[2025 Hyakunichiso Tokubetsu & Mochinoki Sho] Are Undefeated Stars Garofano & Pyromancer Vulnerable? A Data-Driven Deep Dive

On November 2, 2025, two key races for 2-year-olds, the Hyakunichiso Tokubetsu and Mochinoki Sho, will be held. We provide a thorough analysis of these pivotal turf and dirt contests, crucial for predicting future stars, based on official data and workout times. Are there any chinks in the armor of undefeated talents like Garofano and Pyromancer? We objectively assess the strengths and risks of each top contender to get to the heart of horse racing prediction.

Key Takeaways

• In the Hyakunichiso Tokubetsu, Garofano is the clear favorite, but concerns exist regarding his immaturity and lack of agility.
• Rival Forte Angelo shows significant potential for growth, while Elliptic Curve stands out for his tactical acumen.
• In the Mochinoki Sho, Pyromancer’s talent is undeniable, but his mental immaturity could be a challenge in a large field.
• Unconventional contender Bokumadanemuiyo, the well-trained Wonder Dean, and the tactically advantaged Sugar Biscuits are all dark horses not to be underestimated.

[Hyakunichiso Tokubetsu 2025] Race Preview & Top Contender Analysis

First, let’s analyze the turf race, the Hyakunichiso Tokubetsu. The race is the 8th at Tokyo Racecourse, with a post time of 13:50. It’s a special weight race for 2-year-olds with one win, run over 2000m on turf (left-handed, B course). This year’s small field of five means that not only the absolute ability of each horse but also race tactics and jockey strategy will likely play a significant role in the outcome.

Looking at expert evaluations and predicted odds, the power dynamic is clear.

The Main Contender: Finding Garofano’s Weaknesses

Among the entrants, Garofano is considered the absolute main contender. All four experts gave him the highest rating “◎”, and with predicted odds of 1.9, he is the overwhelming favorite. This evaluation is backed by his impressive win in his debut race over 1800m on turf at Niigata. Post-race notes record that despite a slow start, he effortlessly broke through the pack in the home stretch.

Jockey Keita Tosaki praised his explosive acceleration, saying, “When I asked him to go, he responded with a huge burst of speed,” but also pointed out his mental immaturity, noting, “He’s still very green in his running.” This duality is also evident in the stable’s comments. Trainer Kuroiwa stated, “He’s not the most agile, but he has a long, sustained kick, so the 2000m at Tokyo should suit him,” believing the long straight will play to his strengths. After a spell at the farm, he is in “good shape,” and in his final workout, he showed impressive movement against the higher-ranked older horse Perriere, earning high praise for his “excellent condition.”

His pedigree is also strong. Progeny of his sire, Kitasan Black, have an excellent affinity for the Tokyo 2000m turf course, with data showing a high win rate of 17.9% and an in-the-money rate of 42.9%. However, within this dominant data, a slight vulnerability emerges. The “slow start” in his debut, the stable’s admission of his lack of “agility,” and the jockey’s mention of his “greenness” all suggest a lack of professional polish. A small field of five often leads to a slow-paced race decided by a final sprint. If he is heavily marked by other horses or required to adapt to changes in pace, his clumsiness could be his downfall. Garofano’s victory depends on a smooth race where he can fully utilize his abilities.

Top Challenger: Forte Angelo’s Potential

The main challenger to Garofano is Forte Angelo. He has garnered three “◎” and one “○” from experts and is the second favorite with predicted odds of 2.5. His appeal lies in his immense potential. In his debut over 1800m on turf at Nakayama, he was completely boxed in from the fourth corner to the home stretch. From that desperate situation, he burst through with a “sharp turn of foot” the moment a gap opened. Although the winning margin was small, post-race notes praised it as a “strong performance,” showcasing his extraordinary ability.

Trainer Yu Uehara recalls, “He was still immature both mentally and physically, so his debut performance, which showed his ability, was very encouraging.” He adds, “After a short break at the farm, his body has grown, and there’s plenty of room for improvement,” indicating significant progress. True to his words, his final workout was rated as “full of promise,” and in his October 23rd gallop, he displayed a “powerful stride,” overwhelming his work partner. His sire is Fierement, a stayer who won both the Kikuka Sho and the Tenno Sho (Spring). His progeny, like their sire, tend to mature late and show their true potential on wide courses. The “growth” and “improvement” mentioned by the stable are evidence that these pedigree traits are beginning to blossom. While Garofano’s lack of agility might be innate, Forte Angelo’s “immaturity” is something that time will resolve. He is the horse most likely to show the greatest improvement since his last race.

The Dark Horse: Elliptic Curve’s Tactical Eye

Elliptic Curve, with predicted odds of 4.6, has the potential to upset the top two. His weapon is not just raw ability but his tactical sense to read the flow of the race. In his debut over 1800m on turf at Sapporo, he conserved energy at the back of the field early on. Judging the pace to be slow, he made a decisive move after the second corner to secure second position. This excellent judgment led directly to his victory. Post-race notes commented, “Moving up when the pace was slow was the key,” highlighting the jockey’s calm decision-making and the horse’s mobility.

His condition is also excellent. Before his debut, jockey Takeshi Yokoyama noted, “His workout a week before was not good, but this week he has improved dramatically.” This time, his final workout was described as an “ambitious gallop,” showing the stable is aiming high. His sire is the Japanese Derby winner Rey de Oro, whose progeny often excel at Tokyo Racecourse, making the venue ideal. In small fields, top contenders often watch each other, leading to a slow pace. This is not necessarily a welcome development for a horse like Garofano, who relies on a long, sustained run, or Forte Angelo, who wants a late-speed duel. Elliptic Curve, however, has already won by reading and exploiting a slow pace. If a similar scenario unfolds, his tactical sense could dominate the race again. He is not just a third-choice horse but a “joker” who could disrupt the entire race and requires maximum caution.

[Mochinoki Sho 2025] Race Preview & Top Contender Analysis

Meanwhile, on the dirt track, 16 elite horses will gather for the Mochinoki Sho. The race is the 9th at Kyoto Racecourse, with a post time of 14:10, run over 1800m on dirt (right-handed). In contrast to the Hyakunichiso Tokubetsu, this is a full-gate race that will be a tougher test, demanding the agility to navigate a crowded field and the mental fortitude to handle kickback.

Dirt’s New Star: Pyromancer’s Polish and Problems

Pyromancer has garnered the most support from experts. With three “◎” ratings, he is the favorite with predicted odds of 2.7. The basis for this evaluation is his “dominant” performance in his debut over 1800m on dirt at Kyoto. Jockey Takeshi Yokoyama praised his talent, saying, “I could feel his quality from the moment I got on him for the warm-up.” However, he also revealed extreme mental immaturity: “He’s still very childish, looking around even when running in second, and he got distracted by his own hoofprints after taking the lead.”

Trainer Yoshimura acknowledges this duality, suggesting a mix of fighting spirit and unresolved issues: “He’s still young and tends to play around when he gets out in front, but he finds another gear when another horse comes up behind him.” Nevertheless, he has high hopes for future growth, stating, “There’s still plenty of room for improvement.” Living up to these expectations, his final workout was rated as “increasingly sharp,” and his condition is perfect. His sire is Pyro, whose progeny tend to excel at distances from 1400m to 1700m, suggesting 1800m might be slightly long. However, depending on the dam’s side, some can handle up to 2000m, and since he has already won convincingly at this distance, concerns about stamina may be unfounded.

The biggest key for Pyromancer is whether he can deliver 100% of his exceptional ability in the race. Unlike a small field in his debut, a 16-horse race will inevitably involve getting kickback and being caught in traffic. If he gets distracted or loses focus over minor things, the race could be over before he has a chance to show his talent. This imbalance between overwhelming ability and lagging mental maturity makes him a “vulnerable favorite.”

Signs of Awakening: Bokumadanemuiyo’s Unconventional Style

In a different sense from Pyromancer, Bokumadanemuiyo exudes an unconventional presence and is also highly rated by experts. He became famous for an anecdote from his debut over 1800m on dirt at Hanshin. After the race, jockey Atsuya Nishimura left a surprising comment: “He was sleeping right up until we were in the starting gate.” He seemed to be in a dreamlike state during the race as well, but as Nishimura said, “He woke up and showed a great turn of foot” in the home stretch, and his final kick was nothing short of spectacular. Post-race notes praised his run, stating, “Excellent final kick. Looks like he could move up the ranks.”

Trainer Higashida expressed his excitement, saying, “He won in a strong fashion, so we’re looking forward to his future.” However, he also pointed out a potential challenge: “The pace was slow in his debut, so it will be interesting to see how he handles a faster pace as he moves up in class.” His final workout was smooth, described as having a “light-footed action.” He is from the first crop of the dirt champion Chrysoberyl. His sire’s pedigree includes stamina-rich names like El Condor Pasa, and his progeny are expected to excel at middle to long distances on dirt. Is Bokumadanemuiyo’s unconventional personality a sign of greatness or just a quirk? If his fighting spirit “awakens” in a tough race, a dominant victory where he leaves the others behind is conceivable. But there’s also a non-zero chance he gets overwhelmed by the pressure and finishes the race still “asleep.” He is truly the most unpredictable horse in the field, possessing both immense charm and risk.

Analyzing the Sleepers: Well-Worked Wonder Dean & Tactically Advantaged Sugar Biscuits

While the top two favorites carry risks along with their talent, it’s worth paying attention to the more polished and consistent dark horses.

Wonder Dean
A talented horse supported as the second favorite with predicted odds of 5.2. In his first dirt race at Nakayama over 1800m, he delivered a crushing victory, winning by 8 lengths. Assistant trainer Tomomichi is confident, saying, “We have high expectations even with the step up in class.” The main reason for this confidence is his outstanding workout performance. When training alongside Museum Mile, an established open-class horse, the comment was, “If anything, our horse had more in hand,” which speaks volumes about his current condition and ability. Progeny of his sire, Dee Majesty, tend to perform well on tough dirt courses, so this venue should be to his liking. Judging by his training, he likely possesses ability beyond the one-win class level.

Sugar Biscuits
A speedy filly who won her debut over 1800m on dirt at Chukyo by 7 lengths, leading from start to finish. The stable’s strategy is clear this time as well, declaring their intention to “go to the lead again.” While she has a tendency to get tense, her ability is highly regarded. The biggest reason to back her is the perfect alignment of pedigree, running style, and post position. Data shows that progeny of her sire, Mind Your Biscuits, strongly dislike being in a pack. However, her front-running style inherently avoids this risk. Furthermore, she has drawn the far outside post, 16 of 16. For a horse of her pedigree that dislikes traffic, this is the best possible position to get to the front smoothly. Her pedigree weakness is perfectly covered by her running style and an ideal draw. Tactically, she holds the biggest advantage in the field.

Conclusion: Final Picks and Betting Strategy

The Hyakunichiso Tokubetsu and the Mochinoki Sho. The data reveals both the strengths and the hidden risks of each top contender. In the Hyakunichiso Tokubetsu, the question is how Elliptic Curve’s tactics will challenge the overwhelming ability of Garofano and Forte Angelo. In the Mochinoki Sho, the highlight will be how the perfectly prepared Wonder Dean and the tactically advantaged Sugar Biscuits will take on the talented young colts, Pyromancer and Bokumadanemuiyo.

So, which horse should you build your bets around, and how should you structure your tickets? My final conclusions and specific betting recommendations are available on our expert page. Please use them as the final piece of your betting puzzle.

Next Steps

See the Final Predictions and Picks Here