “sharp leg action.” In perfect condition.

S-Rank (11) Nursery Tail: “Good condition.” Recorded a personal best, dispelling layoff concerns.

A-Rank Training (Improving)

A-Rank (9) Ilflottant: “Good response.” Praised for “powerful stride.”

A-Rank (3) Tokyo Anna: “Maintaining good form.” Maintains winning momentum.

A-Rank (4) Cantare: “Sufficient response.” Movement rated as light.

Caution: Dangerous Horse

Poor Training (12) Springafort: Workout comment “Lack of extension.” Lost to a lower-class horse by a significant 1.0 second in training despite “full effort.”

This objective data contradicts the trainer’s confident comments and indicates a potential serious issue.

Point 2: Stable Comments Analysis

Strong Comments (Confident)

“I believe it can definitely compete.” – Trainer Kokubo on (8) Anjurna

“I’m looking forward to seeing its performance.” – Trainer Kawashima Ichi on (11) Nursery Tail

Conditional Comments (Concerns)

“…racing with four turns at a mile will be different, so that’s the key point.” – Trainer Ono Nozomi on (2) Trips

“…1600 meters will be a key factor. It would be good if it could settle down.” – Trainer Kato on (10) Mio Thunder

Experience-Focused Comments

“I hope it gains good experience for the future.” – Trainer Iwasaki on (5) Solvay

Point 3: Course & Distance Performance

“Komachi Tokubetsu” Group

(8) Anjurna defeated (9) Ilflottant by a decisive 2.0 seconds. The hierarchy seems clear, and a reversal is statistically improbable.

“Debutante Stakes” Group

Only 0.2 seconds separated (3) Tokyo Anna (1st) and (4) Cantare (2nd). However, Cantare’s late-charging race style suggests it will benefit more from the 200m distance extension.

1600m Suitability (Pedigree)

(7) Lamia Melodia‘s pedigree, with a strong long-distance performing brother, clearly favors the extended distance, making it a prime dark horse.

Conclusion: Summary of Betting Points

  • Favorites: (8) Anjurna is solid with minimal weaknesses. (11) Nursery Tail has high talent but faces challenges.
  • Third Group: (3) Tokyo Anna is a strong contender, while (2) Trips’ reliability is reduced by distance concerns.
  • Elimination: (12) Springafort shows fatal flaws in training data, contradicting stable comments. A strong candidate for elimination.
  • Dark Horses: (4) Cantare and (7) Lamia Melodia have strong potential to upset due to distance suitability.

View Final Picks & Betting Strategy

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ヤナシ社長(旧:生成系競馬予想)

データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。

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ヤナシ社長(旧:生成系競馬予想)