Expert Analysis for November 16, 2025
November 16, 2025 / Updated: November 16, 2025
A curated selection of 12 horses to watch at Kyoto Racecourse on November 16, 2025. From top contenders to dark horses in major races like the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup and the Kikugusho, we analyze each based on expert trackwork reports and stable comments. Use our ‘Value for Money’ rating to find reliable picks and high-potential longshots from a professional journalist’s perspective.
- Key Takeaways
- Kyoto 1R: 2-Year-Old Maiden (Dirt 1400m) – Argyll Shore
- Kyoto 2R: 2-Year-Old Maiden (Dirt 1200m) – Kanekome Bright
- Kyoto 3R: 2-Year-Old Maiden (芝1600m) – Super Busy
- Kyoto 4R: 2-Year-Old Maiden (Dirt 1800m) – Americanism
- Kyoto 5R: 2-Year-Old Maiden (芝2000m) – Jun Primero
- Kyoto 6R: 3-Year-Olds & Up, 1-Win Class (Dirt 1200m) – Cafe Noir
- Kyoto 7R: 3-Year-Olds & Up, 2-Win Class (Dirt 1200m) – Kurino Glory
- Kyoto 8R: 3-Year-Olds & Up, 2-Win Class (芝1400m) – Holy Blossom
- Kyoto 9R: Kikugusho (芝2000m) – Kikkobello
- Kyoto 10R: Amanohashidate S (Dirt 1800m) – Tripolitania
- Kyoto 11R: Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1) (芝2200m) – Lilac
- Kyoto 12R: Doncaster Cup (芝1800m) – Gaiamente
Key Takeaways
- 12 top horses for Nov 16 at Kyoto, selected based on professional trackwork reports and stable comments.
- Kikkobello in the Kikugusho is a solid favorite with a 64% Pro Favorite Index.
- Featuring high-value longshots like Kurino Glory with a staggering 440% ‘Value for Money’ rating.
- In the maiden race, the talented Americanism has garnered overwhelming support.
- Keep an eye on Lilac in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup, who has handled long-distance travel well.
Kyoto 1R: 2-Year-Old Maiden (Dirt 1400m) – Argyll Shore
Projected 4th Favorite
Current Analysis
The key for Argyll Shore seems to be its mentality. According to comments from the Yasuda Sho stable, the horse “had a tendency to run angry,” suggesting a temperament prone to being upset during a race. The team addressed this by “waiting for its mood to settle and pushing the schedule back a week,” a deliberate adjustment prioritizing the horse’s condition. Physically, preparations are complete, with the final workout earning a “powerful stride” rating and an upward arrow (↗) indicating improving form.
Betting Angle
The recommendation is based on its improving trackwork and the measures taken by the stable to address its temperament. Trainer Yasuda Sho commented, “Looking ahead, if we can get a smooth trip in a good mood…” making the horse’s composure on race day the critical factor. The “powerful stride” seen in training suggests a natural affinity for dirt, and if the mental hurdles are cleared, its latent ability could be fully unleashed.
Kyoto 2R: 2-Year-Old Maiden (Dirt 1200m) – Kanekome Bright
Projected 7th Favorite | AI Rank: 3rd
Current Analysis
While projected as the 7th favorite, AI predictions place this horse 3rd, suggesting expert opinion may be higher than public odds. The Nakao Hidetoshi stable’s comment that “its movement has improved” is noteworthy. This is backed by training data, with the trackwork brief noting an “ambitious training regimen,” indicating good physical condition. The team also expects improvement at the start, commenting, “it should break from the gate better in its second race.”
Betting Angle
The recommendation stems from the clear expectation of improvement, as the stable explicitly states they “want to see a step forward.” The “ambitious training regimen” shows thorough preparation. Considering the potential value in the odds, this is a horse to watch closely.
Kyoto 3R: 2-Year-Old Maiden (芝1600m) – Super Busy
Pro Favorite Index
2%
Value for Money
201%
Current Analysis
Projected as the 12th favorite with a Pro Favorite Index of just 2%, this horse is a complete longshot, but its trackwork cannot be ignored. The final workout received high praise: “led, finished first, excellent movement.” The Tomomichi stable acknowledges challenges, stating, “it still has a delicate side,” but reports physical improvement: “its body has trimmed down.” The significant gap between its low popularity and strong training evaluation results in a “Value for Money” rating of 201%. The horse is clearly in better condition, making it a qualified dark horse.
Betting Angle
The recommendation is purely based on its outstanding trackwork despite being unpopular. While the stable remains cautious, the “excellent movement” in its workout is proof of its improved physical state. For those looking for a major upset, betting on this horse’s training form is a worthwhile gamble.
Kyoto 4R: 2-Year-Old Maiden (Dirt 1800m) – Americanism
Pro Favorite Index
46%
AI Win %
21.3%
Current Analysis
With a 46% Pro Favorite Index and a 21.3% AI-predicted win rate, this horse is the undisputed star of the maiden race. The Sugiyama Yoshitada stable is confident in its suitability, noting its “dirt-style running.” Importantly, this high rating comes even though the horse is not yet at peak condition. The stable commented it’s “still developing,” and the trackwork brief noted “lacks a bit of sharpness ↗,” suggesting room for improvement. To command such high ratings while still developing points to immense talent.
Betting Angle
The recommendation is based on its high potential and acknowledged suitability for dirt. Comments like “still developing” and “lacks a bit of sharpness,” while seemingly negative, are also proof of its raw talent to be the favorite despite not being fully tuned. A strong performance is expected right from its debut.
Kyoto 5R: 2-Year-Old Maiden (芝2000m) – Jun Primero
Pro Favorite Index: 30% | AI Rank: 3rd
Current Analysis
Highly rated for a debutant, with a 30% Pro Favorite Index and a 3rd place AI ranking. Assistant trainer Ishibashi from the Tomomichi stable analyzed, “It has high cardio and stamina,” and trainer Tomomichi himself commented, “Not a quick burster, but doesn’t tire.” The consensus is that this is a stamina-type horse. While the trackwork brief “lacks a bit of finishing kick” suggests a challenge in a sprint finish, the 2000m turf at Kyoto, which demands stamina, could play to its strengths. The stable also reports, “Its body has trimmed down considerably,” indicating it’s race-ready.
Betting Angle
The recommendation is based on the horse’s stamina, which is well-suited for the race conditions. As assistant Ishibashi noted, “If it can make its own move,” an aggressive race strategy that leverages its high cardio could very well lead to a debut victory.
Kyoto 6R: 3-Year-Olds & Up, 1-Win Class (Dirt 1200m) – Cafe Noir
Projected 3rd Favorite | AI Rank: 2nd
Current Analysis
A solid contender, ranked highly by both public and AI. The Ikee Yasutoshi stable suggests it’s not at 100%, stating, “There’s still a little room for improvement,” but expresses confidence in its ability: “It has the power to run well right away, and its condition is not bad.” The trackwork brief is rated “modest time but good extension ↗,” indicating that while the overall time wasn’t flashy, its finishing kick was sharp. The upward arrow (↗) also signals improving form, suggesting the stable believes its raw talent can overcome a slightly less-than-peak condition.
Betting Angle
The recommendation is based on the potential that the stable vouches for, asserting “it has the power to run well right away.” The “good extension” in training suggests its turn of foot will be effective in a real race. Despite the layoff, its condition appears solid.
Kyoto 7R: 3-Year-Olds & Up, 2-Win Class (Dirt 1200m) – Kurino Glory
Pro Favorite Index
3%
Value for Money
440%
Current Analysis
This might be today’s top value pick. With a Pro Favorite Index of just 3% and projected as the 16th favorite, it boasts an incredible “Value for Money” rating of 440%. While the market is cold, expert data and the stable are not so pessimistic. The Tani stable believes “it should be performing better given its ability,” suggesting a mismatch between its current popularity and actual talent. Backing this up, the trackwork brief is highly rated: “ambitious training regimen ↗.” Its condition is on the rise, and the team expects a turnaround.
Betting Angle
The recommendation is based on the market’s gross underestimation, as indicated by the “440% Value for Money” rating. With the trainer stating “it should be performing better” and the horse completing an “ambitious training regimen,” its ability and condition are likely far better than its odds suggest. Worth considering for a longshot bet.
Kyoto 8R: 3-Year-Olds & Up, 2-Win Class (芝1400m) – Holy Blossom
Pro Favorite Index
58%
AI Rank
1st
Current Analysis
With a 58% Pro Favorite Index and the top AI ranking, this horse has overwhelming support from experts. Though projected as the 2nd favorite, it’s the de facto star of this race. The Saito Takashi stable holds this horse in high regard, stating, “I think it showed its ability,” and is looking for a win here, adding, “This is a fresh start.” This expectation is supported by its training, with the trackwork brief rated “stable at a high level →,” indicating consistent, top-tier performance.
Betting Angle
The recommendation is based on its high reliability, reflected in the 58% Pro Favorite Index, and its “stable at a high level” condition. The stable’s comment “This is a fresh start” can be taken as a sign of their determination to win under these conditions, making it an ideal anchor for your bets.
Kyoto 9R: Kikugusho (芝2000m) – Kikkobello
Pro Favorite Index
64%
AI Win %
41.5%
Current Analysis
Arguably the most reliable anchor horse of the day. Its Pro Favorite Index is a commanding 64%, and its AI-predicted win rate is 41.5%, dominating the field. The Tomomichi stable’s comments are bullish: “Its tension is not high, and 2000 meters seems to suit it,” indicating no concerns about mentality or distance. The trackwork brief “full of energy →” confirms its perfect condition. The team has also addressed its one perceived weakness—the start—commenting that they have “practiced” the gate break to ensure it can perform at 100%.
Betting Angle
The recommendation is based on its absolute ability, shown by the 64% Pro Favorite Index, and its superb “full of energy” condition. With the stable having addressed its only known issue (the gate), and trainer Tomomichi confident that “2000 meters seems to suit it,” the distance increase is a plus. If it gets a clean start, it’s hard to see this horse failing.
Kyoto 10R: Amanohashidate S (Dirt 1800m) – Tripolitania
Pro Favorite Index
35%
Value for Money
310%
Current Analysis
Despite moving up in class, this horse is highly rated with a 35% Pro Favorite Index and a 2nd place AI ranking. The Uemura stable sees no issue with the class jump, stating, “We’re excited even with the promotion.” They also commented, “It seems fine even when taking kickback,” addressing a common concern in large fields and suggesting it has no weaknesses. The trackwork brief “light and agile movement →” confirms its excellent condition. With a “Value for Money” rating of 310%, this projected 3rd favorite is seen as a top contender by professionals, offering excellent value.
Betting Angle
The recommendation is based on its high potential, which has the stable “excited,” and its excellent 310% “Value for Money” rating. With “light and agile” trackwork and the ability to handle kickback, it can adapt to any race scenario. It has the potential to be competitive immediately at this higher class.
Kyoto 11R: Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1) (芝2200m) – Lilac
Value for Money
319%
Current Analysis
A high-value pick for the G1 stage. Projected as the 9th favorite, it has a “Value for Money” rating of 319%. Hailing from the Aizawa stable in Miho, this horse has traveled a long distance to Kyoto, but its trackwork brief “lively and energetic movement →” shows no signs of fatigue, indicating it’s in prime condition. The Aizawa stable is optimistic, saying, “There’s a chance.” The key to victory, they believe, is the “first-time jockey,” Yusuke Fujioka. Their analysis is that the horse “has a tendency to pull,” and success depends on the jockey’s skill: “if he can settle it and time the final push right.”
Betting Angle
The recommendation is based on the excellent value (319%) and its “lively and energetic” condition after long-distance travel. As the stable points out, the horse is ready. It all comes down to whether the new jockey can “settle” it. If things click, it has more than enough ability to challenge the top contenders in a G1.
Kyoto 12R: Doncaster Cup (芝1800m) – Gaiamente
Pro Favorite Index
55%
AI Win %
38.6%
Current Analysis
A fittingly dominant favorite to close out the day, with a 55% Pro Favorite Index and a 38.6% AI-predicted win rate. The Sugai Naosuke stable emphasizes its suitability for the Kyoto 1800m turf, calling it “a course that suits this horse.” The benefits of its last race are clear, with the team commenting, “it becomes sharper after a race.” True to their word, the trackwork brief notes “developing sharpness →,” showing it’s in precisely the condition they aimed for. Its AI rating is also a top-tier “A”.
Betting Angle
The recommendation is based on its top ratings from both professionals and AI, and the perfect alignment between the stable’s comments and its training performance, all pointing to “improvement after a race.” On a course the stable is confident “suits this horse,” if it runs to its ability, it is highly likely to be in the winner’s circle.
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