Expert Analysis for …
An in-depth analysis of top contenders with the latest data for this week’s key races at Tokyo, Kyoto, and Fukushima. We break down training reports and stable comments to give you the edge.
This is a traditional long-distance handicap race (GII). The unique 2500m turf course at Tokyo Racecourse is its main feature. With a long straight after the start and wide, sweeping turns, it appears to be a test of stamina, but it also demands a burst of speed in the final 3 furlongs. The biggest factor is the “handicap.” Osaka Hai (GI) winner Rousham Park carries a heavy 59.5kg, and Nikkei Sho (GII) winner Struve carries 59kg. In contrast, the 4-year-old filly Ho O Elite, who ran well in the Meguro Kinen (GII), carries 55.5kg, and the up-and-coming Stinger Glass carries 57kg. Assessing how this weight difference will affect the race is crucial.
Here, we’ll verify the reliability of the projected top contenders based on training data and stable comments.
The 4-year-old colt Stinger Glass won the Sapporo Nikkei Sho in his last start and, with C. Lemaire aboard, is expected to be the favorite (3.4 odds). However, the data reveals a cautious stance from his camp, contrary to his popularity. The detailed training analysis notes a clear concern: “Compared to his excellent condition before his last race, his balance is a bit off.” Furthermore, assistant trainer Ota commented, “He hasn’t run well at Tokyo, so course suitability will be key,” questioning his aptitude for the venue. A significant gap exists between his popularity and the camp’s objective assessment, making his reliability as the top favorite questionable.
In stark contrast to Stinger Glass, the 4-year-old filly Ho O Elite (projected #2, 4.2 odds) has all data points aligning positively. Trainer Toshimi Tajima stated, “We’ve been aiming for this race, and everything is going smoothly. There are no concerns.” He added, “I have high hopes for her again on this course where she ran well in the Meguro Kinen,” showing absolute confidence in her “Tokyo course suitability,” the very point of concern for Stinger Glass. Training data supports these comments, suggesting she will arrive in peak condition. Returning to a proven course with a favorable handicap of 55.5kg, she has very few weaknesses according to the data.
The evaluation of the 4-year-old colt Dimaisakid (projected #3, 5.3 odds) hinges on interpreting his characteristic “sluggishness.” Trainer Hideaki Shimizu acknowledged this, saying, “He can be a bit dull in his workouts,” but then clearly dismissed stamina concerns by stating, “The distance extension is not a problem.” This “sluggishness” (slow response) would be fatal in a sprint, but in a 2500m long-distance race, it could translate into a strength: “has stamina and doesn’t tire.” With the camp explicitly stating “distance extension is OK,” it’s highly likely this trait is a sign of abundant stamina.
Rousham Park (Top Handicap) Struggles: While he has the best record, he carries the top weight of 59.5kg. Additionally, extremely negative comments from the stable like “his throat condition hasn’t dramatically improved” and “things haven’t gone as planned” warrant a harsh evaluation.
Dark Horse Struve (Hori Stable) is Ready: Though projected as the 7th favorite, his camp’s readiness far surpasses that of the top contenders. Trainer Hori has addressed every aspect—rotation, condition, equipment changes, and suitability—and is confident in his preparation. Returning to his favored Tokyo course, he cannot be overlooked.
Nishino Revenant (On the Rise) has Momentum: His victory in the October Stakes was genuine, and he has received top marks in training. Trainer Hiroshi Uehara is also confident in his distance suitability, stating, “He’s always been a horse that excels at longer distances.” He is a strong candidate.
| Horse Name | Projected Rank | Training Evaluation | Core Stable Comment | Course Suitability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stinger Glass | 1st | “Good spirit despite layoff” but “balance is a bit off” | “Course suitability will be key” | Concern |
| Ho O Elite | 2nd | “Lively movement ↗”, “Also focused” | “There are no concerns” | ◎ (Ran well in Meguro Kinen) |
| Dimaisakid | 3rd | “Showed sluggishness at the 4th corner, but powerful at the finish” | “Sluggish”, “Distance extension is not a problem” | ○ (Stamina type) |
| Struve | 7th | “Good condition”, “Running willingly” | “Fully prepared”, “This course is also good” | ◎ |
| Nishino Revenant | 4th | “Improved further after win ↗”, “Excellent physical and mental state” | “He’s a horse that excels at longer distances” | ◎ |
| Rousham Park | 6th | (No training analysis) | “Throat condition hasn’t improved”, “Things haven’t gone as planned” | ? (Condition concerns) |
This dirt graded race (GIII) serves as a prep for the Champions Cup (G1). The Kyoto Dirt 1800m course is unique, with a downhill slope from the third corner to the final straight, demanding sustained speed once a horse gets going.
Outrange (2nd in Teio Sho) on “Plan B”: With a second-place finish in his last race, the Teio Sho, he is the projected favorite. However, stable comments suggest this is a “Plan B” entry after being excluded from the JBC Classic. The training analysis notes, “He felt a bit stiff this week,” raising doubts about his absolute reliability due to both his condition and race rotation.
Double Heart Bond (Filly) in “Optimal Conditions”: From the same stable as Outrange, this filly has very strong data. The camp has expressed clear confidence: “Her best distance is 1800 meters,” and “She should be competitive against the colts.” Her training evaluation is high, and the shorter distance from her last race is a positive change. With a favorable weight of 55kg, her reliability on paper surpasses the favorite’s.
Ramjet (Returning from Korea) is “Re-educated”: This is his first race back after finishing 3rd in an expedition to Korea. The team has focused on correcting his gate issues, and training reports confirm his recovery. Continuing with blinkers and mentally refreshed, he is poised to show his G1-level ability if he can maintain focus.
Perriere (Elm S Winner) faces a “Distance Wall”: Although he won the Elm Stakes last time, his camp is concerned about the extension to 1800m, commenting, “It feels a bit long for him.” He is in peak condition, and the key question is whether his fitness can overcome the 100m distance concern.
Shigeru Shogun (Change in Tactics) shows Potential: In his last race, he mastered a “closing style” of running, moving away from his usual front-running tactics. This increased versatility could allow him to compete effectively in this tougher graded race.
This is an open special race that kicks off the Fukushima race meet. As several stable comments emphasize, the “opening week” track condition at Fukushima’s 1200m turf course is known to have a strong bias favoring front-runners, especially those drawn in inside gates.
The pace of this race will be dictated by Aim in Life. His camp has declared a clear front-running strategy: “We’re just going to go for it again” and “We’ll claim the lead.” Meanwhile, Cufasil‘s camp is also focused on a forward position, stating, “It’s opening week, so we want to be right on the pace,” even equipping him with blinkers. When multiple horses are intent on leading, the pace can intensify, creating a high-speed race despite the fresh track, which could open up opportunities for closers.
Rapier (Fukushima Specialist): The projected favorite, a 3-year-old. Although he was soundly beaten in the G1 Keeneland Cup, his camp is confident about the drop in class and his suitability for the Fukushima course, where he has won before. His reliability on paper is the highest.
Birth Cry (Bad Luck Last Race): His poor finish last time can be disregarded as it was due to an in-race injury (accident). His camp asserts, “In an open special, his ability is top-class,” and a comeback is almost certain.
Corazon Beat (Shorter Distance): The 1000m race last time was unsuitable. His camp commented, “Back at 1200 meters, she should be competitive.” Her training has been excellent, and a strong rebound is expected at her preferred distance.
| Horse Name | Last Race Finish | Reason for Loss (Data-based) | Stable’s Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rapier | 11th (Keeneland C) | G1 class was too tough, slightly overweight | “In an open special…”, “He has won at Fukushima” |
| Corazon Beat | 16th (Ibis SD) | Unsuited for 1000m | “Should be competitive back at 1200m” |
| Birth Cry | 12th (UHB Sho) | In-race injury (bleeding) | “If he runs a clean race, his ability is top-class” |
| Cufasil | 12th (Keeneland C) | G1 class was too tough, poor start | “With blinkers, he’ll be on the pace from the start” |
In this article, we analyzed the forecasting points for the Copa República Argentina, Miyako Stakes, and Michinoku Stakes based on training data and stable comments.
For our final conclusions and selections (◎○▲…) based on this detailed data analysis, please visit the link below.