Pro Analysis for November 16, 2025
On November 16, 2025, at Fukushima Racecourse, professional analysis reveals interesting trends. Significant “gaps” exist between the “expected popularity” among general fans and the “Pro Main Bet Index” from experts. Horses ranked lower in expected popularity but exceeding 20% in professional indices, or top favorites with over 200% “bargain potential,” indicate that professionals are keenly observing significant improvements in condition or drastic changes due to condition adjustments, which are often missed by the general public. The focus is on the “present” rather than past performance. This article delves into the core reasons behind the professional recommendations for 12 horses, based on a thorough examination of the latest training data, stable comments, and pedigree backgrounds.
Value Bet
Bargain Potential170%
Expected Popularity3rd
Despite being ranked 3rd in expected popularity, Jansi shows a “bargain potential” of 170%, indicating value. The most significant factor is the “condition change.” Assistant trainer Ryo Shimizu suggested, “Its pacing stride seems better suited for dirt,” indicating a switch from turf to dirt. Furthermore, “It gets distracted by others and lacks focus, so we will try blinkers,” showing a clear measure to improve focus with blinkers. The effect of the blinkers and the surface change is reflected in its training. On November 12, its woodchip training showed “relaxed movement,” indicating good condition. Its pedigree, with sire More Than Ready and dam sire Forestry, suggests adaptability to fast-paced dirt racing, supporting the stable’s assessment of “dirt suitability.” The 170% “bargain potential” likely stems from its lack of focus in turf races. The professional index highly rates the possibility of the “double correction” of a surface change and blinker application being successful.
Fukushima Race 2 – 3-Year-Olds and Up, 1 Win Class
Value Bet
Bargain Potential234%
Expected Popularity4th
This is one of today’s notable value horses. Against an expected popularity of 4th, the professional index calculated a very high “bargain potential” of 234%. Its pedigree, with sire Daiwa Major and dam sire Casino Drive, is attractive for Fukushima’s dirt 1700m, which demands power and forward running. The final workout on November 12 (Miho Wood) received a strict “sharpness slightly lacking” assessment, but trainer Toru Kurita’s comments are positive: “Race content has progressed. If it can run stably remembering its previous race.” This shows anticipation of the horse’s learning ability and growth. There is a slight discrepancy between the training assessment and stable comments. However, the professional index’s high rating of 234% cannot be ignored. This indicates that factors not reflected in times, such as physical development and the “progress” mentioned by the stable, are being given more weight. Given its underdog status, this “gap” is precisely where the value lies.
Fukushima Race 3 – 3-Year-Olds and Up, 1 Win Class
Key Bet
Bargain Potential161%
Pro Index69%
Expected Popularity1st
This is a candidate for a key bet today. Despite being the 1st favorite in expected popularity, it boasts an overwhelming reliability with a professional main bet index of 69%. The basis for this confidence is a clear “improvement” in its condition. Assistant trainer Kanesaki stated, “Expect improvement after racing,” and this is supported by the training staff’s top-tier evaluation of “improved after one race (↗)” during its woodchip training on November 12. Furthermore, the comment, “This is a distance where it has achieved results,” is encouraging, indicating a favorable condition change. The 69% professional main bet index reflects not just ability but also a perfect condition for this race after “one race.” Its “bargain potential” of 161% is unusual for a 1st favorite, suggesting professionals see “this as the main race.”
Fukushima Race 4 – 3-Year-Olds and Up, Steeplechase Maiden
Key Bet
Pro Index91%
This is considered the “most reliable key bet” of the day, with a professional main bet index of an astonishing 91%. Its completeness as a steeplechase horse seems to have significantly increased. Trainer Satoshi Ogasa acknowledged its technical growth, stating, “Its jumping has also improved.” In its final workout on November 12 (Miho Wood), with jockey Yutaka Oegawara (who will ride in the race) aboard, it displayed “powerful leg action.” Both its movement and condition are perfect. Its sire, Gold Ship, also supports the demanding 2750m stamina-requiring course at Fukushima. The horse’s reliability stems from its “suitability” and “completeness.” With its flat racing ability and steeplechase technique (“jumping has also improved”) now aligned, the 91% index signifies absolute confidence in its completeness.
Fukushima Race 5 – 3-Year-Olds and Up, Steeplechase Maiden
Place Bet
Pro Index33%
Expected Popularity1st
This horse appears ready to meet the expectations of being the 1st favorite. Its professional main bet index of 33% provides sufficient evaluation as a place bet candidate. The horse’s greatest strength is its “flat racing ability.” Trainer Hideo Take stated, “Its flat racing ability is superior,” which is a decisive advantage in steeplechase classes. He also vouched for its “good jumping,” confirming its steeplechase suitability. In its workout on November 12 (Ritto CW), jockey Takada (who will ride in the race) was aboard, and the horse showed “lively movement,” demonstrating a good condition. As a world-class pedigree with sire Deep Impact and dam sire Galileo, its potential is unquestionable. In steeplechase maiden races, having both “superior flat racing ability” and “good jumping” naturally leads to results.
Fukushima Race 6 – 2-Year-Old Newcomer
Key Bet
Pro Index33%
Expected Popularity1st
Despite being a newcomer, this horse has garnered high praise from experts, with an expected popularity of 1st and a professional main bet index of 33%. Its pedigree, with sire Satono Aladdin and dam sire Daiwa Major, suggests a combination of power and speed suitable for dirt. Trainer Kenichi Shono expressed confidence in both its condition and suitability, commenting, “Sufficient training volume” and “Dirt seems to suit.” True to his words, its final workout on November 12 at Ritto CW showed “above-average movement,” demonstrating its readiness for its debut. Predicting newcomer races relies on pedigree, training, and stable comments. This horse aligns positively in all three aspects, forming the basis for its 33% professional main bet index.
Fukushima Race 7 – 3-Year-Olds and Up, 1 Win Class
Value Bet
Pro Index20%
Expected Popularity5th
The expected popularity of 5th may be a clear underestimation. Trainer Takeshi Otake praised its condition, stating, “Training movement is faultless.” Its final workout on November 12 at Miho Wood also showed good times and movement, rated as “good condition.” Its strong pedigree, with sire Kizuna and dam sire King Kamehameha, shows signs of maturing. This horse exemplifies a typical case where professional evaluation (training, stable comments) directly contradicts market evaluation (expected popularity). The market is influenced by past results, while professionals are evaluating its “current” excellent condition. The 20% professional main bet index is a noteworthy figure among lower-ranked horses, making it an excellent target.
Fukushima Race 8 – 3-Year-Olds and Up, 1 Win Class
Key Bet
Pro Index50%
Expected Popularity1st
With a professional main bet index of 50%, B. Kong is considered highly reliable, even though it is the 1st favorite in expected popularity. Trainer Masahiro Kikuzawa made a very strong comment: “Gas has been released after one race,” and “Improvement seems significant.” This suggests that the previous race was a perfect stepping stone, and this race is the main target. Its final workout on November 12 at Miho Wood recorded a good time of 11.5 seconds for the last furlong, rated as “sustained good condition.” Its pedigree, with sire Eishin Flash and dam sire Black Tide, is ideal for utilizing sustained speed on Fukushima’s tight turns. The high 50% professional index directly reflects the credibility of the stable’s comment about “significant improvement.”
Fukushima Race 9 – Fukushima 2-Year-Old Stakes
Value Bet
Bargain Potential239%
Pro Index53%
Expected Popularity1st
This is a value-packed horse, featured in the article’s title. Despite being the 1st favorite in expected popularity, it has a high professional main bet index of 53% and an exceptional “bargain potential” of 239%. This index signifies that “professionals evaluate its win rate as significantly higher than the odds suggest.” The primary reason for this is the stable’s assessment. Trainer Kenichi Fujioka commented, “The graded race was a good performance.” While general fans focus on the finishing order, the stable and professionals evaluate it as “a valuable performance against strong opponents.” This difference in perception creates the 239% value. Its final workout on November 12 at Ritto CW was impressive, rated as “powerful leg action” with a remarkable 11.0-second final furlong, indicating perfect condition. Its pedigree, with sire Declaration of War and dam sire Dance in the Dark, and the stable’s comment that “1200m suits,” confirm its suitability for Fukushima’s 1200m course.
Fukushima Race 10 – Sanriku Special
Value Bet
Bargain Potential285%
Pro Index23%
Expected Popularity7th
This horse boasts the highest “bargain potential” among today’s recommendations. Despite being ranked 7th in expected popularity, it holds a professional main bet index of 23%. The “bargain potential,” calculated by comparing professional expected odds, is an astonishing 285%. Professionals highly rate this horse due to its “growth potential.” The stable comments indicate, “The horse has grown after its subsequent rest. We can look forward to it even in this step-up race.” This is not mere lip service; specialized race reporters also gave it a “○ (buy)” rating, supporting its growth potential with the comment, “Can compete in the 2-win class.” Its condition is also perfect. The final workout on November 12 at Ritto CW showed a sharp finish in the last furlong (11.3 seconds), earning an A rating of “improved with this workout.” Its sire, Satono Diamond, excels in long-distance races, and the 2600m distance will further aid its awakening. The 285% value arises from the difference in perspective between general fans who only look at past performance data and professionals who observe the horse’s “current state.” The stable, training, and reporter evaluations all point to “growth” and “competitiveness.”
Fukushima Race 11 – Fukushima Minyu Cup
Place Bet
Bargain Potential168%
Pro Index62%
Expected Popularity4th
While considered an outsider at 4th in expected popularity, Action Plan has a “Pro Contender Index” of 62%, indicating a high probability of finishing in the top three and making it a reliable choice for a place bet. The key concern is its condition after a long layoff. The training report on November 12 noted “powerful despite being a bit heavy.” While this might seem like a concern, the accompanying “training commentary” clarifies, “Although the physique feels substantial after training, the movement itself is not overly heavy. It is in a condition above passing grade.” This suggests it is capable of performing well despite the break. Its pedigree, with sire Real Impact and dam sire Turtle Bowl, shows strong affinity for Fukushima’s demanding dirt track of 1700m with its undulations. The 168% value is also attractive, making it an ideal horse to anchor quinella and trifecta bets.
Fukushima Race 12 – 3-Year-Olds and Up, 1 Win Class
Value Bet
Bargain Potential280%
Pro Index29%
Expected Popularity5th
This horse is another value pick comparable to Satono Sotiras. Despite being ranked 5th in expected popularity, it achieved a professional main bet index of 29% and an exceptional “bargain potential” of 280%. This high rating is supported by the stable’s confidence. Trainer Shinsuke Hashiguchi commented, “Can perform better than the previous race,” indicating a clear improvement. This is further validated by its final workout on November 13 at Ritto CW, where it showed a sharp 11.8-second final furlong and received a high rating of “sustained good condition.” Its pedigree, with sire Mikki Rocket and dam sire Deep Impact, will shine on the 2000m turf course. Given that both the professional index and stable comments suggest “this is the real race,” the 280% value is unmissable.