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2025 Horse Racing Predictions: Top Contenders for the Okizarisu Sho, Kizugawa Tokubetsu & Nihonmatsu Tokubetsu

November 8, 2025 / Updated November 8, 2025

A thorough analysis of the featured races on November 9, 2025: the Okizarisu Sho at Tokyo, the Kizugawa Tokubetsu at Kyoto, and the Nihonmatsu Tokubetsu at Fukushima. Based on official data, we provide an expert’s perspective on the evaluation of top contenders like Satono Voyage, Barrel Turn, and Ho O Chocolat, and break down the key points that will determine the race outcomes.

Article Highlights

  • Okizarisu Sho: Focus is on the showdown between two powerhouses: Satono Voyage, who holds the course record, and the rapidly improving Ask Kentucky, coming off a series of dominant wins.
  • Kizugawa Tokubetsu: Barrel Turn is highly reliable, as the reason for his last defeat due to interference is clear. His main rival is Fairy Like, whose performance hinges on settling calmly.
  • Nihonmatsu Tokubetsu: The race outcome will depend on the condition of two talented horses returning from layoffs: Ho O Chocolat (recovering from a fracture) and Win Shargas (returning from a refresh).

Table of Contents

  1. Okizarisu Sho 2025 (Tokyo 9R, Dirt 1400m) Predictions & Analysis
  2. Kizugawa Tokubetsu 2025 (Kyoto 9R, Turf 1600m) Predictions & Analysis
  3. Nihonmatsu Tokubetsu 2025 (Fukushima 9R, Turf 1800m) Predictions & Analysis
  4. Conclusion and Final Predictions

Okizarisu Sho 2025 (Tokyo 9R, Dirt 1400m)

Race Outlook: A High-Level Clash of 2-Year-Olds with Dominant Wins

This 1-win class race for 2-year-olds at Tokyo Dirt 1400m features a field of horses who delivered impressive performances in their last starts. In such a lineup, the key to victory lies not just in their finishing positions, but in the *manner* of their wins and the *quality* of their times.

In-depth Analysis of Top Contenders

Satono Voyage (No. 14)
The central figure, unanimously marked with “◎” by experts and the clear favorite with predicted odds of 2.7. The basis for this high rating is clear: the stable’s comment gives the highest praise, stating his “last race time was outstanding.” This is backed by the post-race interview, where it was noted his last run (Niigata Dirt 1400m) was an “overwhelming victory by a large margin” that “set a new course record”—an exceptional performance for a 2-year-old. His training evaluation also indicates he is in top form, with the final workout brief as “full of speed” and his condition arrow at “” (maintaining good form). The ability to win with a record time as a 2-year-old suggests he can easily overcome the challenge of moving up in class, making him the most reliable contender based on objective facts.

(FR) Ask Kentucky (No. 7)
The leading challenger to Satono Voyage. Highly rated by experts with “◎▲▲” and offers good value with predicted odds of 10.0. The stable is highly confident, stating he “won decisively and can compete immediately” at this level. This confidence stems from his debut race (Kyoto Dirt 1400m), a comfortable “4-length victory,” with the jockey confirming he “can hold his own in higher classes.” The most crucial point is his upward trajectory. His final workout is described as “getting better and better,” and his condition arrow is “” (improving). While Satono Voyage is rated on “time,” Ask Kentucky is rated on “race performance (dominant win)” and “significant improvement (↗).” This improvement could be enough to overcome the time difference from their previous races.

Analysis of Noteworthy Horses and Dark Horses

Magic Cookie (No. 6)
His transformation in the last race is drawing attention. Importantly, this is not his first time wearing blinkers; he already demonstrated their effectiveness in his previous start. The post-race interview noted, “The blinkers helped him run properly” and “he had an incredible late kick,” resulting in a dominant “5-length victory.” The stable also highly rates his turnaround on dirt, commenting on his “powerful finish last race.” With a training evaluation of “full of vigor” and a condition arrow of “” (improving), it strongly suggests his last performance was no fluke.

Inubono Asahi (No. 2)
A strong contender for a place finish with predicted odds of 9.1 and expert marks of “○△”. His greatest strength, as noted by the stable, is his course suitability, as he is “moving up in class but on the same track”—the Tokyo Dirt 1400m. He proved his strong finishing kick in his last race with the “fastest final 600m V,” and his training confirms this weapon is still sharp, with comments on his “good late speed” ().

(FR) Ecoro Seed (No. 8)
One of the popular choices with predicted odds of 6.3. The stable rates his potential highly, calling him a “colt with more room to grow,” and his winning time in the last race was “fast,” confirming his current ability.

Okizarisu Sho: Key Contender Data

Horse Name (No.)Predicted OddsExpert Picks (YK/H/YO)Training Eval. (Brief/Arrow)Key Comments (Stable/Last Race)
Satono Voyage (14)2.7▲ / ○ / ◎Full of speed ()“Excellent time in last race” (Stable). Won by a large margin, setting a course record.
(FR) Ecoro Seed (8)6.3– / – / △Well-built, impressive movement ()“Colt with more room to grow” (Stable). Fast time in last race.
Inubono Asahi (2)9.1○ / △ / △Good late speed ()“Moving up in class but on the same track” (Stable). Won with fastest final 600m.
(FR) Ask Kentucky (7)10.0◎ / – / ▲Getting better and better ()“Dominant win, can compete immediately” (Stable). Won by 4 lengths.
Don Electos (9)10.8△ / ◎ / △Good condition ()“Has enough ability to be competitive” (Stable).
Magic Cookie (6)11.5– / ▲ / –Full of vigor ()“Powerful finish last race” (Stable). Transformed with blinkers, won by 5 lengths.

Analysis of Other Runners

Ray of Fire (1)Jockey calmly noted “the race flow was favorable” last time. Training is “no concern despite falling behind,” but the stronger competition will be a test.JL Carrier (3)Won on debut. Stable “recognizes his talent” but questions how he’ll handle “stronger opponents and the long straight at Tokyo.”Alde Top Gun (4)Finished 4th in the Platanus Sho. Stable sees the “1-furlong cutback as a positive” and hopes for a rebound at the shorter distance.(FR) Antymist (13)Won after switching to dirt. However, the stable is concerned about his temperament, noting he “tends to fight the bit even at 1000m,” so “settling will be key with the distance extension.”Reflex (16)The team felt the “shorter distance was good” last time. They believe “if he gets a smooth run, he’s not far off.”

Kizugawa Tokubetsu 2025 (Kyoto 9R, Turf 1600m)

Race Outlook: Reliable “Barrel Turn” vs. High-Potential “Fairy Like”

As the predicted odds suggest, this 1-win class race at Kyoto Turf 1600m is shaping up to be a two-horse race between Barrel Turn and Fairy Like. This analysis is based entirely on the provided expert picks, training data, stable comments, and post-race interviews.

The Two-Horse Showdown: A Data-Driven Difference in Reliability

Barrel Turn (No. 8)
The favorite with predicted odds of 2.1. His solid support is evident, with all four experts marking him “○”. The biggest reason to rate him highly is that the data clearly shows his 2nd place finish last time was due to “interference.” The stable explicitly stated, “he was blocked in the straight last race.” The jockey’s interview confirms this: “from the last 400m, a path never opened up, so it wasn’t a smooth run.” This objectively shows he couldn’t perform to his full potential. With the stable commenting they’ve “maintained his condition from last race,” his workout brief is “improved after one run,” and his condition arrow is “” (improving), he is likely to enter this race in even better shape. A horse that was unable to show its full ability, now returning in better condition in the same class, represents the most reliable betting pattern.

Fairy Like (No. 2)
The second favorite with odds of 2.5. She has garnered three “◎” marks from experts, indicating high expectations for her explosive potential. However, despite this high rating, the stable’s comments come with clear “conditions.” They state, “she can use her kick if she settles” and “if the race flow suits her style.” The jockey also noted after her 2nd place finish, “She settled well, and because of that, she had a great finishing kick.” This suggests her performance is heavily dependent on “settling.” Her success hinges on an internal factor (temperament), whereas Barrel Turn’s loss was due to an external factor (traffic). This makes Barrel Turn the more reliable choice.

Third Contender: “Zendan Hayabusa” with an Equipment Change

Zendan Hayabusa (No. 3)
The third choice with odds of 5.9 and expert picks of “▲▲▲”. The key point for this horse is the performance boost expected from an “equipment change” revealed by the stable. They identified a clear weakness: “he leans inward when under pressure.” To counter this, they have applied a specific solution: “fitting a cheek piece on the right side.” His last run (3rd place) was achieved while still having this issue. If the equipment corrects this flaw, his performance could improve significantly, giving him a real chance to upset the top two. His training is also positive, “maintaining good form” (), making him a worthy contender.

Kizugawa Tokubetsu: Key Contender Data

Horse Name (No.)Predicted OddsExpert Picks (M/N/H/M)Training Eval. (Brief/Arrow)Key Comments (Stable/Last Race)
Barrel Turn (8)2.1○ / ○ / ○ / ○Improved after one run ()“Blocked in the straight last race” (Stable). Clear reason for loss.
Fairy Like (2)2.5◎ / ◎ / ◎ / ▲Training steadily ()“Can use her kick if she settles” (Stable). Temperament is key.
Zendan Hayabusa (3)5.9▲ / ▲ / ▲ / △Maintaining good form ()“Fitting a cheek piece on the right side (for leaning)” (Stable). Improvement expected.
Lycanthrope (4)7.2– / – / – / ◎Light movement ()“Maintaining condition,” “Ability is top-class” (Stable).
Reve Brilliant (5)9.3△ / △ / – / –Training diligently ()“Has enough ability for the 2-win class” (Stable).

Nihonmatsu Tokubetsu 2025 (Fukushima 9R, Turf 1800m)

Race Outlook: Talented Horses Off a Layoff vs. Race-Fit Dark Horses

The key to this 1-win class race at Fukushima Turf 1800m is that the two favorites, Ho O Chocolat and Win Shargas, are both returning from a layoff. The core of the prediction lies in assessing their fitness levels against dark horses who benefit from recent race experience or front-running tactics.

Comparing the Two Favorites Returning from a Layoff

Ho O Chocolat (No. 12)
The favorite with odds of 3.3 and strong expert support (“◎○◎”). However, the data presents a “contradiction” that requires careful analysis. The stable’s comments are cautious. The reason for the layoff was a “fracture,” and they state, “he’s naturally a bit soft” and “it feels like we just managed to get him ready in time,” implying he may not be at 100%. On the other hand, they also note, “he’s a talented horse who won his debut against strong competition.” In contrast to the stable’s cautious tone, his training evaluation is excellent: “good condition” with a condition arrow of “” (improving). The expert picks (◎) likely prioritize his talent and impressive training, but the stable’s comments introduce a level of uncertainty, making him a high-risk, high-reward prospect.

Win Shargas (No. 4)
The second favorite at 3.5 odds with solid expert ratings (“○▲○”). Compared to Ho O Chocolat, he appears to be a more reliable choice off a layoff. The reason was a “refresh,” which is less severe than a fracture. The stable is positive, stating his “condition is not bad.” His training evaluation, “regaining top form” with an arrow of “” (improving), suggests he is close to peak fitness. Before his break in July, it was reported that “the horse has improved,” indicating growth. He may be the more trustworthy of the two.

Dark Horses Emerging from Race Flow and Condition

La Cornetta (No. 10)
The third favorite at 4.3 odds. The key point for her is the clear reason for her 8th place finish last time. The stable noted, “she was returning from a break and was slow out of the gate,” suggesting strong potential for improvement in her second race back. Her workout brief is “good late speed” with an arrow of “” (maintaining good form), showing no decline in condition.

Meavia (No. 9)
The fourth favorite at 6.4 odds. Her strength is her established racing style. The stable commented, “she ran well to finish 3rd by setting the pace last time” and “if she can run a similar race, she has a chance.” The jockey confirmed this, saying, “we were able to set our own pace; we ran the race we wanted to.” Having a proven strategy is a major advantage. If the two favorites off a layoff are hesitant, she could gain a tactical advantage.

Nihonmatsu Tokubetsu: Key Contender Data

Horse Name (No.)Predicted OddsExpert Picks (CPU/YK/A/M/M)Training Eval. (Brief/Arrow)Key Comments (Stable/Last Race)
Ho O Chocolat (12)3.3◎ / ○ / – / ◎ / ※Good condition ()“Returning from fracture,” “just managed to get him ready,” but has high potential.
Win Shargas (4)3.5○ / ▲ / – / ○ / ※Regaining top form ()“Returning from refresh,” “targeting a suitable race.”
La Cornetta (10)4.3– / – / ○ / ▲ / ※Good late speed ()“Slow from the gate last time after a break.” Second race back.
Meavia (9)6.4△ / – / ◎ / △ / ※Sharp movement ()“Finished 3rd by setting the pace,” “if she can run a similar race.”
Daisy (5)8.5▲ / ◎ / △ / △ / ※Maintaining good spirits ()“Showing more tenacity recently,” “smaller tracks suit her better.”

Analysis of Other Runners

Daisy (5)Odds of 8.5. Stable comments “showing more tenacity recently” and “smaller tracks suit her better” suggest she is well-suited for the Fukushima course.Lucky Dance (3)Stable notes he has “developed early speed.” His 5th place finish last time was not bad, as he “managed to take the lead and showed some good things.”Nihonpiro Holiday (8)Stable believes her last run was “unlucky as she was blocked in the straight.” They expect improvement “in a fillies-only race.”

Conclusion and Final Predictions

Today’s Analysis Summary

  • Okizarisu Sho: A clash between Satono Voyage, winner with a “course record,” and Ask Kentucky, who is on the rise () after dominant wins. Don’t overlook the momentum of Magic Cookie (), who was transformed by new equipment.
  • Kizugawa Tokubetsu: The favorite Barrel Turn is highly reliable, with a clear excuse for his last loss (“blocked in the straight”) and improving condition (). His rival Fairy Like‘s performance depends entirely on “settling.” Zendan Hayabusa, with an equipment change to correct a flaw, could be the key to breaking up the top two.
  • Nihonmatsu Tokubetsu: The focus is on the fitness of two talented horses off a layoff: Ho O Chocolat () returning from a “fracture” and Win Shargas () after a “refresh.” Watch out for front-runner Meavia and La Cornetta in her second race back.

For the final conclusions based on this data analysis, including our recommended bets, please visit the link below.View Final Predictions & Recommended Bets

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ヤナシ社長(旧:生成系競馬予想)

データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。