Mile Championship (G1) & Shimotsuki Stakes (OP)
November 23, 2025
Key Takeaways
- Shimotsuki Stakes: Wayward Act’s exceptional training time of “5F 63.2 seconds” signals G1 potential in an Open class race.
- Mile Championship: Soul Rush shows “ultimate sharpness” with a blistering “last 1F 10.9 seconds,” indicating peak condition.
- Jantar Mantar: The 3-year-old’s “otherworldly improvement” makes him a formidable challenger against seasoned horses.
Table of Contents
- Two Key Races Shaping the G1 Landscape
- Shimotsuki Stakes (OP) 2025 Forecast
- Mile Championship (G1) 2025 Forecast
- November 23 Undercard Picks
- Conclusion and Strategy
1. 2025 Autumn: Two Key Races Shaping the G1 Landscape
On November 23, 2025, the Japan Racing Association (JRA) will host a significant day in the autumn racing season. Kyoto Racecourse will stage the “42nd Mile Championship (G1),” the pinnacle of the mile division, while Tokyo Racecourse will host the “Shimotsuki Stakes (OP),” a race for top dirt horses. These two events are more than just graded stakes and open races; they are crucial tests that will determine the power dynamics in their respective divisions.
The key to victory in horse racing lies in the fusion of “static data” (past performance) and “dynamic data” (recent training progress). Subtle signals such as changes in training times, comments from stable staff, and equipment modifications often hold the secrets to race outcomes. This article presents a fact-based analysis, excluding speculation, based on extensive research from the past two weeks.
2. Shimotsuki Stakes (OP) 2025 Forecast
The Tokyo Dirt 1400m course is known for being a demanding track that tests a horse’s ability to handle the turf start, sprint on the long straight, and possess stamina. In this year’s Shimotsuki Stakes, one horse is poised to demonstrate “otherworldly potential.”
Wayward Act: The Shock of “78.4 Seconds”
Wayward Act (Miho Training Center, Trainer: Hiroyasu Tanaka) is the standout contender in this race and has produced overwhelming training data. Despite returning from a long layoff, which would normally warrant a discount, the data presented here overturns conventional wisdom.
| Date | Course | Condition | 5F | 4F | 3F | 1F | Gallop | Evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best Time | MiW | Good | 78.4 | 63.2 | 49.7 | 11.2 | Easy | Good condition despite layoff |
| Nov 13 (Thu) | MiS | Good | 60.2 | 44.3 | 28.7 | 14.1 | Easy | Smooth training |
| Nov 16 (Sun) | MiS | Good | 51.7 | 37.6 | 24.7 | 12.3 | Easy | Confirmed acceleration |
| Nov 19 (Wed) | MiW | Good | 82.3 | 67.1 | 52.5 | 11.7 | Easy | Perfect condition |
The most notable time is the 5 furlongs in 63.2 seconds and the final furlong in 11.2 seconds on the Miho Wood course. These are times typically recorded by G1-level older horses pushed to their limit. The fact that Wayward Act achieved this while running “easy” suggests his cardiovascular capacity exceeds the limitations of his current class.
“The time from one week prior was exceptionally fast. He is in perfect condition.”— Trainer Hiroyasu Tanaka
Waiwai Legend: Transformation Through Equipment Change
Waiwai Legend (Ritto Training Center, Trainer: Masahiro Maekawa) emerges as a strong challenger to Wayward Act. The comment “improved by equipment change” is a significant signal. Equipment like blinkers can enhance a racehorse’s focus and act as a catalyst for ability development. The stable comments also state, “His condition is stable with the same training method,” indicating good form. If his existing ability is enhanced by increased focus from the equipment, he has a strong chance of competing for a top position.
Shimotsuki Stakes Dark Horses
- Full Moon: Easily marking sub-52 second times on the uphill track, his condition is stable. Trainer Hidetaka Hamada expressed confidence, stating, “Tokyo’s 1400m is his specialty.”
- Marumori Special: Showed sharp acceleration with a final furlong of 11.4 seconds in his most recent CW course workout. Trainer Hideyuki Ohashi emphasized potential improvement.
- Reddington: While his times are not spectacular, he showed a sharp move with a final furlong of 12.0 seconds on the uphill track. The Tokyo course and distance reduction suit him well.
3. Mile Championship (G1) 2025 Forecast
The Mile Championship, held on the Kyoto turf 1600m (outer course), hinges on a horse’s ability to accelerate downhill and maintain speed on the flat straight. While there is no dominant favorite, training data reveals some horses performing exceptionally well.
Soul Rush: CW “10.9 Seconds” Signals Completion
Soul Rush (Ritto Training Center, Trainer: Katsumi Ikezoe), aiming for his first G1 title, has shown a superb training progression, with his workout one week prior being particularly outstanding.
| Date | Course | Condition | 6F | 5F | 4F | 3F | 1F | Gallop | Evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13 (Thu) | KuCW | Good | 80.1 | 64.8 | 49.9 | 35.4 | 10.9 | Pushed | Excellent stretch |
| Nov 20 (Thu) | KuS | Good | – | – | 51.3 | 37.0 | 12.4 | Easy | Condition set |
The final furlong time of 10.9 seconds on the Ritto CW course is an extremely rare record. Achieving this acceleration within a fast overall time is proof that Soul Rush is in the best condition of his career. The balanced training approach is a winning pattern for Trainer Ikezoe’s stable.
Jantar Mantar: Connections Speak of “Otherworldly Improvement”
Jantar Mantar (Ritto Training Center, Trainer: Hidetaka Takano), the three-year-old miler champion, is notable for the high level of enthusiasm from his connections. The improvement after his prep race is evident, and considering the weight advantage against older horses, he is a top contender alongside Soul Rush.
“His condition is completely different from his previous race. He is in superb form.”— Trainer Hidetaka Takano
Ascoli Piceno: Perfect Condition with Ritto Stay
Ascoli Piceno (Miho Training Center, Trainer: Kazuhiro Kuroiwa), an Eastern-based horse, has undergone a “Ritto Study Abroad” program, staying at the Ritto Training Center to prepare. This strategy avoids the risks of long-distance transport and ensures the horse is in perfect condition for the race.
| Date | Course | Condition | 6F | 5F | 4F | 3F | 1F | Gallop | Companion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19 (Wed) | KuCW | Good | 96.1 | 80.4 | 65.7 | 50.9 | 11.2 | Strong | Finished Ahead |
In her final workout, she finished ahead of Blue Maestro, demonstrating her competitive spirit. The final furlong of 11.2 seconds on the CW course indicates her ability to adapt to Kyoto’s fast track.
Doc Lands: Unknown Assassin from Overseas
Doc Lands (Trainer: Eustace), an overseas contender, faces the challenge of adapting to Japan’s fast track. However, his recent workout on the Kyoto turf course is helping to alleviate these concerns. On November 20, he recorded times of 78.2 – 61.9 – 47.8 – 35.6 – 11.6 seconds while running easy. Achieving these times in an unfamiliar environment is proof of his high adaptability.
Mile CS Dark Horses
- Tosshin Macao: Recorded a final furlong of 11.0 seconds on the Miho Wood course. His current form suggests he might overcome the mile distance.
- Off Trail: Showed good form with a final furlong of 11.8 seconds on the uphill track, indicating signs of full maturity.
- Gaia Force: Maintains good condition with light footwork. Trainer Haruki Sugiyama is confident in his suitability for the Kyoto course.
4. November 23 Undercard Picks
Beyond the main races, the following promising horses are recommended based on their training data:
Tokyo Race 1 (2yo Maiden): Big Chan & Road Strider
Tokyo Race 2 (2yo Maiden): Hasty Heart
Tokyo Race 9 (Akamatsu Sho): Love Now
Kyoto Race 10 (Legend Trainer Cup): Jordy’s Marron
5. Conclusion and Strategy
The JRA races on November 23, 2025, across both Tokyo and Kyoto, feature horses with clear backing from their training data. The investment strategy for each race is summarized below.
Shimotsuki Stakes Conclusion
Recommended Anchor: Wayward Act
The training times of “5F 63.2 seconds” and “last 1F 11.2 seconds” are proof of ability beyond the Open class. Despite a long layoff, the consistency between stable comments and data is high, making him extremely reliable. For the second choice, Waiwai Legend with his equipment change and Full Moon, a Tokyo specialist, are recommended.
Mile Championship Conclusion
Recommended Anchor: Soul Rush
The “last 1F 10.9 seconds” on the Ritto CW course is the most destructive time among the participants. He is undoubtedly in peak condition for his G1 bid and is the most reliable anchor. Jantar Mantar, showing “otherworldly improvement,” is the dark horse contender. The focus will be on how Ascoli Piceno and Doc Lands contend with these two.
Betting Strategy Guidelines
For the day’s strategy, a plan to secure funds reliably in the morning races at Tokyo (Race 1: Big Chan, Race 2: Hasty Heart) and then carry that over to the afternoon main races is recommended. Particularly, Wayward Act in the Shimotsuki Stakes is considered to be in a condition worth betting heavily on, depending on the day’s win odds. While there are no guarantees in horse racing, objective data does not lie. We hope this analysis contributes to your successful betting.
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