2025 Kyushu Daishoten Preview: Aenobrian’s Title Defense or the Rise of Star Bernoise?

A deep dive into the Kyushu Daishoten on Nov 2, 2025. At the 2500m Saga Racecourse, defending champ Aenobrian faces rising star Bernoise, undefeated in three starts since transferring. We analyze 10 years of race data, assess every runner, and uncover the keys to crowning Kyushu’s top stayer.

Key Takeaways

• The 2025 Kyushu Daishoten is a showdown between last year’s winner, Aenobrian, and the undefeated newcomer, Bernoise.
• Data from the past 10 years shows top-three favorites have won 9 times, but upsets from mid-tier contenders are a real possibility.
• The surest path to victory is tracking in 2nd-3rd position, a strategy boasting overwhelmingly high win and place percentages.
• Surprisingly, outside gates have an advantage over inside ones, making a smooth start to secure a good position crucial.
• Beyond the top two, strong contenders include the highly consistent Danon Turkish and Kanara Creek, who has shown long-distance aptitude.

Uncovering Winning Patterns: A 10-Year Data Analysis

Understanding past race trends is essential for building a solid prediction. Here, we dissect the “laws of victory” hidden in the Kyushu Daishoten, based on data from the last 10 races (2015-2024).

Favorites & Payouts: High Reliability with a Hint of Chaos

The Kyushu Daishoten is typically a race where the top favorites deliver. In the last 10 years, horses within the top three favorites have won 9 times, with a very high in-the-money rate. Supporting this trend, the trifecta has paid out over 10,000 yen only 3 times in 10 years. In 2015 and 2024, the top three favorites finished in order, resulting in trifecta payouts of less than 2,000 yen.

However, it’s not always a straightforward affair. Horses ranked 7th to 9th in popularity have secured 3 wins, showing that mid-tier contenders can rise to the occasion. High payouts have occurred when a top favorite fails to place or a longshot ranked 6th or lower breaks into the top spots. The key to a big win isn’t blindly betting on a dark horse, but identifying the most likely mid-tier horse (around 5th to 9th favorite) to capitalize when a top contender falters. The thrill of betting lies in predicting that “what if” moment when the established order breaks.

Race Style & Pace: The “Golden Position” for Victory

The unique 2500m distance at Saga Racecourse, which involves two full laps, creates clear trends in race development. It’s a grueling test of stamina, making a wire-to-wire “escape” strategy extremely difficult. Nine of the last 10 winners have come from a “front-runner” or “stalker” position. Most notably, horses that tracked the leader from 2nd or 3rd position have an astonishing record.

Horses racing from this “golden position” have a record of [7-3-5-6] over the past 10 years, boasting a win rate of 33.3%, a quinella (top two) rate of 47.6%, and an in-the-money (top three) rate of 71.4%. This is explained by the tactical advantages of the two-lap course. The lead horse acts as a “wall,” breaking the wind and setting the pace, allowing those behind to conserve energy. Horses coming from the back risk not catching the leaders in a long-distance race where the pace doesn’t always quicken dramatically. Meanwhile, the leader is prone to running out of stamina in the final stretch. Thus, the 2nd-3rd position, which allows a horse to save energy while being ready to strike at any moment, is the shortest path to victory.

Gate, Age, & Jockey: Essential Data Points

Gate Position: The Surprising Advantage of Outside Gates

While inside gates are generally favored in races with multiple turns, the Kyushu Daishoten shows a surprising trend. Perhaps due to the long straight to the first corner, outside gates like 11 and 12 have shown high success rates. This is likely because it allows horses to avoid getting boxed in on the rail and smoothly secure an ideal forward position. The advantage of being able to run one’s own race outweighs the extra distance covered.

Age: 6- and 7-Year-Olds Dominate, but Watch for 4-Year-Olds with Class

By age, 6- and 7-year-old horses are the core contenders. These experienced horses, at the peak of their physical and mental condition, demonstrate the stamina and racecraft required for long distances. However, the data for older horses is heavily skewed by the legendary Great Pearl, who won this race four consecutive times from ages 6 to 9. Among the more numerous 4-year-olds, those with top-three finishes in graded stakes races before transferring tend to perform well.

Jockey: Keep an Eye on Saga’s Ace, Isao Yamaguchi

None of the jockeys riding this year have won this race in the past 10 years. However, Isao Yamaguchi, last year’s leading jockey at Saga, has the most consistent record in this race, and his skill is worth noting. Any horse he rides deserves an extra look.

A Two-Horse Race? Analyzing the Top Contenders

This year’s Kyushu Daishoten is headlined by the clash between the proven Aenobrian and the surging Bernoise. Let’s delve into their strengths and weaknesses.

Aenobrian: The Reigning Champion of Consistency

Aenobrian, last year’s winner, is back to defend his title. Since transferring from Ohi Racecourse to Saga, his consistency has been remarkable: 5 wins and 6 second-place finishes in 12 starts, only once finishing out of the money. His greatest weapon is his ability to execute the ideal race strategy for this course: settling into a good forward position and pulling away. Although he finished 3rd in his last start, the Tenzan Sho, he scored impressive victories in the Asozan Sho and Kyushu Championship before that, overpowering his rivals. Trainer Tadashi Ikeda commented, “He’s progressing well. Despite the summer heat, he’s maintaining his condition,” indicating no concerns. Paired with Saga’s ace jockey Isao Yamaguchi, who knows the course inside and out, he is almost certain to control the race. A true champion’s performance is expected.

Bernoise: Undefeated Star with Untapped Potential

The main challenger to the champion Aenobrian is the 4-year-old up-and-comer, Bernoise. After transferring from the JRA’s 1-win class, his talent blossomed, leading to a three-race winning streak that has catapulted him into the top ranks. His last race, the Kunimidake Tokubetsu, was particularly noteworthy. He handled his first 2000m race with ease, winning comfortably from a stalking 2nd position. In that race, he defeated several of today’s rivals, including Kanara Creek (2nd), Cosmo Farnese (3rd), and Fluktuoik (7th), proving he belongs at this level. As a 4-year-old on the rise, his profile fits the data for successful contenders. The only question is the uncharted territory of 2500m. His last performance suggests he has the stamina, but conquering Saga’s toughest race will be the final test to see if he can usher in a new generation.

2025 Kyushu Daishoten: Full Runner Analysis

Beyond the top two, a field of talented horses is ready to challenge for the crown. Here’s an individual assessment of each runner.

Gate 1, No. 1: Fluktuoik

A 7-year-old veteran, but his recent form is lacking. He finished 7th in the Kunimidake Tokubetsu, 2.7 seconds behind the winner Bernoise. Trainer Ikeda’s comment, “He’ll likely settle back, so it depends on the pace,” suggests a passive strategy, which is a disadvantage in this race.

Gate 2, No. 2: Cosmo Farnese

A solid horse known for his consistency. Although defeated by Bernoise in his last start, he secured a respectable 3rd place. Trainer Motonori Mashima says, “If he can get a forward position like last time,” he has a good chance to hit the board with his tenacity. He may lack a winning punch, but he’s a must-include for trifecta bets.

Gate 3, No. 3: Flame Sword

He has been running in 1400m races recently, making the 2500m distance a major hurdle. Trainer Ryuma Nakagawa’s cautious comment, “His condition might not be ideal in the summer heat. We’ll have him wait back,” suggests he’s not at his best. A closing strategy is likely, which is statistically unfavorable here.

Gate 4, No. 4: Aenobrian

As highlighted in our analysis, he stands out in this field in terms of record, consistency, and course suitability. He has few weaknesses, and his chances of a repeat victory are extremely high.

Gate 5, No. 5: Kanara Creek

In his first 2000m race, the Kunimidake Tokubetsu, he ran an excellent race to finish 2nd, just 0.3 seconds behind Bernoise, demonstrating his aptitude for longer distances. At 6 years old, he is in his prime, fitting the profile of a successful contender in this race. The further distance extension could be a positive, and he might be the one to break up the top two.

Gate 6, No. 6: Bell Wood Glass

He has finished off the board in his last four starts, well behind the winners. Given the strong competition here, it will be difficult for him to be a factor.

Gate 7, No. 7: Bernoise

As noted, his momentum and unknown potential are second to none in this field. Drawing a statistically favorable outside gate is another plus. The biggest question is whether he can handle the 2500m distance.

Gate 8, No. 8: Danon Turkish

A veteran whose consistency rivals that of Aenobrian. He continues to run well, finishing 2nd to Aenobrian in the Kyushu Championship. Trainer Ryuma Nakagawa’s comment, “He just needs a little extra push,” perfectly describes him. Winning might be tough, but his solid late kick is always a threat, making him a top candidate for 2nd or 3rd place.

Conclusion: The Horses Highlighted by Data

To summarize our Kyushu Daishoten preview, the historical data points to a clear formula for success: a horse that is a “top favorite,” runs from a “forward position of 2nd-3rd,” and has “performed well in recent races of 1800m or longer” is the most likely winner.

The horse that best fits this profile is last year’s champion, Aenobrian. His record, race style, and jockey leave little room for doubt. His main rival is the undefeated Bernoise. His momentum is undeniable, and if he can handle the distance, he has the potential to claim the top spot.

In conclusion, the race will likely be a battle between Aenobrian’s “proven record” and Bernoise’s “surging momentum.” The horses most likely to challenge this duo are the ever-reliable Danon Turkish and Kanara Creek, who has shown new potential at longer distances.

See Our Final Picks and Betting Slip Here

For our final selections, including our complete betting slip and analysis, please follow the link below.View Final Predictions