This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the Tokyo Racecourse on November 23, 2025, utilizing AI prediction models and various data points to identify “high expected value” horses that the market may be undervaluing.
- Key Takeaways
- Introduction: Investment Strategy and Market Distortions in Late Autumn Tokyo Racing
- Race 1: 2-Year-Old Maiden (Dirt 1300m) Analysis
- Race 2: 2-Year-Old Maiden (Turf 1800m) Analysis
- Race 4: 2-Year-Old Newcomer (Dirt 1600m) Analysis
- Race 6: 3-Year-Old and Up 1 Win Class (Turf 1600m) Analysis
- Race 8: 3-Year-Old and Up 2 Win Class Analysis
- Race 10: Akiiro Stakes (3-Year-Old and Up 3 Win Class – Turf 1600m) Analysis
- Race 11: Shimotsuki Stakes (OP – Dirt 1400m) Analysis
- Race 12: 3-Year-Old and Up 2 Win Class (Turf 1400m) Analysis
- Conclusion: Investment Portfolio for November 23, 2025
- Disclaimer
Key Takeaways
- High Expected Value Horses: Identified by discrepancies between AI predictions and market odds.
- Top Recommendation: Alale Tabashir (Race 8) is highly rated due to expected improvement with blinker application.
- Dark Horses: Big Chan (Race 1) and Cobra Twist (Race 1) are recommended for their potential to perform well with condition changes.
- Reliable Core Selections: Lys Legendaire (Race 2) and Gold Star (Race 12) are identified as strong contenders based on data.
- Training Data Insights: The report emphasizes identifying horses showing positive signs in their training regimens.
- Investment Strategy: A multi-faceted approach is proposed, combining high-risk/high-return bets on horses with potential for transformation, stable returns from strong contenders, and middle-risk/high-return bets on horses showing clear training signals.
Introduction: Investment Strategy and Market Distortions in Late Autumn Tokyo Racing
The Tokyo Racecourse on November 23, 2025, the fifth day of the fifth Tokyo meeting, is filled with anticipation ahead of Japan Cup week. While the track conditions are becoming tougher, the course’s demand for speed and explosive power remains. This report goes beyond simple predictions, integrating training data, pedigree, stable comments, and AI models to uncover “true ability horses” undervalued by the market. Special attention is given to Alale Tabashir, expected to transform with blinkers, and Big Chan, who may improve significantly with a change in conditions. The analysis delves into the logical reasoning behind each recommendation, covering both fundamental ability and technical aspects (training and condition).
Race 1: 2-Year-Old Maiden (Dirt 1300m) Analysis
This opening race on the challenging 1300m dirt track requires both early speed and stamina. The AI model has identified several “high expected value” contenders.
Big Chan (Big Chan)
Predicted Popularity: 12th favorite
AI Main Race Index: 32
Value for Money: 321%
Rationale: Despite being a 12th favorite, Big Chan shows an exceptional 321% value. The market overlooks its potential due to a poor previous performance on turf. However, its pedigree (Sire: Big Arthur, known for speed; Dam’s Sire: Matsurida Gogh, with power and stamina) suggests suitability for dirt. Trainer Eiichi Yano anticipates improvement on dirt.
Training Diagnosis: Showing steady improvement (“良化”). A strong workout on November 19th on the B-track (54.7s – 40.1s – 25.7s – 12.5s, strong effort) indicates a positive change. Previous workout on woodchip course also showed sharp acceleration.
Lord Stradale (Lord Stradale)
Predicted Popularity: 8th favorite
AI Main Race Index: 32
Value for Money: 206%
Rationale: A 206% value rating is attributed to the combination of a distance reduction and intensified training. Trainer H. Homma believes the shorter distance will suit the horse’s forward-going nature. The pedigree (Sire: Lord Kanaloa x Dam’s Sire: Tiznow) suggests speed and stamina suitable for dirt.
Training Diagnosis: A strong workout on November 19th on the B-course (83.5s – 67.5s – 52.5s – 38.4s – 11.9s, pushed hard) indicates the stable is pushing for a strong performance.
Cobra Twist (Cobra Twist)
Predicted Popularity: 5th favorite
AI Main Race Index: 28
Value for Money: 321%
Rationale: Shares the highest value rating (321%) with Big Chan. Its pedigree (Sire: Happy Sprint, Dam’s Sire: Pyro) indicates strong dirt suitability. Previous losses are attributed to being bothered by dirt. Trainer I. Ishikuri believes the horse can perform well if it can run smoothly without being bothered by dirt.
Other Promising Horses:
- #3 Heasty Heart (◎): Solid performance in maiden race (3rd), showing improvement after a break. Workout on Nov 19th ahead of older horses.
- #14 Majestella (○): Moving from turf (3rd in maiden) to dirt. Trainer confident about dirt suitability. Sire:ディーマジェスティ.
- #16 Stark (▲): Wide draw may be advantageous, preventing being bothered by dirt. Workout time of 51.8s on B-track is notable.
Race 2: 2-Year-Old Maiden (Turf 1800m) Analysis
This turf race features a standout contender and potential for upsets.
Lys Legendaire (Lys Legendaire)
Predicted Popularity: 1st favorite
AI Main Race Index: 86 (Top-tier for the day)
Value for Money: 157%
Rationale: An index of 86 and a value of 157% suggest a high probability of winning, even as the favorite. Pedigree (Sire: Epiphaneia x Dam’s Sire: Deep Impact) is ideal for Tokyo’s 1800m turf. Finished 2nd in a previous Tokyo race. Jockey L. Lemaire expects a win.
Training Diagnosis: Excellent condition. Workout on November 19th on woodchip course (54.1kg horse, 83.8s – 66.5s – 51.7s – 37.2s – 11.5s, handily) shows exceptional acceleration. Trainer T. Kurita notes improvement in back and loins, and increased mental focus.
Sumikko Disco (Sumikko Disco)
Predicted Popularity: 6th favorite
AI Main Race Index: 20
Value for Money: 187%
Rationale: Potential dark horse after a rest. A workout on November 12th on woodchip course (81.3s – 64.9s – 50.9s – 36.9s – 11.3s, handily) recorded a time comparable to older open-class horses, indicating high latent speed. The 6th favorite status is considered an undervaluation.
Race 4: 2-Year-Old Newcomer (Dirt 1600m) Analysis
This newcomer race relies heavily on pedigree and training. Two horses with strong dirt potential and good preparation are highlighted.
Jorvik (Jorvik)
Predicted Popularity: 4th favorite
AI Main Race Index: 33
Value for Money: 156%
Rationale: Sire Nadal (USA) is a powerful and speedy American sire with a strong record in dirt maiden races. Dam’s sire Pulpit adds stamina. The horse is expected to have the engine for Tokyo’s 1600m dirt.
Training Diagnosis: Agile movements observed in a workout on November 19th on woodchip course (83.2s – 67.5s – 53.0s – 37.9s – 11.8s, handily). Trainer I. Inagaki is confident about its readiness.
Shonan Safira (Shonan Safira)
Predicted Popularity: 4th favorite
AI Main Race Index: 19
Value for Money: 240%
Rationale: Pedigree (Sire: Kizuna x Dam’s Sire: Tapit) is known for producing top performers on both turf and dirt. Trainer T. Takahashi notes significant improvement in its movements after a workout on November 19th. The high value suggests the market hasn’t fully priced in its recent growth.
Race 6: 3-Year-Old and Up 1 Win Class (Turf 1600m) Analysis
This race is expected to be competitive, with course suitability being a key factor.
Quatre Epices (Quatre Epices)
Predicted Popularity: 2nd favorite
AI Main Race Index: 35
Value for Money: 244%
Rationale: Pedigree (Sire: Kizuna, Dam’s Sire: Sageburg) is well-suited for the explosive finish required on Tokyo’s long straight. A previous 15th place finish at Nakayama is attributed to the course and race development, not lack of ability.
Training Diagnosis: Workout on November 19th on woodchip course (84.6s – 11.7s) showed “lively movements.” Trainer T. Kurita notes improvement in its mental state, suggesting a reduction in previous fragility. The high value despite being the second favorite indicates a potential undervaluation due to the previous poor performance.
Race 8: 3-Year-Old and Up 2 Win Class Analysis
Alale Tabashir in this race is identified as having the highest investment value of the day, with an AI predicted recovery expectation of 342%.
Alale Tabashir (Alale Tabashir)
Predicted Popularity: 2nd favorite
AI Main Race Index: 51
Value for Money: 342% (Highest of the day)
Rationale: The primary reason for its high rating is the expected dramatic improvement from wearing blinkers. Assistant trainer K. Koyama of the Nemoto stable states that blinkers will address the horse’s sluggishness in the crucial stages, enhancing its chances. Previous races showed potential but a lack of responsiveness.
Training Diagnosis: Blinkers are reported to be highly effective (“B効果てき面”). A workout on November 19th on woodchip course (82.4s – 66.1s – 51.2s – 36.9s – 11.9s, handily) showed sustained focus and powerful strides, indicating a significant change. The current 2nd favorite status presents a prime opportunity for investment as a single or as a core selection.
Race 10: Akiiro Stakes (3-Year-Old and Up 3 Win Class – Turf 1600m) Analysis
This race requires sharp acceleration.
Ask Sexy More (Ask Sexy More)
Predicted Popularity: 4th favorite
AI Main Race Index: 14
Value for Money: 206%
Rationale: Despite being in a higher class, it shows a 206% value. Its key strength is “sharpness,” as noted in training reports. A workout on November 19th on woodchip course (11.5s for the final furlong) and trainer Y. Fukunaga’s comment about its “consistently sharp finish” suggest it has the speed for Tokyo’s mile. It could excel if the leading horses engage in a tactical battle.
Race 11: Shimotsuki Stakes (OP – Dirt 1400m) Analysis
This main race features specialists in dirt 1400m. The AI recommends a horse with both stability and speed.
Salvatore (Salvatore)
Predicted Popularity: 4th favorite
AI Main Race Index: 19
Value for Money: 286%
Rationale: The recommendation is based on objective “time” data. Its previous winning time was excellent, placing it among the top contenders in terms of speed. The 286% value indicates that its 4th favorite status undervalues its true ability.
Training Diagnosis: Maintaining good form. A workout on November 19th on woodchip course (82.4s – 11.9s, handily) shows “continued good condition.” Its ability to achieve good times without excessive effort, and its consistent performance across different track conditions, are strengths. Trainer R. Wada manages the horse, which is believed to be in its prime.
Race 12: 3-Year-Old and Up 2 Win Class (Turf 1400m) Analysis
The final race of the day requires consideration of fatigue and track conditions. A reliable core selection is identified.
Gold Star (Gold Star)
Predicted Popularity: 1st favorite
AI Main Race Index: 31
Value for Money: 155%
Rationale: The strongest recommendation comes from its training partner: a G1 contender, Houou Biscuits. Gold Star, running handily, finished 0.1 seconds ahead of the stronger horse (83.2s – 11.7s). This level of performance in a 2 Win Class race is exceptional. Trainer T. Okumura notes its “stable finishing speed,” making it a reliable choice for the final race. The 155% value suggests it’s a good bet for both win and place bets, and as a core selection.
Conclusion: Investment Portfolio for November 23, 2025
The investment strategy for the Tokyo Racecourse on November 23, 2025, is built on three pillars:
1. Targeting “Transformation” (High Risk, High Return):
Actively targeting Alale Tabashir (Race 8) for its expected awakening with blinkers, and Big Chan (Race 1) and Cobra Twist (Race 1) for their potential to improve with condition changes. These horses are analyzed as having a high probability of delivering returns exceeding their odds.
2. Investing in “Absolute Champions” (Low Risk, Stable Return):
Lys Legendaire (Race 2) and Gold Star (Race 12) are considered the “core” of the day’s investments due to their lack of weaknesses in training, pedigree, and past performance.
3. Not Missing “Training” Signals (Middle Risk, High Return):
Focusing on horses like Sumikko Disco (Race 2) that show clear “buy signals” in their training progress, such as impressive workout times.
The report concludes by expressing anticipation that the recommended horses will perform well on the Tokyo straight, leading to profitable outcomes, based on the convergence of data, on-site observations, and AI calculations.
Disclaimer
This report is for informational purposes only and does not guarantee betting results. All horse betting is undertaken at the individual’s own risk.
english
english
english
english
english
english