[Updated: 2026-01-23 16:58:47] Revised by AI Assistant
Analysis by AI
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Forecasting the Spring Classics! This in-depth analysis scrutinizes the highly anticipated maiden races, where future G1 contenders gather to begin their journey towards racing glory.
- Key Takeaways: Future Stars to Watch
- Late Autumn 2025: The Crossroads for POG and Classic Aspirations
- Tokyo 5R 2-Year-Old Maiden (Turf 1600m) ── Battle for Mile Supremacy
- Kyoto 6R 2-Year-Old Maiden (Dirt 1800m) ── In Search of the Sand Monster
- Tokyo 4R 2-Year-Old Maiden (Dirt 1400m) ── A Pure Speed Showdown
- Kyoto 5R 2-Year-Old Maiden (Turf 1600m) ── The Ultimate Showdown of Late Speed
Key Takeaways: Future Stars to Watch
Tokyo 5R (Turf 1600m): Valoark Shines Bright
Valoark receives high praise across his pedigree, training performance, and jockey selection, demonstrating a remarkable level of completeness that positions him ahead of his rivals in this crucial maiden.
Kyoto 6R (Dirt 1800m): Matenro Hour, a Dirt Powerhouse
Matenro Hour, boasting an exceptional American dirt pedigree, stands out as the overwhelming favorite in this challenging contest on the sand.
Tokyo 4R (Dirt 1400m): Ganda’s Dominant Speed
Ganda showcases outstanding speed capabilities, earning him a decisive lead in AI predictions for this race, marking him as a top prospect.
Kyoto 5R (Turf 1600m): Red Rigare’s G1 Potential Unleashed
Red Rigare recorded an extraordinary training time, hinting at a potential G1-class talent and immense future prospects on the turf.
Decoding the Key to Success
Success in these competitive maiden races often hinges on two critical factors: the specialized “external stable training” (外厩調整) for Northern Farm-bred horses and the crucial “final furlong” (ラスト1ハロン) times recorded during their workout sessions.
Late Autumn 2025: The Crossroads for POG and Classic Aspirations
The maiden races held on the final weekend of November 2025 carry immense significance, serving as a pivotal gauge for both the eagerly anticipated Spring Classics and the burgeoning Dirt Triple Crown series. Horses making their debut at this time are typically highly gifted individuals, having been carefully nurtured for future greatness. This makes these races a focal point for both POG (Paddock Odds Game) enthusiasts and seasoned bettors. This comprehensive article delves into the crucial prediction points for the November 29, 2025 maiden races, meticulously examining the pedigree, training regimen, stable comments, and the latest AI predictions for each prospective runner. Our goal is to identify the most promising contenders destined for victory, with a thorough dissection of the potential of standout prospects like Matenro Hour, Valoark, and Ganda.
Tokyo 5R 2-Year-Old Maiden (Turf 1600m) ── Battle for Mile Supremacy
Start Time: 12:10 JST
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Course: Tokyo Turf 1600m (Left-handed, C Course)
Course Characteristics: Featuring one of Japan’s longest straightaways, this course is a true test of pure racing ability, demanding exceptional burst speed and sustained acceleration.
Key Contender Analysis: Valoark’s Potential and Pitfalls
Horse Name:Valoark (Colt 2, Miho, Tetsuya Kimura Stable)
Pedigree Background: Combining the stamina of his sire, Derby winner Rey de Oro, with the forwardness and power of his dam’s sire, Kizuna. The maternal line further boasts influential names like Symboli Kris S and Lady Blond, contributing to a genetic makeup ideally suited for the long Tokyo straight, balancing both sustained effort and a powerful late kick.
Training Analysis: In his final workout on the Miho Woodchip (W) course, Valoark effortlessly kept pace with a 2-win class elder horse. His final furlong time of 11.5 seconds underscores his excellent tractability and explosive acceleration. Stable staff express strong confidence, stating, “He won’t run a shameful race on debut.”
AI Evaluation & Odds Analysis: AI predictions place him first with a 25.5% win rate and a 56.5% place rate. He stands as the most reliable anchor for any betting strategy.
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Analyzing the Challengers: Rational Point and Criollo Gold
- Rational Point: Inheriting the blood of his sire, Danon Kingly (a Tokyo specialist), high course adaptability is anticipated. His training included leading and finishing abreast of an elder horse, showcasing his stamina and strong mental fortitude.
- Criollo Gold: A progeny of Lord Kanaloa out of an Orfevre mare, he holds latent speed and explosive power. However, there are noted temperament concerns and doubts regarding his ability to handle the distance. A slow pace could allow his forward momentum to be a significant advantage.
Unearthing the Dark Horses: Longing Celine and Genten
- Longing Celine: A powerful and sustained speed-oriented pedigree, by Maurice out of a Daiwa Major mare. She recorded excellent times in her workouts, and her AI predicted return expectation is notably high.
- Genten: A Silver State progeny, who clocked blazing times on the uphill 坂路 (Sakaro) course. His speed is first-class. If jockey D. Lane can mitigate his difficult mouth, a wire-to-wire victory is a distinct possibility.
Tokyo 5R Prediction Conclusion
The keys to victory lie in “overall readiness” and “suitability for the Tokyo course.” With exceptional training performance and the engagement of Christophe Lemaire, Valoark is our top pick.
| Horse Name | Sire | Dam Sire | Training Evaluation | AI Win % | Overall Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valoark | Rey de Oro | Kizuna | S (W 11.5) | 25.5% | ◎ |
| Genten | Silver State | Tiz Wonderful | A (坂 51.3) | 19.8% | ○ |
| Rational Point | Danon Kingly | Awesome Gambler | A (W 先着) | 9.7% | ▲ |
| Longing Celine | Maurice | Daiwa Major | B+ (W 66.6) | 20.5% | △ |
| Criollo Gold | Lord Kanaloa | Orfevre | B (気性懸念) | 5.7% | ☆ |
Kyoto 6R 2-Year-Old Maiden (Dirt 1800m) ── In Search of the Sand Monster
Start Time: 12:55 JST
Course: Kyoto Dirt 1800m (Right-handed)
Course Characteristics: This track features unique undulations, demanding both stamina and versatility. It often attracts American-bred horses and those with strong pedigrees suited to dirt racing.
The Overwhelming Favorite: Matenro Hour
Horse Name:Matenro Hour (Colt 2, Ritto, Yuichi Fukunaga Stable)
Pedigree Analysis: His sire, Constitution, combined with dam’s sire Ghostzapper, creates a superb dirt pedigree perfectly blending adaptability to Japan’s deep sand and raw speed.
Training and Stable Expectations: Clocking a final furlong of 11.5 seconds in his CW (Course Work) workout, this large colt, weighing over 500kg, exhibits remarkable turn of foot, proving the high performance of his engine. Trainer Yuichi Fukunaga expresses considerable confidence, and AI prediction odds of 2.1x solidify his status as the undisputed favorite.
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Contenders: Bartragatz and Martingale
- Bartragatz: With a sire like Real Steel and dam’s sire Kurofune, this pedigree is highly attuned to dirt racing. His training movements are exceptional, and the horsemanship of jockey C. Demuro adds further appeal. He is the primary threat to Matenro Hour.
- Martingale: By Sinister Minister out of a South Vigorous mare, this pedigree is a true “epitome of Japanese dirt racing.” He recorded an astonishing 11.2 seconds for his final furlong in a CW workout, showcasing incredible acceleration.
Dark Horses: Justin Apollo and Pescador
- Justin Apollo: Combining the influential dirt sires Sinister Minister and Gold Allure. He finished abreast of a 3-win class elder horse in training, confirming his substantial ability.
- Pescador: An American-bred colt by Uncle Mo. A powerful type, his movements on the CW track are above average.
Kyoto 6R Prediction Conclusion
A “two-strong battle” between Matenro Hour and Bartragatz appears highly probable. However, the sharp acceleration of Martingale and the consistency of Justin Apollo could potentially challenge the leading duo.
| Horse Name | Sire | Dam Sire | Training Evaluation | AI Predicted Odds | Overall Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matenro Hour | Constitution | Ghostzapper | A (CW 11.5) | 2.1倍 | ◎ |
| Bartragatz | Real Steel | Kurofune | A (坂 53.3) | 2.4倍 | ○ |
| Martingale | Sinister Minister | South Vigorous | B+ (CW 11.2) | 6.9倍 | ▲ |
| Justin Apollo | Sinister Minister | Gold Allure | B+ (併入) | 6.2倍 | △ |
Tokyo 4R 2-Year-Old Maiden (Dirt 1400m) ── A Pure Speed Showdown
Start Time: 11:20 JST
Course: Tokyo Dirt 1400m (Left-handed)
Course Characteristics: Starting on the turf track, outside drawn horses often gain an advantage by building speed quickly. Smooth early speed is directly correlated with finishing position on this course.
Focus on Ganda’s Raw Speed
Horse Name:Ganda (Colt 2, Miho, Makoto Saito Stable)
Pedigree Analysis: A hybrid pedigree combining the stamina of his sire, Hokko Tarumae, with the explosive power of his dam’s sire, Orfevre.
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AI Prediction: With a 24.5% win rate and predicted odds of 1.5x, Ganda shows overwhelming statistics. His speed capability is judged to be a cut above the rest in this field.
Chasing Pack: Fluorite and October Nine
- Fluorite: By the promising sire Leontes, out of a Pioneerof the Nile mare, representing a modern, up-and-coming bloodline. The engagement of jockey D. Lane signifies considerable confidence from the stable. AI predictions show a high win rate, closely trailing Ganda.
- October Nine: A Copano Rickey progeny, with M. Barzalona engaged to ride. His excellent condition is a major asset, aiming for an upset with the jockey’s skillful guidance.
Dark Horse: Rouge Riviera
- A small filly by New Year’s Day. If she can capitalize on her early maturity, she could be an interesting contender. She also ranks high in AI predicted return expectations.
Kyoto 5R 2-Year-Old Maiden (Turf 1600m) ── The Ultimate Showdown of Late Speed
Start Time: 12:25 JST
Course: Kyoto Turf 1600m (Right-handed, C Course)
Course Characteristics: This course demands powerful acceleration using the downhill slope from the 3rd to 4th corners, with explosive burst speed in the final straight determining the victor.
Red Rigare’s Astonishing Training Time
Horse Name:Red Rigare (Colt 2, Ritto, Takashi Saito Stable)
Pedigree Analysis: A successful combination of sire Maurice and dam’s sire Deep Impact, known for producing top-class turf runners.
Training Analysis: He recorded an exceptional final furlong time of 11.0 seconds in his CW workout. This is a figure that even open-class elder horses struggle to achieve, indicating his immeasurable potential.
Contenders: Satono Scepter and Flare of Sense
- Satono Scepter: By Kingman out of a Deep Impact mare, blending European speed with Japanese explosiveness. His training includes keeping pace with an open-class elder horse, demonstrating high readiness. With jockey C. Demuro, he is expected to contend for the win on debut.
- Flare of Sense: A progeny of the promising new sire Poetic Flare. He shows nimble movements on the uphill 坂路 (Sakaro) course, exhibiting strong acceleration in his laps.
Kyoto 5R Prediction Conclusion
While Red Rigare‘s training performance is remarkably impressive, Satono Scepter‘s high level of readiness suggests a potential match race between these two formidable contenders.
| Horse Name | Sire | Dam Sire | Training Evaluation | AI Predicted Odds | Overall Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Rigare | Maurice | Deep Impact | S (CW 11.0) | 2.5倍 | ◎ |
| Satono Scepter | Kingman | Deep Impact | A (CW 11.5) | 3.1倍 | ○ |
| Flare of Sense | Poetic Flare | Fenomeno | B+ (坂 53.8) | 5.5倍 | ▲ |
| ルクスキャンディ | ハービンジャー |
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