A Stepping Stone to the Tokyo 2-Year-Old Filly Stakes
November 18, 2025 • Kawasaki Racecourse
Key Takeaways
- ➤(8) Anjurna: The strongest favorite with a dominant win at Kawasaki and few weaknesses.
- ➤(11) Nursery Tail: Undefeated with high potential, but faces challenges with a layoff and new course.
- ➤(12) Springafort: A dangerous favorite due to concerning training data despite confident stable comments.
- ➤Dark Horses: (4) Cantare and (7) Lamia Melodia could surprise, benefiting from the distance extension.
Race Overview
- Venue:Kawasaki Racecourse, Dirt 1600m
- Race Type:2-y-o filly graded stakes (SIII)
- Weight:Set weight 54kg
Expected Odds
(11) Nursery Tail2.5x
(8) Anjurna2.7x
(3) Tokyo Anna5.2x
(2) Trips10.8x
All-Horse Analysis
Top Contenders
(8) Anjurna (2.7x)
Record: 5 starts, 3 wins. Decisive 2.0s win in Komachi Tokubetsu.
Pedigree: By Tiz the Law, with mare Azeri in lineage.
Analyst: Outstanding victory margin and perfect course suitability make it the top contender with minimal weaknesses.
(11) Nursery Tail (2.5x)
Record: 2 starts, 2 wins (undefeated). Won by 4 lengths despite slow start.
Point Data: Good racing sense, expected to adapt, personal best in final workout.
Analyst: Immense potential but faces challenges: layoff, first-time transport, distance, and course.
Third Group
(3) Tokyo Anna (5.2x)
Record: 4 starts, 3 wins (3-race win streak).
Analyst: Genuine winning streak. Experience in traffic is a major asset. Strong contender to upset.
(2) Trips (10.8x)
Record: 6 starts, 2 wins. Won Princess Cup (Morioka 1400m).
Analyst: Impactful win, but stable has concerns about distance and course. Risky bet.
(4) Cantare (29.1x)
Record: 5 starts, 1 win. 2nd to Tokyo Anna by 0.2s.
Analyst: Powerful late charge in last race suggests the longer distance will be a major benefit.
Noteworthy Dark Horses
(7) Lamia Melodia (19.9x)
Pedigree: Brother was 2nd in Tenno Sho (Spring), indicating strong stamina.
Analyst: Pedigree and recent acceleration suggest 1600m is a perfect fit. The most dangerous dark horse.
(1) Sarasa Challenge (189.2x)
Record: Good results in graded races in other regions.
Analyst: Experience against strong competition is a significant advantage. May be underestimated.
Point 1: Final Workout Analysis
S-Rank Training (Top Evaluation)
S-Rank (8) Anjurna: “Excellent spirit.” Praised for “sharp leg action.” In perfect condition.
S-Rank (11) Nursery Tail: “Good condition.” Recorded a personal best, dispelling layoff concerns.
A-Rank Training (Improving)
A-Rank (9) Ilflottant: “Good response.” Praised for “powerful stride.”
A-Rank (3) Tokyo Anna: “Maintaining good form.” Maintains winning momentum.
A-Rank (4) Cantare: “Sufficient response.” Movement rated as light.
Caution: Dangerous Horse
Poor Training (12) Springafort: Workout comment “Lack of extension.” Lost to a lower-class horse by a significant 1.0 second in training despite “full effort.”
This objective data contradicts the trainer’s confident comments and indicates a potential serious issue.
Point 2: Stable Comments Analysis
Strong Comments (Confident)
“I believe it can definitely compete.” – Trainer Kokubo on (8) Anjurna
“I’m looking forward to seeing its performance.” – Trainer Kawashima Ichi on (11) Nursery Tail
Conditional Comments (Concerns)
“…racing with four turns at a mile will be different, so that’s the key point.” – Trainer Ono Nozomi on (2) Trips
“…1600 meters will be a key factor. It would be good if it could settle down.” – Trainer Kato on (10) Mio Thunder
Experience-Focused Comments
“I hope it gains good experience for the future.” – Trainer Iwasaki on (5) Solvay
Point 3: Course & Distance Performance
“Komachi Tokubetsu” Group
(8) Anjurna defeated (9) Ilflottant by a decisive 2.0 seconds. The hierarchy seems clear, and a reversal is statistically improbable.
“Debutante Stakes” Group
Only 0.2 seconds separated (3) Tokyo Anna (1st) and (4) Cantare (2nd). However, Cantare’s late-charging race style suggests it will benefit more from the 200m distance extension.
1600m Suitability (Pedigree)
(7) Lamia Melodia‘s pedigree, with a strong long-distance performing brother, clearly favors the extended distance, making it a prime dark horse.
Conclusion: Summary of Betting Points
- Favorites: (8) Anjurna is solid with minimal weaknesses. (11) Nursery Tail has high talent but faces challenges.
- Third Group: (3) Tokyo Anna is a strong contender, while (2) Trips’ reliability is reduced by distance concerns.
- Elimination: (12) Springafort shows fatal flaws in training data, contradicting stable comments. A strong candidate for elimination.
- Dark Horses: (4) Cantare and (7) Lamia Melodia have strong potential to upset due to distance suitability.
View Final Picks & Betting Strategy
english
english
english
english
english
english